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Red1976Red

2018 General Severe Weather

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In my continuing effort to complain about the confusing severe weather warnings, I give you Kate Garner on Fox 8.  When showing today's forecast that had a marginal risk over the Triad tomorrow, she explained it like this.  "There is a chance of severe weather over the Triad tomorrow but the storms will only be marginally severe." Several of you commented previously that the on-air Mets would explain the confusing levels to the public. It's not looking good from here. 

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9 hours ago, jburns said:

In my continuing effort to complain about the confusing severe weather warnings, I give you Kate Garner on Fox 8.  When showing today's forecast that had a marginal risk over the Triad tomorrow, she explained it like this.  "There is a chance of severe weather over the Triad tomorrow but the storms will only be marginally severe." Several of you commented previously that the on-air Mets would explain the confusing levels to the public. It's not looking good from here. 

I agree; they should use severe light; 1/3 less severe than our regular severe.

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Too much stratification.  General T-storms, Slight Risk, Moderate Risk, and High Risk is a sufficient structure.  You don't need marginal risk, elevated risk, enhanced risk, intense risk, required minimum risk, alternate risk, and super insane absurdly maximized risk.

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Updated SPC disco 

mcd0221.gif.1b29155dd0dfbb0c2b49e16298d00684.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0221
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 04 2018

   Areas affected...the Delmarva into eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041727Z - 042000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms will form this afternoon and a few could
   contain enhanced gusty winds.

   DISCUSSION...CU fields continue to increase with daytime heating
   ahead of a cold front currently extending from western NJ into
   central NC. A few deeper showers were already organized along the
   front from eastern PA into NJ, with gusty winds noted along the
   leading edge. Scattered showers should continue to deepen across
   southeast VA into NC, with thunderstorms expected. While surface
   winds are already strong in association with the front, any
   thunderstorm downdrafts may augment wind speeds to near-severe
   levels locally.

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D4 severe risk for VA down into FL

day4prob.gif.5bfd4abcbc0ede19899584cefdc471a9.gif

 

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the medium-range models are exhibiting fairly
considerable differences from one another with eastward progression of an eastern U.S. cold front Day 4/Sunday.  The differences in handling of synoptic features become even more pronounced beyond, as the next Pacific trough enters/crosses the U.S. in the Day 5-8 time frame.

   Despite the Day 4 variability in the models, it is apparent that an ongoing line/band of storms will progress steadily eastward across the Appalachians early in the day, and then continue east across the Atlantic Coast states.  While warm-sector instability remains a substantial uncertainty -- in part due to variability in the speed of the frontal advance toward the coast -- the kinematic environment will support organized convection.  As such, will introduce a 15% area extending from parts of Virginia south to Florida, with damaging wind likely to be the predominant severe risk until frontal convection moves offshore.

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On 4/4/2018 at 10:34 AM, Cold Rain said:

Too much stratification.  General T-storms, Slight Risk, Moderate Risk, and High Risk is a sufficient structure.  You don't need marginal risk, elevated risk, enhanced risk, intense risk, required minimum risk, alternate risk, and super insane absurdly maximized risk.

Going off of this topic, I have seen several instances of the public struggling with the tornado watch/warning system, at least in areas like NC and MI that aren't in tornado alley.

In particular, I have seen overreaction to tornado watches. Back in college, I distinctly remember one event where we had a tornado watch in effect and a severe thunderstorm barreling towards us. The campus activated the tornado warning sirens and notification system during classes and most students sheltered in place even though there was no tornado warning issued by the NWS. Someone in the administration or emergency services overreacted or didn't grasp the system. I have also had friends tell me to 'watch out for tornadoes' and refuse to travel when a tornado watch is in effect, even when the watch is for a 12 county area and isn't in effect until later that day for a very marginal and unlikely tornado outbreak.

Stuff like this makes clear sense to us weather nerds, but for the average person it's a lot of information that they don't care about 95% of the time. Public education is key, but not sure on the best way to do it. Maybe NWS engagement in the classroom? Their resources are already stretched thin, but I could get behind something like that if funding were allocated.

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4 hours ago, jjwxman said:

CWASP Percentages via the 6z NAM on Sunday afternoon.Image

The NAM seems to be very bullish for Sunday's event. Taken verbatim, anything that develops ahead of the squall line would certainly be capable of producing tornadoes. :o

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Current Day 3 SPC outlook:

5ad0e1d0449a3_day3otlk_0730(2).gif.a09913d490515cd41e20818c9ec5a243.gif

SPC AC 130703

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTH
   INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms, some severe, will spread across the Southeast
   and parts of the Middle Atlantic Sunday.

   ...Discussion...

   Significant large-scale forcing is expected to spread across
   portions of the Southeast and Middle Atlantic region during the day3
   period as strong mid-level flow translates into this region. Latest
   model guidance suggest a pronounced surface front will surge into
   GA/FL Panhandle early in the period then into the lee of the
   Appalachians Sunday evening. Frontal forcing is expected to aid a
   significant squall line along the wind shift as it advances east,
   aided by mid-level height falls. Strong shear profiles will support
   organized updrafts but the primary storm mode should be linear due
   to frontal forcing. Greatest buoyancy is expected to extend as far
   north as southern GA into coastal SC and there is some concern that
   a few discrete storms could evolve ahead of the front across this
   region. Have focused 15% severe probs for areas of potentially more
   instability where isolated supercells may evolve in addition to a
   linear MCS. Farther north across the Middle Atlantic, low severe
   probs should suffice where forecast buoyancy is expected to be
   considerably weaker. Even so, a strongly sheared forced squall line
   should advance across portions of NC/VA. Damaging winds are the
   primary threat with this convection.

   ..Darrow.. 04/13/2018

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9 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

This is not looking good...... Enhanced Risk over MBY.

 

day1otlk_1200.gif?1523780251623

On the plus side, enhanced is even less than moderate and moderate is just, well, moderate.

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Could be a tornado spinning up on that bowing segment of the line just SE of Denton, I think we got a poster from there, Asheboro area about to get rocked that rotation is pretty tight ATM....

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surprise 

 

many mini low topped hooking SUPS

 

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW   TORNADOES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA   PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA INTO THIS EVENING.       ..DISCUSSION     RECENT SINGLE-RADAR AND MRMS DATA HAVE DISPLAYED AN ORGANIZATIONAL   UPTICK IN SHALLOW SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT,   A TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED WITH A CELL OVER   CRENSHAW CO, AL, SUGGESTING SOME INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL IS   BEING REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. KEVX DATA DISPLAY A WIND PROFILE   FAVORABLE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES, AND   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY ADEQUATE FOR TORNADOGENESIS   WITH THESE ISOLATED CELLS, AS WELL AS NEW DEVELOPMENT MOVING ONSHORE   FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED   FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA   PANHANDLE.    

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Parameters are certainly favorable for low-topped supercells with strong low-level mesos.  And the offshore activity is, if anything, even more robust than what’s on land.  Bit of a forecast whiff, but it happens.

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Lets see if anything develops later this afternoon...

 ...Central/eastern NC and far southeast VA...
   A shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will decay as it
   progresses towards the Northeast states. A weak surface cyclone near
   Greensboro should track east along the NC/VA border through this
   evening. A narrow wedge of robust insolation is underway near the
   surface cyclone, between the impinging cold front and widespread
   cloud/stratiform rain across eastern portions of NC/VA. Weak
   mid-level lapse rates sampled by 12Z soundings will limit updraft
   acceleration this afternoon, but the corridor of surface heating
   amid residual mid 60s surface dew points should yield MLCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg. Isolated to scattered storm development is likely by
   mid-late afternoon. J-shaped hodographs will favor strong vertical
   shear within the mid to upper portion of the thermodynamic profile
   which should support a few supercells. Isolated to widely scattered
   severe hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible, before
   weakening after sunset.

 

day1otlk_20180506_1630_prt.gif

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Figures.....

NOUS62 KMHX 041238
FTMMHX
Message Date: May 04 2018 12:43:55

The KMHX 88D will be down for maintenance until around May 13th. A team from the
Radar Operation Center will be replacing critical par

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Lots of sun here now and it is crazy humid out there.....low level lapse rates should climb quickly...also 50-55knts of shear around so if we can get some storms to form in the next 2-4 hrs it could get interesting. 

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Extremely nasty severe cell moving in towards Goldsboro....looks hooky on radar but rotation isnt that tight as of now, still has to be some pretty bad winds at the surface and hail is probably getting ping pong or better...

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Extremely nasty severe cell moving in towards Goldsboro....looks hooky on radar but rotation isnt that tight as of now, still has to be some pretty bad winds at the surface and hail is probably getting ping pong or better...

Storm now heading my way. We are under a "special weather statement". Looks like the storms are just under severe criteria.

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I can attest to that. We had a two day softball tournament for my daughter at Eastern Carolina Athletic Park in Goldsboro this past weekend. Heavy rain and lightning. Didn't see any hail. Pretty much had rain all the way to Mt. Olive on the drive home. Hit another nasty cell between Williamston and Windsor. Had rain from there to Midway on NC17. After that it was clear until we got home to Elizabeth City when we got hit by what I'm guessing was what we came through earlier in Williamston.

Extremely nasty severe cell moving in towards Goldsboro....looks hooky on radar but rotation isnt that tight as of now, still has to be some pretty bad winds at the surface and hail is probably getting ping pong or better...

 

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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