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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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19 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

You should setup shop in Johnson City man. 

Shift the euro 3 counties west and millions of people (Charlotte, Winston, Greensboro) are in the light snow possibilities. It's only Saturday and the slightest change could lead to many people scoring that really haven't done well this winter. Close call at this stage IMO. Not trending in the right direction, but far from a cave of disappointment. GFS would about give some of Wilkes 1" maybe more if it trends wetter. 

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Interesting through 72 hours how the event west of the blue ridge differs so much on the euro and gfs. I like my chances with the cold in place with moisture trying to cross versus rain/wind trying to cross the blue ridge. Doubt it trends wetter, but man if it did, would be nice 1-2" all snow north of i40. Currently only expecting flurries. 

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57 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Euro is spitting hundredths where as most of us are looking for something in the tenths. 

East of 95 it’s .1 to .3 qpf so a solid 1-3” snow and possibly higher with better ratios. Models seem to agree on .1 in qpf if you average them together. UK and the Euro are the wettest two with up to .3 in places. 

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RAH Sat. afternoon:

Srong jet dynamics and deep layer frontogenesis accompanying the 
upper jet/front and related low level frontal zone should be 
sufficient to support at least a light precipitation event over cntl 
NC Tue night-Wed. That precipitation would likely fall in the form 
of light rain or rain mixed with snow early Tue night, since 
temperatures will have warmed considerably, into the upr 40s to lwr 
50s for most Tue afternoon; and the models are typically too quick 
in surging cold air masses east of the cntl Appalachians of VA/NC. 
However, partial thickness values and boundary layer temperatures 
are both forecast to become supportive of a west to east changeover 
to snow late Tue night into Wednesday. If the trough aloft is weaker 
and more positively-tilted as it approaches NC, then a light rain, 
to inconsequential snow event would result.  
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26 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH Sat. afternoon:


Srong jet dynamics and deep layer frontogenesis accompanying the 
upper jet/front and related low level frontal zone should be 
sufficient to support at least a light precipitation event over cntl 
NC Tue night-Wed. That precipitation would likely fall in the form 
of light rain or rain mixed with snow early Tue night, since 
temperatures will have warmed considerably, into the upr 40s to lwr 
50s for most Tue afternoon; and the models are typically too quick 
in surging cold air masses east of the cntl Appalachians of VA/NC. 
However, partial thickness values and boundary layer temperatures 
are both forecast to become supportive of a west to east changeover 
to snow late Tue night into Wednesday. If the trough aloft is weaker 
and more positively-tilted as it approaches NC, then a light rain, 
to inconsequential snow event would result.  

This is the kiss of death for me.  I learned my lesson last January.  The influx of cold air will be slower than modeled (see Cold Rain's essay).

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This makes me want to go old school and walk outside the day of the potential event and let my chickens (if I had any) tell me what it is gonna do, but it is way more fun reading the threads.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk



My chickens eat like the world is ending every day. But I’ll Ask them what’s up with the system mid week.


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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

18z NAM is even more sharper than it's 12z run. At hour 84 it has this (which is better than the GFS):

 

aaaa.png

Yeah it's a decent look all things considered, it may even look similar to past EURO runs. Of course, we need to wait a few more cycles to see if its legit. 

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7 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Yeah it's a decent look all things considered, it may even look similar to past EURO runs. Of course, we need to wait a few more cycles to see if its legit. 

I was just looking into this. It is very similar to yesterday’s 12z euro upper levels. This euro run dropped 6+ NE of Charlotte 9D55D2D5-37B1-4CCB-A8A1-B44D24F08B71.thumb.png.2efdbdf4977405d0bfbb88f5d8d0116a.png

A5EA5D32-1D7A-4EA1-BA16-A0FD70EBF11C.thumb.png.b4fa43d0a04c8fb565b9a8fed45f1484.png

 

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