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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm happy with it....I'd love to whiff on the extended thaw...as long as you understand why you were off, its fine.

I fully admit...I may be wrong on the long respite period, but I did make it clear that storms are still possible because its mid winter.

I was teasing on your borderline obsession to be perfect. So far so good though.

If we can get this to produce big, my historic winter ‘call’ looking good...of course I just piggybacked your research/work and simply double downed. Ez game. 

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wasn't rooting for it...I was expecting it, but it looks like the general pattern thereafter may not be as bad as I had feared. 

What I want and what I forecast are two different things...unless you're Kevin :lol:

 

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think Chris was referring to Kev

Yep. Maybe I mistakenly thought he was referring to Kevin's winter ratter call.

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Folks, there is a good ocean effect snow event possible for the Outer Cape east of Hyannis Saturday evening through Sunday evening, and then for the whole eastern shoreline of Massachusetts from Cape Ann to Cape Cod from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for accumulating ocean effect snow event.  The first event on northerly winds looks more potent as 850mb to surface water temperatures will be around 20C and then warm up as we head towards Tuesday.  I think Bob should start a thread for the Ocean Effect snow events as they will impact a lot more people this go around.  Also the clipper looks to be weak and unsatisfactory and then the nor'easter comes around as a second arctic shortwave rounds the base of the trough and exacts cyclogenesis northeast of HSE.  This nor'easter has a huge ensemble signal for Wednesday into Thursday with the GFS MEX numbers 1 sun 1 mon 1 tue 2 for wed and 6 thu for Chatham, MA

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I don't think the lack of a signal is a bad thing on the GEFS ensemble mean for a definitive area of low pressure, it means they have it just vary wildly in timing and placement of the surface low.  I think the models will have a better time figuring this out once the NAM is in better range, that won't happen for another 72 hours in my opinion.  GFS likes Thursday as it prints out a 6 for Chatham in terms of snowfall amounts.  Plus we have a legit two ocean effect snow events this week to iron out before any clipper or coastal storm gets going.  The mesoscale models like a large single band of snow impacting areas of cape cod east of Hyannis on Sunday

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This is clearly a bulldchit waste of computational power run. I wonder what the Carbon footprint/contribution to AGW NCEP commits when they fire up the peta flops for a waste of time and energy like that. This run's up and dropping some half the wave kinematics like that is like running the damn model based on a guess. 

Here's what's going to happen… The euros going to follow. Everyone's  going to drop it and forget about it then it'll come back Sunday night

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is clearly a bulldchit waste of computational power run. I wonder what the Carbon footprint/contribution to AGW NCEP commits when fires up the peta flops for the waste of time and energy.  This run's up and dropping some half the wave kinematics like that is like running the damn model based on a guess. 

Here's what's going to happen… The euros going to follow. Everyone's  going to drop it and forget about it then it'll come back Sunday night

The last storm started looking ugly in the D4-5 time range before strongly coming back inside 84 hours...when the nonhydros led the way.

This one definitely has that flavor of complex wave interaction where that lead vortmax screws with the model guidance along with the kicker wave behind it from the arctic.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The last storm started looking ugly in the D4-5 time range before strongly coming back inside 84 hours...when the nonhydros led the way.

This one definitely has that flavor of complex wave interaction where that lead vortmax screws with the model guidance along with the kicker wave behind it from the arctic.

Tho everything you mention is clad ...  I really think this run is missing bulk sectors of data or something perhaps if even assimulated weirdly ....that's just too much trough morphology in a single run to be based on actual input it doesn't make any sense. 

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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe its me, but UK doesn't look impressive....unless its just relative to the other crap.

Just looks like a northern branch arctic vort/clipper with some enhancement and weak development once it emerges off the coast off New England maybe? 1004mb is meh

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19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just looks like a northern branch arctic vort/clipper with some enhancement and weak development once it emerges off the coast off New England maybe? 1004mb is meh

Yea, I'd pass on that...if its going to snow on a work day, don't bother if its not enough to keep me home.

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