Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL tossed like a last second play in Minneapolis. 

It’s probably the upper trof producing as it comes across.  I can buy someone getting several inches if it works out but it’s not getting pinpointed for another 48 hours.  I know I got 4 inches on 12/26/04 that way and saw nothing from the offshore low itself 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL tossed like a last second play in Minneapolis. 

Why?   ... keep in mind folks, there's still a good chunk of dynamics not in the grids out there.

I mean, obviously we're not talking "likely" here... and, the assimilations/interpolation stuff does reasonably well most of the time. But, should more get relayed in over the next 12 hours, and the ridge pops a bit more polarward as it's zooming past the Rockies, then things would trend back in a real hurry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Why?   ... keep in mind folks, there's still a good chunk of dynamics not in the grids out there.

I mean, obviously we're not talking "likely" here... and, the assimilations/interpolation stuff does reasonably well most of the time. But, should more get relayed in over the next 12 hours, and the ridge pops a bit more polarward as it's zooming past the Rockies, then things would trend back in a real hurry.

A few inches is one thing, but I’d sell widespread 6-12”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have been saying to give it until 00z tonight....that said, I would be surprised with a general 6-12".

Agreed.

Friday has moderate upside.

I’m not big on Friday. Gets about as much love as this did. Obviously more time to figure that out. In fact, I’m not really into this regime change until after 6-7 or so. When that trough moves east. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not big on Friday. Gets about as much love as this did. Obviously more time to figure that out. In fact, I’m not really into this regime change until after 6-7 or so. When that trough moves east. 

Sort of in the same boat here.  Looks like we have some sort of weak wave developing on the front.  Could be squashed south with the PV

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not big on Friday. Gets about as much love as this did. Obviously more time to figure that out. In fact, I’m not really into this regime change until after 6-7 or so. When that trough moves east. 

Similar to this..yes. Moderate UPSIDE.

Totally with you on the later start....all voo doo threats through first week of Feb...at least.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The rgem is a nice s/w. Tried to buckle the flow and develop a decent slug of WAA precip well ahead of it. 

That was a pretty drastic change from the 12z run, Went from .1-.2" to 1.0"+for some areas, Maybe its one the meso's handle better, Its the happy hour run though and those have tossed us a bone only to pull back at 0z the last couple days,  I think you would need to see more onboard, But at least it will make us look at the 0z runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Similar to this..yes. Moderate UPSIDE.

Totally with you on the later start....all voo doo threats through first week of Feb...at least.

 

Yeah despite me being a total crab on here, I’m dead serious. Even that thing near or after the SB has an inside runner look. Gonna need that trough to push east a bit. I will say the previous cutter looks sure have shat the bed though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...