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2018 General Severe Weather

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Could be some isolated severe storms in central and eastern NC thjis afternoon into the evening...

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through
early this evening. The primary severe weather hazards will be hail
to the size of quarters and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe
weather threat appears greatest between 3 PM and 8 PM.
 

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I had a good storm last night. ~.60 rain, high winds, and some 1/4" hail mixed in. The rain was great. It had been some time since I had anything significant. 

Me too sir, GFS in the LR has some good precip forcast for mid month and beyond.

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21 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Me too sir, GFS in the LR has some good precip forcast for mid month and beyond.

Yeah the 16 day total precip on the GFS looks good. The nice thing is the precip comes from multiple events, so the odds of us getting something is high. Also if we can get (and keep getting) widespread rains across the whole SE, this would help keep major heat waves from forming.  

 

GFSrainMay2018.png

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On 5/17/2018 at 9:36 PM, shaggy said:

They're lucky it wasn't a stronger tornado. Took a direct hit.

 

That was some of the worst video footage I’ve ever seen.  My man filmed the dashboard as much as the twister.  But like you said, they got lucky!

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< Previous MD
MD 501 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0501
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

   Areas affected...Southern Virginia...Eastern and Central North
   Carolina...Far Northern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231951Z - 232215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage threat is expected to develop
   across parts of southern Virginia into central and eastern North
   Carolina to far northern South Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front in
   southern Virginia with a moist airmass south of the front across
   much of central and eastern North Carolina. Surface dewpoints
   generally range from the mid 60s to lower 70s F with the RAP
   estimating MLCAPE of 1500 to 2500 J/kg. According to the RAP, 0-3 km
   lapse rates have increased into the 7.5 to 8.0 C/km range across
   much of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This suggests
   that conditions will support a marginal wind damage threat. The
   threat should maximize near peak heating. Deep-layer shear appears
   too weak to warrant issuing a weather watch.

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...Southern Appalachians to Carolinas...
 
  Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates, as noted in 12Z observed soundings from locations such as Nashville and Atlanta, will continue to advect eastward toward the region.

A mid-level shortwave trough and associated belt of modestly enhanced flow aloft will spread east/southeastward today over the region and influence deep convective development within a moist/moderately unstable environment along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary.

Initial thunderstorm intensification should occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians vicinity as well as near the front, with the potential that storms will somewhat organize into clusters and small linear segments in the presence of around 30 kt effective shear.  Damaging winds will be the most common hazard.

day1otlk_1300.gif.3f7b90b4f52cb7125469bc41fdaa6901.gif

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Here is one I took in Franklin, NC yesterday afternoon looking northeast as a cell passed the outskirts of the town. The storm didn't do much damage in Macon County, but it strengthened and became severe in the usual spots in Oconee County, SC and southeastward from there.

wx 2018 0626 shelfcloud.jpg

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If a squall line comes in from the northeast, is it a nor'easter?  Birmingham area had numerous storm damage reports.

 

PL1JSqg.png

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8 hours ago, Chinook said:

If a squall line comes in from the northeast, is it a nor'easter?  Birmingham area had numerous storm damage reports.

 

PL1JSqg.png

In fact, with storm reports from this stretching from Chattanooga to Mobile (and all places in between), this qualifies as a Derecho. At this latitude, I imagine to have an organized QLCS propagate such a distance from NE to SW in late June is pretty anomalous. 

Sadly, one person was killed while several people were injured. :(

https://www.al.com/expo/news/erry-2018/06/0d2d6a3a666396/storms_down_trees_power_lines.html

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Looks like north/central Georgia could get a good squall line soon if the HRRR is correct.Tornado watch up for NW GA.

Very unusual this is more a mid April-May set up not the middle of simmer.Very low heights,cut off low way south.

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1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Looks like north/central Georgia could get a good squall line soon if the HRRR is correct.Tornado watch up for NW GA.

Very unusual this is more a mid April-May set up not the middle of simmer.Very low heights,cut off low way south.

I came hurrying over here for that very reason. I was a little astounded to see that tornado watch to my northwest when there's nothing in GA yet. I do see some rather ugly storms up in TN, is that what they're worried about?

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1 hour ago, Tanith said:

I came hurrying over here for that very reason. I was a little astounded to see that tornado watch to my northwest when there's nothing in GA yet. I do see some rather ugly storms up in TN, is that what they're worried about?

The squall like is still in KY heading south,HRRR still has it entering GA around daybreak.

Got some warnings in the NC mountains one the 1st line.

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Well last night's storms have held their strength and are coming through now. A ton of lightning and a pretty awesome shelf cloud with them. They were sub-severe though by the time they reached here (only winds of 30-40 MPH).

That said, I'm surprised there's some decent clearing behind them. That may bold well for a 2nd or 3rd round later today...

20180721_1130_sat_vis_mgm.jpg

 

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12z NAM still shows an impressive 4000+ J/KG of CAPE later today and LIs of -11 to -12. It also develops a 2nd squall line this afternoon that will dive SE over many of the same areas.

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The HRRR wants to form up another squall line west of I-95 in eastern NC, central/E SC early Sunday morning.Looks more scattered to the west in nature during the evening.

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   Mesoscale Discussion 1122
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

   Areas affected...northeast Alabama...east Tennessee...northern
   Georgia...western North Carolina and western South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211937Z - 212200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to
   develop this afternoon over a portion of the southern Appalachian
   region. Some of the storms will become capable of producing
   downbursts winds and possibly some hail. Though a severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance is possible, it remains uncertain
   whether storm coverage will become sufficient.

   DISCUSSION...This afternoon isolated storms are in the process of
   developing along an old modifying outflow boundary from northeast AL
   into middle and east TN. Other storms are expected to initiate over
   the higher terrain of east TN and the western Carolinas. The surface
   layer in vicinity of the outflow boundary continues to destabilize
   with diabatic warming boosting MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg based on
   latest objective analysis. WV imagery shows a band of deeper ascent
   accompanying a vorticity maximum spreading southeast through east
   TN, along with a mid-level jet that is contributing to 35-45 kt
   effective bulk shear. The greater storm coverage will likely remain
   confined to eastern KY into northeast TN where vertical wind shear
   and instability are weaker. Storms developing farther south across
   much of the mesoscale discussion area will probably remain more
   isolated to widely scattered, but some of the storms could acquire
   mid-level updraft rotation, and a few instances of downburst wind
   and hail will be possible. In addition to expected isolated storm
   coverage, another potential limiting factor for a more robust severe
   threat is weak mid-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, convective
   trends will continue to be monitored next couple hours for a
   possible WW issuance over a portion of this region.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 07/21/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35858216 35178190 34648253 33768365 32598476 33088552
               34508591 35798518 36248346 35858216 

image.png

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Atmosphere has recovered nicely. Managed a late day high of 89*F after several hours of clear skies, with dewpoints having pooled back into the mid 70s.

The anvils from the storms developing to the west are blowing in now.

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It looks like a tornado and ping ping size hail has been reported with the cell near Opelika, headed towards Phenix City and Columbus 

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