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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

02 03 was sick down here since when do you care outside your backyard anyways

Underrated winter. ORH had 117.3" in that winter and basically wire to wire snow pack. That's the 4th snowiest winter on record. Sneaky cold winter too even though we didn't have a signature arctic outbreak with highs well into single numbers. Maybe Jan 22-23 was close but just a ton of consistent -10 to -20 type departure days. I think only 1993-1994 and 1970-1971 were colder at ORH since 1950. 

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19 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess to me it makes sense. I’m not shocked at what it’s doing. The whole thing is not a good setup. No good PV really pressing south either. The heights are actually rising and we lack the push from the north. That’s a fail right there for good CAD. 

We ice/snow on Monday night into Tuesday morning, but what’s really screwing this event up from being predominately cold in CNE/ all of NNE is the last minute PV interaction you point out. I think if we didn’t have that this is much more of a miller B outcome, similar to what the Thurs. 0z EPS showed.

Can’t argue that the phase—of varying degrees and timing—is showing up across guidance. Although it should be noted that this interaction carries significantly higher amounts of forecast uncertainty with it given the region this whole process is suppose to occur and how important it is to the sensible weather outcomes in CNE/NNE.

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wish they can dry up down the coast enough to play. I hit the range yesterday at least. 

temporary greens right now, but they should open the greens after the rain and all the ice melts off

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Tomorrow, Tuesday, Next Sunday/Monday.  Maybe even after that as we close out the month and into early February.  Close the shades on snowstorms in SNE for the next 2 weeks.  Enjoy the relative warmth.  Go golfing, walk the dog, play Frisbee.

Go to breweries, drink beers, pour a lil out for ya homies 

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54 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Tomorrow, Tuesday, Next Sunday/Monday.  Maybe even after that as we close out the month and into early February.  Close the shades on snowstorms in SNE for the next 2 weeks.  Enjoy the relative warmth.  Go golfing, walk the dog, play Frisbee.

GFS cuts next weekends storm over Minneapolis, rain for the entire eastern third of the conus.  Do you even call it a cutter when it's that far W? Lol

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It would be nice to get a semi-sustained -NAO for once. Can't seem to buy one. We've been relying on the pacific so much. We had that brief one in late November for about 7-10 days. That's really been it. Seems like this will basically be the 5th winter in a row where we are almost exclusively reliant on the pacific. Last time we didn't was 2012-2013. 

Luckily the pacific is been very cooperative for the most part, but we get a lot of these cutter type patterns when it breaks down whereas if we had a solid -NAO, you'd force some more wintry solutions. 

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

We ice/snow on Monday night into Tuesday morning, but what’s really screwing this event up from being predominately cold in CNE/ all of NNE is the last minute PV interaction you point out. I think if we didn’t have that this is much more of a miller B outcome, similar to what the Thurs. 0z EPS showed.

Can’t argue that the phase—of varying degrees and timing—is showing up across guidance. Although it should be noted that this interaction carries significantly higher amounts of forecast uncertainty with it given the region this whole process is suppose to occur and how important it is to the sensible weather outcomes in CNE/NNE.

 

There's other mitigations though ... the position of the polar high (Scott noted this yesterday but it really become a bit more pronounced in last night's Euro oper. run) is backing off. The ballast of it's mass as of last night's run is back toward southern J.B. ... yesterday it was mid way to Maine, while yet further ... many of those colder model cycles from earlier in the week had a node more ideally situated N of Maine. 

I saw that Euro run last night and figured ...welp, the warmistas just flat f'n won this thing and it's time to move on.  Even for central NE regions this is just one of those scenarios where the cold/lead side high pressure flat out corrected less, rather than more.  

What I find interesting is that we do typically see that the models have to correct more ... but this time the typology went a-typical.  I think in a now-cast sense it's occurring true, too, because we are bottle-rocketing our temps here this morning along Rt 2 in Massachusetts, when in the runs just two days ago ... we were 'supposed' to be on the N side of the boundary. So already the boundary is backing off in the verification.  Turns out ... there are actually two boundaries on the charts... There's a half-assed one down extended seaward of the M/A... but it's really ineffectual on the temperture distribution and probably air density therein.. meanwhile, the more important robust one is west east over NNE .. That's not very good handling by any model frankly - actually ...you could argue the GGEM did better with that, if anyone cares to look back..

The less high pressure and the strong waa mechanics combined... other than some specific localized climo to offset, I think it's time to focus on Football - ha. 

we'll see

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Anyway, ... it's a longish ten days in wait for those that really need their winter expression ( and I mean that with the sincerest sympathies :) ), but the 00z indicators were substantially improved in that regard beginning circa the 28th and moving onward. Suck it up for a week and you'll be rewarded ... or, bich and complain and grouse and make the internet passtime miserable for yourself and others, then when it comes ..you get rewarded. Either way, it's probably coming.

The quick points (ha, quick my ass) are that the CPC agency PNA values show a strongly concerted rise toward +1 SD from a beginning position ~ -1 SD.  Particulars in the operational trends by both the Euro (cross-guidance support is always a confidence lender), combined with the GFS when spatial-temporally applied to the timing of the former, that's usually a strong signal when that happens.  Seeing Allan Huffman's contribution/tweet above ( yes ... it is true [ enter rollin' eyes emoji here] Kevin actually found a useful tweet...), argues vividly that any teleconnector derivatives based upon the EPS mass-fields pretty much have to be on the same page as the GEFs.

So, with reasonably confidence, that means that this "thaw" ... prooobably does not represent the end and early spring.  Not that it was ever in question in early January; still, we have to admit, 2012 is too recent in the hearts and minds of the beleaguered winter enthusiastic warriors to so arrogantly presume it impossible that winter would end just the same.  I don't see that happening at all here, as 2015 also reminds us: February is our snowiest month for a reason ;)

Hyperbole aside:  the WPO was strongly negative recently and still is.. .The EPO has not been so.  Typically, the WPO leads the EPO and should really; in the conceptual model, events in Earth's atmosphere move from west to east.  Low and behold, I checked this morning and sure enough (if perhaps 'finally' phew :) ) the EPO tanks in the extended. I think what is really going on there is that massive ridge node that's severed and quite powerfully anomalous, over the rough vicinity of Kamchatka, is being displaced in all guidance over night. That geographical redistribution in the mass-field anomalies ...is alleviated some of the negative WPO and giving it back to the EPO as the ridge moves closer to the Alaskan sector.

What I also find a little interesting as a caboose consideration here is that the MJO is in a robust phase 4 ... that's not good for the geese, but moving swiftly... through 5 and 6 in just the next week's worth of time may be very good for the gander.  It's unclear a bit where it goes beyond that ... The EPS and GFS differ out there at the typical stochastic ... mop-ended members ... however, it seems that the wave "could" move around into a more constructive wave interference scheme, one perhaps timed pretty well with the stuff above. That really could almost be a tipping point that sets the roulette wheel spinning ... completely reshuffling the wave spacing around the hemisphere. I've always said, the MJO is a wave interference factor, more so than a wave -guide. When it off-sets, it's hard to prove it's offsetting sometimes, but when it's adding, look out.  It's kind of like seeing an ally oop play setting up in a basketball fast break play, before the pituitary cases are actually in position... the tension grows, as the they pivot around like fast motion chess pieces, then boom, and the crowd goes nuts.  

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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

There's other mitigations though ... the position of the polar high (Scott noted this yesterday but it really become a bit more pronounced in last night's Euro oper. run) is backing off. The ballast of it's mass as of last night's run is back toward southern J.B. ... yesterday it was mid way to Maine, while yet further ... many of those colder model cycles from earlier in the week had a node more ideally situated N of Maine. 

I saw that Euro run last night and figured ...welp, the warmistas just flat f'n won this thing and it's time to move on.  Even for central NE regions this is just one of those scenarios where the cold/lead side high pressure flat out corrected less, rather than more.  

What I find interesting is that we do typically see that the models have to correct more ... but this time the typology went a-typical.  I think in a now-cast sense it's occurring true, too, because we are bottle-rocketing our temps here this morning along Rt 2 in Massachusetts, when in the runs just two days ago ... we were 'supposed' to be on the N side of the boundary. So already the boundary is backing off in the verification.  Turns out ... there are actually two boundaries on the charts... There's a half-assed one down extended seaward of the M/A... but it's really ineffectual on the temperture distribution and probably air density therein.. meanwhile, the more important robust one is west east over NNE .. That's not very good handling by any model frankly - actually ...you could argue the GGEM did better with that, if anyone cares to look back..

The less high pressure and the strong waa mechanics combined... other than some specific localized climo to offset, I think it's time to focus on Football - ha. 

we'll see

Good points. What are your thoughts on that trailing shortwave crashing into the PAC NW tonight. This feature has definitely been trending stronger across guidance and is deampifying our storm through destructive wave interference. You can even see this on the latest GFS—less wave amplification trending towards less PV interaction and a slightly weaker system overall.

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28 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Good points. What are your thoughts on that trailing shortwave crashing into the PAC NW tonight. This feature has definitely been trending stronger across guidance and is deampifying our storm through destructive wave interference. You can even see this on the latest GFS—less wave amplification trending towards less PV interaction and a slightly weaker system overall.

Honestly... I hadn't considered that... but, not that you've mentioned it looks to help keep things moving along but I don't see it's 'damping' effectiveness as being significant enough to alter that general tapestry of events with this ordeal from late Monday through Tuesday. 

But, it only takes 10 minutes of additional icing to skid a school bus full of ingrate middle schooled, over-achievers of concealed deviancy into a ditch and make the evening news so... I suppose considering all scales and moving parts in society, sure, we should keep an eye on it -

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