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Typhoon Tip

Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

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You know ... we used have this old adage up there in my UML days.  First it gets warm, then it gets cold ... BOOM.

I think if memory serves there was even some real statistical significance to it too.  I think back to a handful of events in my time, and certainly that was true.  In Dec 5-7 2003, we had a southerly gale and 70 F DPs just before a ribbon echo squall put the k-bosh on it... two days later, windex squalls swept over the region associated with a polar/arctic fropa, then two days later... we had 16" of snow where I lived at the time in Winchester Mass. I remember that storm as being a lot of hand wringing as to where the cut off for mix/rain would be over SE zones. After all, at that time of year?  But given to idiosyncrasy with the positioning of the nascent high over central Ontario ... not being eastern Ontario, gave the ageostrophic wind a bit of a bicep ... and as such, the CF compressed way unusually far S to Plymouth...only to collapse SE through the storm.  It was amazing seeing Logan go from 34 F parachutes to 19 F powder over the course of the afternoon, as the winds backed from NE to NNE then N.

It's not true at all times... and certainly wouldn't work in every transition.  In 2012... we kept transitioning from obnoxiously warm and dry, to cool and dry, only too blithely go back to obnoxiously warm and dry. But, given a fair and just sort of like transitory pattern, often these warm ups get displaced perhaps "prematurely" on a hemispheric scope, and the mass-field wiggle back jolts a storm production.  Something like that.   We found in the data there was a tendency for 'some' kind of positive departure in the week prior to significant events.

It would be fitting to actually have a system next week in some ways. I could almost see the old man in the rocking chair spinning tales of yore, ... saying something like, " ...A big one she's a comin'.... first she got warm, then she got cold. Boom," ...after having spend the previous hour listening in patients to all the reasons why nothing is going to happen at all.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm selling on the big storm idea....still could be some snow, but the emergence of the PAC jet mid season is too much to overcome imo.

I agree. Maybe some have fun in SE MA with OES though. 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I got 12"...with 26" 5mi east of me, and 36" 10mi east lol

Actually was a 3 day event with a pre then dumpage 5th night and 6th. I have some great memories of that  night with the kids riding tobaggans down our street hill. 

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Actually after December 5-7 2003 Noreaster, there was another significant winter storm the following weekend with snow transitioning to mixed precip.

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24 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

Actually after December 5-7 2003 Noreaster, there was another significant winter storm the following weekend with snow transitioning to mixed precip.

Yea the 14th I picked up 6 and thought a great Dec was underway then flipped to rain and it was over 

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12 minutes ago, 512high said:

so that's it? we throw the towel in on the next possible event? maybe models will come back with more promising ,next 48? son of a **tch

Too early to throw in the towel

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Albany is 1hr east of me and they have done better for sure,there is no way we have reached 8” for the season 1 hr. West of Albany ,AKA,, Albany Area snow hole!...Albany north(Adirondacks ) has done ok like you say,snowgeek ...maybe you could send some my way seeing you are right next door to Albany?

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56 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

Actually after December 5-7 2003 Noreaster, there was another significant winter storm the following weekend with snow transitioning to mixed precip.

Got 24" in the first event, followed by a 40s deluge, then 13" on 12/15, followed by TWO torch-deluges.  After 37" in the two snowstorms, only 35.7" the rest of the winter.  Hope we do better in the final 3/4 of this one.

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53 minutes ago, 512high said:

so that's it? we throw the towel in on the next possible event? maybe models will come back with more promising ,next 48? son of a **tch

It’s an advisory event at least. 

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Retorch looks pretty brief. Just that 2 day period maybe later next weekend. 

Don't sleep on middle next week yet either. May not end up as a KU but sometimes even the front burst can surprise.

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Difficult to complain about that H5 look on the 0z EPS/12z GEFS around day 4/5. Good position for Eastern NE at this range.

12z GEFS also took a step towards 0z EPS. Improved look, in general.

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