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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Front just went through here about 15-20 minutes ago, temp has dropped from 58 to 42 in that time. Mist and fog in the air, all snow gone from ground except in a few protected areas.

This is going to be a very interesting (and possibly frustrating) storm to watch from this point as there is a lot more variability in the models than I expected at this stage (the SREFs are ridiculous). I think the safe bet for ROC is about 11-12". BUF maybe 6-7". Good luck to everyone, enjoy the storm...whatever it brings.

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10 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Anyone have thoughts/data on the faster-than-expected frontal passage and LP placement & strength vs. what models forecasted at this point? Current surface map shows front on BUF doorstep and 1001mb LP over northern AL.

Faster =weaker and east. You don’t want all that cold air crashing into a LP. I’m watching meso stuff now. 

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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Well, if it rolls out the way HRRR is saying, Roc gets a big one, Niagara Falls gets screwed, Buf inbetween And SE Syracuse mix. It’s trend is good. Roc region has 40 miles of leeway. Which looks ok now. hrrr_ref_frzn_us_18.png

994mb LP seems to be deeper than most forecasted, correct?

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Why not...

BUF - 3" (glorified fropa)

Roch - 6" (sorry, I see the precip shield trucking through)

Syr - 8" (congrats!)

I'm just not seeing the kind of wrapped up storm or tight circulation that sends precip back over the area and leads to big lake enhanced totals.  That's usually our money for higher end accumulations, at least in WNY.  Hope I'm wrong, but if anyone tops a foot I'll be surprised...

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Just now, Buffalo Bumble said:

Why not...

BUF - 3" (glorified fropa)

Roch - 6" (sorry, I see the precip shield trucking through)

Syr - 8" (congrats!)

I'm just not seeing the kind of wrapped up storm or tight circulation that sends precip back over the area and leads to big lake enhanced totals.  That's usually our money for higher end accumulations, at least in WNY.  Hope I'm wrong, but if anyone tops a foot I'll be surprised...

Yeah very little lake enhancement now compared to a few days ago. No vertical tilt with great moisture, just a overrunning event. 

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I don't know where all these negative posts are coming from because this thing hasn't even begun to gets its act together, lol.  I realize ppl who were getting jacked aren't anymore, but a 6-10" snowfall is not a bad event especially after all our snowcover got wiped out in 1.5 days, so I guess I'll take whatever I can get before our real thaw comes, which should last a couple weeks as opposed to 2 days, but that's just me.

I do know one thing, this is not a frontal passage like some are alluding to, but I guess you can call it whatever you want.

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3 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Temps along the lake in NE Monroe cty. just dropped from 58 to 38 last 45 mins...

I was actually running errands on lunch and saw this happen real time.  Left at 1215 and it was 62.  Then at 1pm it was 42.  Pretty sharp drop for sure.  There was a very clear delineation in the clouds too.  Pretty cool to watch it plow past.  

EAFFA35A-972D-489D-AF7E-206BD52441F5.thumb.jpeg.19e3a0e843017f326abc1078620c7eb2.jpeg

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I'll tell you what, if this is a frontal passage then I'll take a frontal passage twice a week please for the rest of the season, lol!

5a58fc5f8f3dc_ecmwf_tsnow_KU_syracuse_11(1).thumb.png.7b55b3c5e4634d14a13f8419a8445556.png

Obviously I wouldn't take this map verbatim cause these take into account ratios right from the get and some of this will infact be sleet but how much is the question.

my guess's

KBUF = 8" no enhancement

KROC= 13" synoptic - 3-5" LE on the back end for a total of 17"

KSYR= 15" no enhancement

KWRT= 12" no enhancement

KITH= 6+ with a 1/4" of ice and poerhaps some LE from Ontario and Cayuga

KBGM=10" cause of elevation

If the change over happens much quicker than advertised because of the lagging mid level CF then these totals will rise but we'll see.

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