Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Typhoon Tip

Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

There have been plenty of systems that have looked great at H5 but didn't translate to the surface, This could be on of them but its way to early to disregard, Its not going to take to much for this to change to a better outcome so sit tight.

Yes, this is my feeling too..long way to go with this. What modeling shows today is going to change...maybe it doesn’t change for the better, or like you said it wouldn’t take a whole lot to make it something more. 

 

Hey at least we we have something to track...that’s the good part of this. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'd feel better at your latitude than here. :D

lol, That's not always the case, I try to keep things in perspective, So far this year, I can't complain and won't, Things have worked out quite well so far here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, this is my feeling too..long way to go with this. What modeling shows today is going to change...maybe it doesn’t change for the better, or like you said it wouldn’t take a whole lot to make it something more. 

 

Hey at least we we have something to track...that’s the good part of this. 

x 100, That's what i like the most, Is doing analysis on each event to see how or why we came to the outcome, Its a learning experience.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And tracking is half the fun. It’s why the warm season sucks besides tropical systems. Tracking rising dews in the valley doesn’t quite make the cut.

More then half here, Its almost a let down once the event is underway, I'm already looking for the next one, Its like an addict looking for his next fix, And summer, I'm out for the most part, Unless there is a siggy chance at severe, And that's not often being on the coastal plain, Seabreeze.......ftl.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, That's not always the case, I try to keep things in perspective, So far this year, I can't complain and won't, Things have worked out quite well so far here.

Yup.  I'm done complaining about weather in my life.  I can't control it.  All I can do is enjoy what it throws at me.  I'm sitting at ~65% of seasonal total snowfall about 40 days into MET Winter, why would I complain? :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yup.  I'm done complaining about weather in my life.  I can't control it.  All I can do is enjoy what it throws at me.  I'm sitting at ~65% of seasonal total snowfall about 40 days into MET Winter, why would I complain? :lol:

Because the squeeky wheel gets the grease?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You want the left hook into EMA, as Will stated most don't want.  My Delmar upbringings know where you'd want this to track haha.  I'm pretty much in the same boat... in and up as one poster likes to say.

I'd rather the left hook into MBY than current solutions....I'll take 6-10", followed by some sleet and a slot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yup.  I'm done complaining about weather in my life.  I can't control it.  All I can do is enjoy what it throws at me.  I'm sitting at ~65% of seasonal total snowfall about 40 days into MET Winter, why would I complain? :lol:

None of us can control it, You learn to roll with it as you get older.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There have been plenty of systems that have looked great at H5 but didn't translate to the surface, This could be on of them but its way to early to disregard, Its not going to take to much for this to change to a better outcome so sit tight.

Remember the trend with N stream SWs relative to modeling this season....hasn't been denied yet.

Doesn't always mean a huge storm, but you look good...as usual.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Remember the trend with N stream SWs relative to modeling this season....hasn't been denied yet.

Doesn't always mean a huge storm, but you look good...as usual.

Certainly has played out that way so far, Similar to many La Nina seasons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Steve, what do you think about next week?

Personally I like the teleconnections, like the vorticity, like the 50/50, like the blocking, ULL placement is a tad North but doable. A 6 to 12 event is my target. Get the ULL a tad south and we could be onto something. Reminds me of March 17

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Remember the trend with N stream SWs relative to modeling this season....hasn't been denied yet.

Doesn't always mean a huge storm, but you look good...as usual.

Yeah, I reserve judgement till 0hr but this just looks like a different setup as we are relying what looks like the ULL itself to spawn a SLP off the coast which limits the potential of a storm to develop.  Having a robust s/w round the base of an established ULL would be a different animal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, I reserve judgement till 0hr but this just looks like a different setup as we are relying what looks like the ULL itself to spawn a SLP off the coast which limits the potential of a storm to develop.  Having a robust s/w round the base of an established ULL would be a different animal.

That is exactly what I mean...plenty of time for something more to emerge off the Pacific...but again, it doesn't have to happen.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, I reserve judgement till 0hr but this just looks like a different setup as we are relying what looks like the ULL itself to spawn a SLP off the coast which limits the potential of a storm to develop.  Having a robust s/w round the base of an established ULL would be a different animal.

I'm living at 500mb right now. :wub:  Visualizing the fluidity of the flow/dynamics so play along with me.

What I am seeing right now is the best forcing is induced after it rounds the the base of the trough.  This seems to be caused by the strung out nature of the s/w.  This in turn would lead to later development/deepening of any surface reflection.  Best dynamics occur further north as a result.  If we can either deepen the trough to get this reflection to occur further south and/or get a more compact s/w to round the ULL, we may be able to correct the issues I see.  

All this being said, I'm not selling on a light/moderate event (2-4/4-8) for SNE with more for C/NNE as modeled right now.  My thoughts would be for something more substantial for SNE as a whole.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather the left hook into MBY than current solutions....I'll take 6-10", followed by some sleet and a slot.

That would be a good track, for back here.

 

25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

?

Just meant that the complainers and the ‘meh’ers get the goods. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well there certainly isn't any coherent ensemble signal right now. And our cards aren't really on the table for another 60-72 hours. 

Fuzzy clustering seems to suggest if we can get the trof axis a little east though it favors a stronger low off the tip of Cape Cod, MA, USA.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least you got one of your five posts back.

Yeah at least, lol.

Here is why I posted, here is the 00z NAM wind profile from 800mb to the surface and the temp profile for the same section of the atmosphere over Chatham, MA.  Wind profiler suggests unidirectional flow from 900mb to the surface, this is also supported by the instability parameters with delta ts reaching 18-20C as the 900-925mb temps are between -12 to -14C and ocean temps over Cape Cod Bay are between 6-8C.  With unidirectional northerly surface flow around 10-15 knots this supports a continued fetch of cold air over warm waters sufficient enough to continue to produce a single banded of OES event from the Canal eastward.  While location of the band is in question about 60 hours from the event, the models agree on northerly winds and temps are cold enough for an all snow event from the Canal to Provincetown.  

 

00z NAM wind profile chatham.png

00z NAM temp profile chatham.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×