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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Didn't seem to be a problem Jan 18th 2011

 

I didn't say it was an awful pattern...of course there's storms that can happen in that setup...we're just going to be at risk for cutters west there...there is room for them on that longwave pattern. If the ridge was further east, you typically have either big snow hits or whiffs out to sea ala 2015....or if you have a -NAO, you can force the systems further south more often that might otherwise be cutters...turn them into SWFEs and/or redevelopers.

 

I'm fine with the pattern shown, but its fair to point out the potential issues as well since we are once again relying 100% on the PAC.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I didn't say it was an awful pattern...of course there's storms that can happen in that setup...we're just going to be at risk for cutters west there...there is room for them on that longwave pattern. If the ridge was further east, you typically have either big snow hits or whiffs out to sea ala 2015....or if you have a -NAO, you can force the systems further south more often that might otherwise be cutters...turn them into SWFEs and/or redevelopers.

 

I'm fine with the pattern shown, but its fair to point out the potential issues as well since we are once again relying 100% on the PAC.

I just remember Feb 2003 and Jan 11 in very similar setups, with smoothing those EPS numbers are outrageous, watch the cold get deeper and more expansive. Very psyched and not all worried about cutters at this range.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

link to extreme sustained EPOs not producing not your garden variety transient ones either

Jan '85 and Jan '59 sucked donkey balls in most of New England despite big -EPOs. Jan '79 was pretty frustrating in SNE.

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

February 89 was the worst luck ever.  I think there was also a SSW that month as well.  It was a combination of suppression and I believe another period where the trof was centered too far west in the plains 

Yeah not a fun month as a young snow lover...cold/cutter/cold pattern happened late that month with the 2nd round of cold in that sequence being part of the big coastal bust storm on Feb 24-25, 1989. Goit about 3-4 inches of sand from a 1-2 foot forecast...though that's better than NYC-DCA got...they got nothing I think while ACY got 18".

 

I remember like almost 2-3 straight weeks of cold and then a hideous cutter on the 20th or 21st. Then the busted snowstorm after the cutter. That winter was a classic 1980s torture chamber.

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I didn't say it was an awful pattern...of course there's storms that can happen in that setup...we're just going to be at risk for cutters west there...there is room for them on that longwave pattern. If the ridge was further east, you typically have either big snow hits or whiffs out to sea ala 2015....or if you have a -NAO, you can force the systems further south more often that might otherwise be cutters...turn them into SWFEs and/or redevelopers.

 

I'm fine with the pattern shown, but its fair to point out the potential issues as well since we are once again relying 100% on the PAC.

so basically, the weather is going to do what it will do

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

so basically, the weather is going to do what it will do

Yep...biased it cold in that pattern, but there's a lot of chance for volatility. But who knows, it may look a little different by the time we get closer. It is a spot image after all over 10 days out.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah not a fun month as a young snow lover...cold/cutter/cold pattern happened late that month with the 2nd round of cold in that sequence being part of the big coastal bust storm on Feb 24-25, 1989. Goit about 3-4 inches of sand from a 1-2 foot forecast...though that's better than NYC-DCA got...they got nothing I think while ACY got 18".

 

I remember like almost 2-3 straight weeks of cold and then a hideous cutter on the 20th or 21st. Then the busted snowstorm after the cutter. That winter was a classic 1980s torture chamber.

I vividly remember the Feb 1989 coastal bust.  I was a kid in SW CT, and the forecast was so dire that they preemptively cancelled school.  We had no accumulation, and possibly not even a flake despite heavy returns on the radar and video of the ACY blizzard on the Weather Channel.  I think that's when I learned about virga.  It took quite a while for the TV mets to acknowledge that the storm wasn't actually coming.

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

February 89 was the worst luck ever.  I think there was also a SSW that month as well.  It was a combination of suppression and I believe another period where the trof was centered too far west in the plains 

 

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan '85 and Jan '59 sucked donkey balls in most of New England despite big -EPOs. Jan '79 was pretty frustrating in SNE.

Jan 85 neg nao Jan 59 first 20 days neg NAO Jan 79 22 of 31 days neg NAO. Basically Feb 89 is left.  I will take my chances on an extreme negative EPO with a positive NAO

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Jan 85 neg nao Jan 59 first 20 days neg NAO Jan 79 22 of 31 days neg NAO. Basically Feb 89 is left.  I will take my chances on an extreme negative EPO with a positive NAO

I just named a few off the top of my head, I'm sure I could dig up more.

 

My point isn't to try and say the pattern shown is bad...in fact, I believe I have said multiple times that winter returns in early February...but you asked for examples of when EPO didn't deliver and I gave them. We will probably cash in during the next -EPO phase...but people shouldn't be surprised if we get a cutter or two either if that type of pattern verifies as shown.

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10 minutes ago, sankaty said:

I vividly remember the Feb 1989 coastal bust.  I was a kid in SW CT, and the forecast was so dire that they preemptively cancelled school.  We had no accumulation, and possibly not even a flake despite heavy returns on the radar and video of the ACY blizzard on the Weather Channel.  I think that's when I learned about virga.  It took quite a while for the TV mets to acknowledge that the storm wasn't actually coming.

I actually don’t recall much Virga.  I do know the DC Metro had tons of it though, maybe several hours worth and there was a video awhile back out there of one of the TV Mets continually stating the snow was going to reach the ground anytime now 

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11 minutes ago, sankaty said:

I vividly remember the Feb 1989 coastal bust.  I was a kid in SW CT, and the forecast was so dire that they preemptively cancelled school.  We had no accumulation, and possibly not even a flake despite heavy returns on the radar and video of the ACY blizzard on the Weather Channel.  I think that's when I learned about virga.  It took quite a while for the TV mets to acknowledge that the storm wasn't actually coming.

I recall this part too...I remember by Friday night when it hadn't started yet and was 6-8 hours late, they were still insisting it would go to town.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Money in the bank, your PNA love is over the top. Always looking for the perfect setup and the surprise surprise.

EPOnew_neg_02feb.png

The +PNA definitely reduces cutter chances. You sort of risk that with the -EPO. But whatever. I’ll take the look. It’s better to have it kiss the west coast. Vs AK.

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15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

11-15 was disrobable though-plain and simple.  Wow!  

We look at that and see loads of potential others see cutter risk

 They would rather have a pos PNA and a -NAO so we get a south of the Pike special, happy 2 year anniversary DC NYC to that setup. Daily NAO 2016 1-20/1/22 

2016  1 20 -0.305
2016  1 21 -0.285
2016  1 22 -0.080

Daily PNA

2016  1 21  1.243
2016  1 22  1.509
2016  1 23  1.687
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All kidding aside we always have a risk to cut but lets see how this evolves over time. I see that EPO bulge and as hapenned in Dec the models place the core too far upstream. Like I said I can picture us having a normal to below normal temperature regime which in the first weeks of Feb is gold. I will be stunned if by Feb 12th we haven't had a major snow storm

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41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I never knew someone who had such a hard on for the EPO. 

It makes sense though.  Different areas want different things.  If I'm Ginxy I want the PV overhead if possible.  Get it as cold as possible, you're right on the ocean, it doesn't take much to snow if it's 15F on the beaches with energy going underneath.  He'll usually get in on a Mid-Atlantic bomb even if it's a deeply suppressed pattern there on the south coast.

 

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