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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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10 hours ago, weathafella said:

Damned Scooter-some serious hatred for Judah.   If the AO idea tied to snow cover is bogus, fine.  Without advancing and testing out thoughts science doesn’t move forward.  Unfortunately the sample size in wx is just not large enough for many issues to reliably correlate scientifically.   Thankfully in medical research population studies have an n of tens of thousands making correlation a lot easier to accept.  

We simply don’t have enough data in wx to draw reliable conclusions yet-we haven’t been able to measure a lot of things until fairly recently limiting sample size and making long range forecasting pre-season not that accurate.

Saying Judah doesn’t know anything is an unfair low blow. 

He doesn't have as firm of a grasp on seasonal forecasting as you would think for someone so esteemed...you can tell from reading his material. Strikes me as a research meteorologist by trade, whose most fruitful endeavor has drawn him out of his element (the lab) and into the forecasting field, which is not his speciality.

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4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Looks like the question is becoming exactly "when" not "if".  GFS and Euro and CRS (been reading Ventrice) all pointing to a cold and snowy later winter.  GEFS seemed to indicate we get back into it after the cutter next weekend.  Euro seems to say it takes a few days longer.  Ray ftw incoming.

Same for EPS-Super Bowl weekend.

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so what's the history with this Judah person?  

i frankly have dodged a lot of that clatter; i figured presumably (at risk..) that he was another Joe "toss the most dramatic call against the wall" Bastardi, and then rely on the hoi polloi's inability to substantively grade his forecasts because they are caught up in the specter of the 'big storm' ... to come off as some sort of gushing "jenius"  and so have avoided it.  

but i'm just curious what he (or anyone for that matter) said about 2015 ... I could go out and google it but if anyone cares to paraphrase ? 

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

By early afternoon the saturation should be enough that we get some steady precip, probably light snow. 

Yea. Evening commute, and especially tomorrow am's commute looks nasty....

We lucked out this morning by a degree or two. Temp was 33/34 with Td around freezing. But you can see and feel the CAD drain already, and we are probably at or close to freezing now. 

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24 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

These cutters are barely verifying. Look at next weekend. The storm went from a cutter to a whiff now.

That sort of led to less cold though.  The difference in how deep that cold press was before the final cutting system has dramatically reduced the last 2 model cycles and they’ve weakened the system 

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