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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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Most likely we're not going to get a big widespread event (..as everybody can conclude). But we can get a significant event whereas a few luck folks can get 3 or 4". If things can trend just a little bit better (QPF wise) we could see pockets of higher amounts. Still think the snow ratios will be higher than 10:1 once the snow starts and if it can continue to snow. Again we just need to see the precip amounts increase a little more for go time.   

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18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

What's your honest thoughts/ excitement level at this point , for NC peeps?

I'm fine with this type of system producing, but it has to dig hard into the base of the trough.  Don't get the hard dig and/or too positive tilt with the trough and it's flurries.  Proceeding with caution, but we have a shot

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10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah, it's kind of strange how many folks are not commenting. Of course this could end up as a none event, but we also have a real possibility of getting a few inches of snow.   

Just hard to get excited at all when you've gone 0 for the last 7 events where multiple models showed you getting something at one point, and this one is following the same fate. Hope my area can get something but models have called wolf too much and I've learned my lesson.:rolleyes:

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

The NAM would be good for your location. Would start as rain but then change over to snow before it ended. with the storm developing off the coast, you could get some good rates before it ended. 

That last frame of the NAM run is about perfect for RDU to the east with the coastal low placement thatfar enough south, it would keep the snow going enough to change it from a dusting -2" type event to a 3-5" type event....if the NAM keeps that location in runs going further it will be a decent hit for central and interior eastern NC. 

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

He’ll declare a bust for hours and then get half a foot

For you guys its all about that lee side trough forming and well the models are not gonna be able to really key in on that kind of feature till maybe a day out.....so I wouldnt worry to much about how little it shows in this range for your area cause if the coastal pops and there is a lee side trough you guys will likely jackpot. These are all features the models will flip flop on a lot the next few days. 

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The NAM is a good look with the cutoff at 84hrs. That happened due to the trend SW w/ the incoming trough, allowing it to tilt netural and cutoff. If we see some increased trends in this direction, it could go from a nuisance 1 or 2 inch frontal/clipper type event to something more significant, as it will allow the coastal low to develop stronger/closer to shore and throw more moisture back. With the ridge over the west, wouldn't be surprised to see this trend in a favorable direction. Given the lack of a favorable Atlantic setup, however, it will likely be a quick hitter and prevent something major.

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