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Typhoon Tip

Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

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41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

lol...stop.  If my post came across unclear or otherwise, I apologize.   I think you're a great MET and really know your stuff....not that you care what I think, but that's the truth.  

He’s really a big weenie disguised in a red-tagged coat. So go easy on him and dont blow his house down

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NAM looks pretty tasty at 84h...yeah clown range for the NAM and all, but it's got the baroclinic zone pretty close to the coast so that would probably pop pretty nicely when the trough hits.

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GFS is really close this run.

 

Gets SE MA with the main precip shield...with IVT snows further west.

 

 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'd like to see less of a compact main precip shield and separation with the inv trough. Still doesn't really get it together yet.

considering the model we looking at, kinda like where we are atm. Would like to see euro improve obv.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That IVT is real with this one. It’s very reminiscent of that storm last week where the Hudson Valleyup thru SVT got 8-12”. That feature is real with this 

OK

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

considering the model we looking at, kinda like where we are atm. Would like to see euro improve obv.

Close to something better though. It would not take much.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s on every model . It’s legit 

We've seen them disappear though before as we get closer...sometimes the baroclinic zone just ends up further west than guidance initially tries to portray and you'll get a more normal looking coastal system.

 

It's quite possible the same thing happens this time.

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Good spot to be in at day 5. Much rather this too far east, than west. Cutter risk is real, but def mitigated by the transience of the PNA ridge....But on the negative side, the transient nature of the PNA ridge will contribute to the progressive/fast movement of this system, and a quick exit stage right.

I think we're in good shape for something wintry, and more than a graze, but expectations still capped below a significant event...

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t-minus 36 hours until physical sampling begins...   everything else the models are doing until that time atones to conjecture ...relative to which conjecture is smartest of course. 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Good spot to be in at day 5. Much rather this too far east, than west. Cutter risk is real, but def mitigated by the transience of the PNA ridge....But on the negative side, the transient nature of the PNA ridge will contribute to the progressive/fast movement of this system, and a quick exit stage right.

I think we're in good shape for something wintry, and more than a graze, but expectations still capped below a significant event...

Yea, exactly right.

Small window for a significant snow event.

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The intensity of the cold plume the Euro dumps into the Canadian prairies/James Bay region at the end of the run from last night was impressive.  Talking core temps approaching -40 C at 850 mb in that plume...  -EPO as that ridge node tumbles toward the Alaskan sector is really chart topping.  The means/freebie products really say it all. And in classic -EPO surge, the initial drill down at mid latitudes is centered over the Rockies.  

'Course, that's the Euro -

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We've seen them disappear though before as we get closer...sometimes the baroclinic zone just ends up further west than guidance initially tries to portray and you'll get a more normal looking coastal system.

 

It's quite possible the same thing happens this time.

What about all the ones that haven’t? Like last weeks 

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