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Upstate/Eastern New York


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38 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

RAP still shows SYR with another .9”. KROC with another .5”. So we good. 

9D4DD0B6-2B97-4F60-8739-5B5D4050D272.png

That's 3-6" for SYR, which puts us at 6-9" total, about what i suspected. Always divide NWP liquid qpf by 2 or 3 when it comes to converting to snowfall, unless you can justify absurdly high ratio conditions.  Whenever I deviate from this rule I get disappointed.

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Another forecast checklist rule that I have which worked well for this storm is the Joe Bastadi / Innacuweather hype factor. 

Rule:  The potential for an interior (upstate) synoptic 6+" snowfall is inversely proportional to their hype, as only storms that significantly impact densely populated (subscriber) regions (I-95 corridor) get hyperventilation. 

In this case, no hype and...voila!

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Re conversation about storm track, I think there were two centers and I was commenting on the first one, another poster thought I meant the second one which is further south. Otherwise if you read my post I don't think there are different snowfall amounts forecast from what others here were discussing. Just looking at the current map, the leading center is in southern NH by now, and the trailing one is north of BAL and east of CXY. 

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Looking ahead...next week's storm (KBOX BW threat) was just blown away by the EC...aligning w/ GEM and GFS.  So dead zone for a while...nothing much for next 7-10  days. Maybe we can wring out some LES and a Clipper while everyone else stares at brown terrain. After that, who knows...only the Shadow knows. ;)

(IMO we Torch Feb and March with a cool early April that offers as much snow threat as Feb and March combined...IOW enjoy the next 2 weeks of winter cuz its pretty much game over after the Groundhog sniffs his azzhole).

 

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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wny in battle between dry air to NW and storm pushing in from the south.

WUNIDS_map?station=BUF&brand=wui&num=10&

This was always represented by the models. Which is why poor Niagara County always lost out on the big stuff. You can see the the darker greens moving almost due north. Everyone NE of Buff gets a second load. And the south shore gets love from Ontario now. Take what you got and double it. I think. 

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This storm is coming together nicely for the I-90 corridor with anywhere between Buffalo and Elmira longitude to the northeast cashing in on 8-15" with iso to 18" as you work up to Syracuse. Someone always jacks. Deformation axis will really get rolling near Finger Lakes to SYR, so thinking that's where any jack will occur from pure synoptic's. Good to see you guys get a synoptic event for once. Enjoy!

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A few more hours of snow left just north of SYR.  About 3-4" on ground, rice snow.  One interesting thing is that the snow hole filled in. I am in what's left of it now and still snowing steady, albeit mediocre accumulation continues with poor dendrites. Definately not worth staying up for, at least here. There are only so many March 2017 snowstorms to go around and this ain't one of them, at least here. One of these days i'll have to fire up BUFKIT again to get a better handle on mid levels and snow growth rather than divide NWP qpf by 2 or 3, although that usually works good enough for synoptic systems here..

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

A few more hours of snow left just north of SYR.  About 3-4" on ground, rice snow.  One interesting thing is that the snow hole filled in. I am in what's left of it now and still snowing steady, albeit mediocre accumulation continues with poor dendrites. Definately not worth staying up for, at least here. There are only so many March 2017 snowstorms to go around and this ain't one of them, at least here. One of theze days i'll have to fire up BUFKIT again to get a better handle on mid levels and snow growth again.

We'll still end up with around a foot.  The best mid level forcing is about to begin, and it will snow hard through 9am or so. 

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1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

We'll still end up with around a foot.  The best mid level forcing is about to begin, and it will snow hard through 9am or so. 

Maybe. There's something wrong with this storm vs various NWP and I don't know what it is. Actually, I think it's the clown map phenomena.

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Maybe. There's something wrong with this storm vs various NWP and I don't know what it is. Actually, I think it's the clown map phenomena.

The mix of IP with windy conditions can reap havoc on flake size at the IP/snow interface, so some of the clown maps of 21" were more than a stretch.

That said, a 6 hour period of 1.5"/hr. will put us above the "bust" threshold.

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8 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

The mix of IP with windy conditions can reap havoc on flake size at the IP/snow interface, so some of the clown maps of 21" were more than a stretch.

That said, a 6 hour period of 1.5"/hr. will put us above the "bust" threshold.

If we get that...agreed. Not a horrid storm I suppose, just not what I expected. I figured we'd lose 2" due to IP.  I'd have to investigate further to understand how to identify sh!t snow production vs available moisture and other factors. I was on it years ago with lake effect but we get so few synoptic storms that are worth a crap that I lost some interest. And most decent LES goes to the Tug so who really cares. Too easy to rip and read parameterized graphical output. Comes with old age and being an electrical engineer with other computer modeling interests at work.

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