Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s looking like it could be more Wednesday Thursday now. The GFS with that crap set up Tuesday hopefully won’t happen. There was no EPS support for a late week storm . It was centered on Tuesday/ Wed. Gfs nonsense is tossed . If Euro delays it then we can entertain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that is connected to all of the mass field shifts...that is one way to eradicate a steep geopotential medium in short order- You can really 'detect' that relaxation in the end days of last night Euro run ... has little/nothing to do with the storm of present discussion, but just in general. The charts there show a polar main jet has been displaced south, opening up the entire quatra-hemispheric scale region of N/A and adjacent oceanic basins, north of ! the 40th parallel. That region is with a nebular flow not having very large negative or positive geopotential anomalies outside of perhaps local spatial scaled noise. Aside from looking rather spring like, that's manageable cold loads(ing) but is also better for maximizing a short wave length kinematics... But that's wondering on the point. the point is, the flow losing that ultra compression appeal with like 11 isotachs curving around a giant planetary maelstrom, that keeps individual smaller features scooting right along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: There was no EPS support for a late week storm . It was centered on Tuesday/ Wed. Gfs nonsense is tossed . If Euro delays it then we can entertain The Op 00z Euro was Thursday as well. This is the 6am Thursday SLP position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You can really 'detect' that relaxation in the end days of last night Euro run ... has little/nothing to do with the storm of present discussion, but just in general. The charts there show a polar main jet has been displaced south, opening up the entire quatra-hemispheric scale region of N/A and adjacent oceanic basins, north of ! the 40th parallel. That region is with a nebular flow not having very large negative or positive geopotential anomalies outside of perhaps local spatial scaled noise. Aside from looking rather spring like, that's manageable cold loads(ing) but is also better for maximizing a short wave length kinematics... But that's wondering on the point. the point is, the flow losing that ultra compression appeal with like 11 isotachs curving around a giant planetary maelstrom. I blogged Wednesday night regarding steep falls in the PNA, AO and AO, and a rise in the EPO all centred on January 17-18....so solutions depcting a storm on the 15th-16th were dubious and likely to be accompanied by marginal mechanics in reality. Its awesome to see models adjust to mass field shifts like that. Still could fall apart, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Since this is the model thread, weeklies anyone? Wx.graphics.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Wx.graphics.com page no longer exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There was no EPS support for a late week storm . It was centered on Tuesday/ Wed. Gfs nonsense is tossed . If Euro delays it then we can entertain Split the difference. Look at WPC maps. Storm in MV Tues morning, secondary developing on Wed morning, storm just east of DE Maine Thursday morn. Meat of storm is Wed/Wed night for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I blogged Wednesday night regarding steep falls in the PNA, AO and AO, and a rise in the EPO all centred on January 17-18....so solutions depcting a storm on the 15th-16th were dubious and likely to be accompanied by marginal mechanics in reality. Its awesome to see models adjust to mass field shifts like that. Still could fall apart, too. Been on my radar for the 17th for a week now. Just has that look, teleconnection feel. Nothing set in stone but it's oh so familiar. You asked me yesterday what I liked, all of the above is what I responded. There's a AAM fall to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Split the difference. Look at WPC maps. Storm in MV Tues morning, secondary developing on Wed morning, storm just east of DE Maine Thursday morn. Meat of storm is Wed/Wed night for NE. and that is what is appealing to me. the maps would indicate overrunning starting Tuesday night and snow getting heavy Wednesday afternoon and evening an probably not ending until Thurs morn. Don't understand such a long evolution in this progressive pattern but I'm sure some met or weenieologist does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: page no longer exists. You forgot the dot after wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, mahk_webstah said: and that is what is appealing to me. the maps would indicate overrunning starting Tuesday night and snow getting heavy Wednesday afternoon and evening an probably not ending until Thurs morn. Don't understand such a long evolution in this progressive pattern but I'm sure some met or weenieologist does. NAO is tanking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Split the difference. Look at WPC maps. Storm in MV Tues morning, secondary developing on Wed morning, storm just east of DE Maine Thursday morn. Meat of storm is Wed/Wed night for NE. The later solutions are going to put the coastal regions at risk for rain/mix. It’s a dangerous line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: You forgot the dot after wx Nope. Page no longer exists. http://wx.graphics.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The weeklies must suck nobody wants to post them........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nope. Page no longer exists. http://wx.graphics.com/ http://wx.graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Been on my radar for the 17th for a week now. Just has that look, teleconnection feel. Nothing set in stone but it's oh so familiar. You asked me yesterday what I liked, all of the above is what I responded. There's a AAM fall to boot Good eye on you and Will....this one snuck up on me, but once I viewed the euro teleconnection product on wxbell, it became apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The later solutions are going to put the coastal regions at risk for rain/mix. It’s a dangerous line Later means opposite of what you say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The later solutions are going to put the coastal regions at risk for rain/mix. It’s a dangerous line Yup. I'll gladly take the risk, though...sst is 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Later means opposite of what you say No. Which is why you saw the Euro give them a driving rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Later means opposite of what you say It depends if it tucks...it could.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: No. Which is why you saw the Euro give them a driving rainstorm Later would mean a closed ULL overhead. I doubt with the low positions just offshore it's rain, a blue bomb, surface temps of 33 34 mean nada when it's below 32 all the way up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yup. I'll gladly take the risk, though...sst is 40. Sh it Ssts near ACK are 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Sh it Ssts near ACK are 28 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I blogged Wednesday night regarding steep falls in the PNA, AO and AO, and a rise in the EPO all centred on January 17-18....so solutions depcting a storm on the 15th-16th were dubious and likely to be accompanied by marginal mechanics in reality. Its awesome to see models adjust to mass field shifts like that. Still could fall apart, too. yeah and who knows if it's the paradigm for the second half, or if it's just a relaxation before more gradient returns.. as i was discussing yesterday, there are are warming tropopausal layers up north - experimentally... could those presage a EPO burst. ... I'm thinking persistence should have a say in matters, and that's been the m.o. over recent seasons. Periodicity of EPO guide determining matters.. not sure this look of the deep range extended is real or if we merely bide time before loading the Can shield to ruin early hopes of spring. Althought, Nina's do have some correlation to early exhausted cold and onsets of spring too ... I dunno. Just gets the feeling it's like wondering through the woods in Wizard Of Oz and it's eerily too quiet... like the flyin' monkeys are out there. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Later would mean a closed ULL overhead. I doubt with the low positions just offshore it's rain, a blue bomb, surface temps of 33 34 mean nada when it's below 32 all the way up Yea, dry slot would be the larger issue....just depends. I thought the 00z would be snowier if verified, but moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah and who knows if it's the paradigm for the second half, or if it's just a relaxation before more gradient returns.. as i was discussing yesterday, there are are warming tropopausal layers up north - experimentally... could those presage a EPO burst. ... I'm thinking persistence should have a say in matters, and that's been the m.o. over recent seasons. Periodicity of EPO guide determining matters.. not sure this look of the deep range extended is real or if we merely bide time before loading the Can shield to ruin early hopes of spring. Althought, Nina's do have some correlation to early exhausted cold and onsets of spring too ... I dunno. Just gets the feeling it's like wondering through the woods in Wizard Of Oz and it's eerily too quiet... like the flyin' monkeys are out there. haha I would be absolutely stunned if that EPO blocking did not redevelope later this season...very well may have NAO, too...watch strat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, dry slot would be the larger issue....just depends. I thought the 00z would be snowier if verified, but moot. Moot but blue balls bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 TT added the german model. that thing is god awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: TT added the german model. that thing is god awful why is that model bad? what are the sources and verification scores? also folks, just fwiw - the ICON employes non-hydrostatic physics, which means it has different vertical velocity momentum/convective parameterization and handling throughout it's propagation/sequencing. you should know that before judging? Although, running such a tool out to 120 hours is pretty audacious, considering the time dependency on permutations and welp ...chaos for lack of better word. anyway, point being, ...knowing when to use the models is probably equal in importance to what they are indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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