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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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Monday night in a coma now. It's not a good sign it got worse at 12z with better sampling. Can't totally rule it out though...it is still a pretty deep shortwave and modeling has been volatile on this threat.

At least next Friday is looking better.  

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The timing of how fast the arctic push comes is big with this because given the phase 7 MJO and the tendency for that WAR to verify stronger the last few winters this thing will end up an inland event if things don’t time out right 

Just like this one on Monday.

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 What model can you really trust in a fast flow?   I'm all done even looking at D7 solutions.   A week ago I was looking at heavy rain this weekend. 

Now you get it.  Wake up Thursday.  Maybe we have a storm threat. 

I was hopeful yesterday when the 12z Euro gave us the head fake but that was shown to be a bust.  It was also why I was hesitant to start a thread.  I was going to wait till 12z today to see.

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Yeah I'm with Will on this one ...  Now that we are sampling more into the physical sondings ...less assimilation/interpretation, this went the wrong direction.   Prior to today in particular, for storm enthusiasts you rested 'hope' from uncertainty - we have seen in the past, systems come suddenly back at 72 hours, where the most plausible culprit for the morphology being the sudden ingest into the denser/realized sounding grid upon relay off the Pacific ... And so it was not unprecedented.   Now may just be one of those times where the opposite takes place.   Still... I commiserate that it 'looks odd' the way it has a flattish wave scooting seawards...and the U/A/forcing then trucks along and induces an 'echo' with that inverted PP back west.  If nothing else, you can see what a 'near miss' phasing looks like.  Interesting..

Other interesting aspects to note for me is that despite the incredible appeal of the operational means over the last few days of cycles, re the late mid and extended range, and despite the tele numbers ... there is a tendency in the guidance to somehow prevent the cold plumes from getting much farther south of the 40th parallel over the U.S. east of the Rockies... I find that to be strange to have that much dump mechanics/CCB on a continental scale evolve, ... about -15 C at 850 is about all the transpires overhead of ORD.. huh.  Otherwise ...glancing blows ...   

Lastly ...of course as others have noted, the deal next weekend seems to have rematerialized in this Euro run... But, after the shinanigans with this thing on Monday... the onus is on the models I think to deliver some palpable evidences that it's not just based on more noise.   I'll tell you... the high gradient/velocity flow is returned(ing) and that's always hairy for models anyway. 

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11 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

 


Looks like a familiar and reasonable solution given the gradient and state of the Atlantic. Congrats SNE. Whiff from ENY to Powderfreak. Lock it in.


.

 

That can certainly trend weaker and more of a front for all. 

 

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Now you get it.  Wake up Thursday.  Maybe we have a storm threat. 

I was hopeful yesterday when the 12z Euro gave us the head fake but that was shown to be a bust.  It was also why I was hesitant to start a thread.  I was going to wait till 12z today to see.

If you had started the thread we wouldnt be in this predicament.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna have to turn the trend around quickly. This ones on life support. It's never good when better data ingestion causes a worse solution. 

 

Well the coastal never had a chance. There’ll be widespread SNE light fluffy snow with convergence/ ULL interaction. 00z will perk up a bit for the queens looking at qpf or snow maps 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Well the coastal never had a chance. There’ll be widespread SNE light fluffy snow with convergence/ ULL interaction. 00z will perk up a bit for the queens looking at qpf or snow maps 

Is the "Friday" event still showing signs of life, granted a ways off...anything else positive?

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Another aspect to point out if anyone's interesting in analyzing ...

The trough is the focus as it is being presently relayed off the Pacific .. however, I suggest the handling of the wave spacing/amplitude wrt to the western ridge is also related to how this thing will ultimately behave. 

It's not really that 'tall' or strong, and so, it doesn't really impose the effect of helping to slow down and dig downs stream. I'm looking at that wind max ..and it's differentiable in the flow enough .. But it's passing into a region of the total wave space that's not really as supportive of getting the necessary feedback from the large scale curvature and so forth. 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well the coastal never had a chance. There’ll be widespread SNE light fluffy snow with convergence/ ULL interaction. 00z will perk up a bit for the queens looking at qpf or snow maps 

Not sure why you are so confident in IVT snows. Those are hard to predict even 24 hours out. It's possible that sets up over us...it's currently not forecasted to by model guidance though. But either way, I wouldn't be relying on that for 1-2" of snow right now. 

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