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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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has there ever been a significant event from an 'ANA' anything ... ? 

I seriously don't recall any - which isn't a claim or statement that they can't happen.  I have not in my time seen anything of that description result in more than wiper blades for 20 minutes. 

I sometimes wonder if they're like a vestige of something failed by the models ... like incomplete cyclonic processing ... it started but just smeared itself because something interfered ... oh yeah, reality..

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

has there ever been a significant event from an 'ANA' anything ... ? 

I seriously don't recall any - which isn't a claim or statement that they can't happen.  I have not in my time seen anything of that description result in more than wiper blades for 20 minutes. 

I sometimes wonder if they're like a vestige of something failed by the models ... like incomplete cyclonic processing ... it started but just smeared itself because something interfered ... oh yeah, reality..

You forget 2/6/16

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

has there ever been a significant event from an 'ANA' anything ... ? 

I seriously don't recall any - which isn't a claim or statement that they can't happen.  I have not in my time seen anything of that description result in more than wiper blades for 20 minutes. 

I sometimes wonder if they're like a vestige of something failed by the models ... like incomplete cyclonic processing ... it started but just smeared itself because something interfered ... oh yeah, reality..

What is anafront really...is it basically a wave forming along the front to our south and kicking up precip post-front?  I think March 2005 had a helluva event around here.   Temps went from mid 40s to low 20s in under two hours.  4" of snow with 50 mph gusts.  People left work around noon, and had 8 hour trips to go 20 miles.   Really was a Great Plains-style blizzard.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

has there ever been a significant event from an 'ANA' anything ... ? 

I seriously don't recall any - which isn't a claim or statement that they can't happen.  I have not in my time seen anything of that description result in more than wiper blades for 20 minutes. 

I sometimes wonder if they're like an vestige of incomplete cyclonic processing ... like it started but just smeared itself..

There's often a blurry line on where a system goes from anafront to legit storm....we've had anafrontal waves do pretty well...like Nov 29, 1995. Again, maybe you have to accept that there is a gray area on what qualifies as anafrontal wave. I think as long as the mid-level circulations remain pretty flat, it's good enough for me.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1129.php

 

Jan 2013:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0116.php

 

 

March 8, 2005 is the all-timer around here, but you can argue that it was no longer really an anafrontal wave by the time it reached us...it had started to go nuts and you can see 850 closed off (albeit elongated) and H7 getting there by the end of the loop:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0308.php

 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

You need to chill on Kev and maybe go back to adding something to the forum other than snark

Exactly.  Snark is my department. I own snark.
:pimp:

43 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Whats creepy is bs snowfall calls by you year after year after year and nothing's done about it. And anyone coming after you is creepy, what a little girl you are.

What exactly should be "done" about Kevin's forecasts?  We have a good mix of Mets and hobbiests, who combined, give some pretty awesome insight into forecasting, particularity during the winter season.  Most of us are guilty of taking snap shots of a model run days out and running with it...Many more are able to analyze that snapshot and beyond,  and take all of the data to a level of forecasting beyond what many of us can do.  Some win, and some lose depending on the storm, but taking a particular hobbiest to task because the forecasts don't work out for you, or for him/her for that matter is kind of silly.  I will throw the snark on Kevin, or others, and rib them for a bust, but it's just that, ribbing. 

There is a difference between ribbing and being angry.  I suppose if snow is your livelihood like it seemed to be for one northern Maine (or N.H) poster a few years ago then maybe you have more invested in this than the rest of us, and you should probably rely on a forum that's less social than this one.  If not, then remember that it's just snow.  If I could have it snow every day in winter I would, but it doesn't, and I get kind of bummed, ...I throw some crap comments out there and then move on.  

And for the record, there are a few guys on here (Kevin included) whom I text away from the forum to get insight on their thoughts locally.  The forum can get clogged up with nonsense, or tangents, including my own...which is fine, and definitely not worth banning anyone over, but sometimes I like to take it off line.  Many times Kevin has been pretty reliable for my area as far snow predictions. He busts, and wish-casts  just like everyone, but more than not he has been a pretty good source for me, especially as a non - met. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Exactly.  Snark is my department. I own snark.
:pimp:

What exactly should be "done" about Kevin's forecasts?  We have a good mix of Mets and hobbiests, who combined, give some pretty awesome insight into forecasting, particularity during the winter season.  Most of us are guilty of taking snap shots of a model run days out and running with it...Many more are able to analyze that snapshot and beyond,  and take all of the data to a level of forecasting beyond what many of us can do.  Some win, and some lose depending on the storm, but taking a particular hobbiest to task because the forecasts don't work out for you, or for him/her for that matter is kind of silly.  I will throw the snark on Kevin, or others, and rib them for a bust, but it's just that, ribbing. 

There is a difference between ribbing and being angry.  I suppose if snow is your livelihood like it seemed to be for one northern Maine (or N.H) poster a few years ago then maybe you have more invested in this than the rest of us, and you should probably rely on a forum that's less social than this one.  If not, then remember that it's just snow.  If I could have it snow every day in winter I would, but it doesn't, and I get kind of bummed, ...I throw some crap comments out there and then move on.  

And for the record, there are a few guys on here (Kevin included) whom I text away from the forum to get insight on their thoughts locally.  The forum can get clogged up with nonsense, or tangents, including my own...which is fine, and definitely not worth banning anyone over, but sometimes I like to take it off line.  Many times Kevin has been pretty reliable for my area as far snow predictions. He busts, and wish-casts  just like everyone, but more than not he has been a pretty good source for me, especially as a non - met. 

 

 Congrats on your longest post ever!

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10 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Exactly.  Snark is my department. I own snark.
:pimp:

What exactly should be "done" about Kevin's forecasts?  We have a good mix of Mets and hobbiests, who combined, give some pretty awesome insight into forecasting, particularity during the winter season.  Most of us are guilty of taking snap shots of a model run days out and running with it...Many more are able to analyze that snapshot and beyond,  and take all of the data to a level of forecasting beyond what many of us can do.  Some win, and some lose depending on the storm, but taking a particular hobbiest to task because the forecasts don't work out for you, or for him/her for that matter is kind of silly.  I will throw the snark on Kevin, or others, and rib them for a bust, but it's just that, ribbing. 

There is a difference between ribbing and being angry.  I suppose if snow is your livelihood like it seemed to be for one northern Maine (or N.H) poster a few years ago then maybe you have more invested in this than the rest of us, and you should probably rely on a forum that's less social than this one.  If not, then remember that it's just snow.  If I could have it snow every day in winter I would, but it doesn't, and I get kind of bummed, ...I throw some crap comments out there and then move on.  

And for the record, there are a few guys on here (Kevin included) whom I text away from the forum to get insight on their thoughts locally.  The forum can get clogged up with nonsense, or tangents, including my own...which is fine, and definitely not worth banning anyone over, but sometimes I like to take it off line.  Many times Kevin has been pretty reliable for my area as far snow predictions. He busts, and wish-casts  just like everyone, but more than not he has been a pretty good source for me, especially as a non - met. 

 

I was on the Accuweather forum long before joining here and snowfall calls had to be based on fact or you got warnings or banishment. This place is 100% different. The problem with that site is it's heavily Mid-Atlantic based.

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19 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I was on the Accuweather forum long before joining here and snowfall calls had to be based on fact or you got warnings or banishment. This place is 100% different. The problem with that site is it's heavily Mid-Atlantic based.

It used to be that way here as well. Accuwx was considered the weenie boards for a decade. I guess hype just sells these days in all facets of life. 

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21 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I was on the Accuweather forum long before joining here and snowfall calls had to be based on fact or you got warnings or banishment. This place is 100% different. The problem with that site is it's heavily Mid-Atlantic based.

Wow. That sounds like more serious science type stuff.  Sounds boring as hell, but to each his own.  

I am curious to know how a forecast can be based on fact.   Is there another definition of forecast that I am not aware of?

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I cannot fault anyone in n/w ct...w/c ma back into vt and upstate ny for being frustrated with how things have played out for snow the past 15-20 years and, if the shoe was on the other foot I don't believe for a second that the disappointment posts from eastern folks wouldn't be epic.

I have basically given up, my area will always suck no matter what and 1/hr baking soda events will have to be acceptable,etc,etc,etc

What played out today has happened dozens and dozens of times out east, no matter what this seems to be the regime we are stuck in and looking back through history this "eastern jackpot zone" has happened many times prior (even back to the 1717 folklore). Eastern New England sticks out just enough to get in on the goods in many events. Heck there was even a frontal passage a few weeks ago that got its self together s/e of I-84 and 1-2 inches quickly fell. The same general sentiment goes for the coastal tri state area too as they have really cleaned up as well.

I still have a general interest in weather so I follow along and still learn new things

 

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2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I cannot fault anyone in n/w ct...w/c ma back into vt and upstate ny for being frustrated with how things have played out for snow the past 15-20 years and, if the shoe was on the other foot I don't believe for a second that the disappointment posts from eastern folks wouldn't be epic.

I have basically given up, my area will always suck no matter what and 1/hr baking soda events will have to be acceptable,etc,etc,etc

What played out today has happened dozens and dozens of times out east, no matter what this seems to be the regime we are stuck in and looking back through history this "eastern jackpot zone" has happened many times prior (even back to the 1717 folklore). Eastern New England sticks out just enough to get in on the goods in many events. Heck there was even a frontal passage a few weeks ago that got its self together s/e of I-84 and 1-2 inches quickly fell

I still have a general interest in weather so I follow along and still learn new things

 

Just when you are ready to quit, you get a Feb 5, 2001 or Jan 12, 2011 or Oct 29, 2001 to suck you back in.

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