JC-CT Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 You guys think we'll keep this pack through the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I heard from some friends in Western Maine that said they've never seen snow disappear so fast as in that thaw. They were going backcountry skiing in Baxter State Park and said they lost about 2 feet in 48 hours. That thaw didn't have the usual CAD and seemed worst to the east as we at least went below freezing to a mixed bag about 18 hours prior to similar latitude in eastern New England. I sort of was thinking the same thing. I was expecting to lose all of it but other than some fields that had been scoured by the wind we have full coverage. It could have been worse, though it was still awful enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 We are getting close to an all frozen event for next tues up here, Ea model runs seems to be slipping that SLP a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: We are getting close to an all frozen event for next tues up here, Ea model runs seems to be slipping that SLP a little further south. Nice to see that trend showing up at this lead time... plenty of time to work out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, tunafish said: Nice to see that trend showing up at this lead time... plenty of time to work out the details. Been keeping an eye on it, It was tracking well to the north of Maine and now its tracking over us, If we can get this to go under SNE it would be a real nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Do we have anything to look forward to next week in SNE or is it a rainer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do we have anything to look forward to next week in SNE or is it a rainer? Probably a rainer, although I would watch for some ice maybe if this builds more south. Esp ORH county area and Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Probably a rainer, although I would watch for some ice maybe if this builds more south. Esp ORH county area and Berks. More great news. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: More great news. Oh well Close the shades for a bit. Enjoy the warm weather this weekend. Do something outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 the previous night's GEF's derived tele's offered some hope to close out the month.. but, last nights? egh... not that anyone asked, but the problem for me is that ...if this boat ride fully commits to the water fall I'm all for the ride ...but dimes to donuts... we'll keep fiddling with reasons to not commit to a truly warm explosion and early onset of spring and instead get the worst of both seasons out of it. that's what i dread. i really hate the garbage days of April... I hate them even more when it's January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: the previous night's GEF's derived tele's offered some hope to close out the month.. but, last nights? egh... Tip, February look better then Jan? regarding cold and more events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, 512high said: Tip, February look better then Jan? regarding cold and more events? that's getting outside the range for the typical tele's progs. other's have different methods for that sort of long lead assessment - I don't normally employ those. so if anyone else wants to chime in on Feb ? otherwise ... early springs are not unprecedented in La Ninas ...to which this qualifies as a neutral-negative ENSO mid/end winter so - not saying much tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I heard from some friends in Western Maine that said they've never seen snow disappear so fast as in that thaw. They were going backcountry skiing in Baxter State Park and said they lost about 2 feet in 48 hours. That thaw didn't have the usual CAD and seemed worst to the east as we at least went below freezing to a mixed bag about 18 hours prior to similar latitude in eastern New England. '95-'96 was one of my analogs for a reason....blizzard, then bang....poof. Reload for late run. Right now we are seeing the 2006 analog surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 This is one mother-f'er for a BD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is one mother-f'er for a BD! When is that time stamped for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is one mother-f'er for a BD! I hope this spring isn't brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope this spring isn't brutal. Is the fantasy beisbol league happening? That would help deal with mud season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, mreaves said: I sort of was thinking the same thing. I was expecting to lose all of it but other than some fields that had been scoured by the wind we have full coverage. It could have been worse, though it was still awful enough. I'm in South Burlington looking at furniture today (shoot me) but I have to say this is probably one of the most wintry places around. Looks like they got at least 7-8" of good dense snow from the "thaw"...good snowbanks and everything. It just has that "mid-winter" look of unmolested snow from the thaw because of that warning snow they got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope this spring isn't brutal. HAHA... right... That boundary separates "probably" high teens in Aroostook Maine from high 50s and 60s at State College in PA... Notice the wet-bulbing sleet for Kevin just behind the lip of the boundary their in CT... Oh holy hell in this geography... Really, the airline industry should really study our fluid dynamics and learn how to really up the efficiency of their intake manifolds because this area of the world just uniquely sucks air mass SW like it's pulling tennis balls through garden hoses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When is that time stamped for? 2 pm Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 A high in that position N of the Maine in the spring would mean death....no way that 37-42F mist/drizzle/fog airmass would get dislodged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A high in that position N of the Maine in the spring would mean death....no way that 37-42F mist/drizzle/fog airmass would get dislodged. no kidding... best to 'hope' for it to become more dominant and just winterize the lower 200 mb of the tropos entirely... that would also set stage for a bit of an interesting ... come to think about it... if that Lakes cut minors out a little bit and that high is ... 5 mb stronger or whatever, it's interesting how these little variance make for ginormous sensible impacts down where it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 Actually .. not that it matters much, but technically the boundary can be analyzed in the previous couple of frames as having sagged down to Rt 2 by 00z Monday (7 pm Sunday..) ... it pivots overnight down toward CT and then around sunrise it's more of a BD for them and points farther into the upper MA... quibbling over details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Is the fantasy beisbol league happening? That would help deal with mud season. As far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 This winter has an extremely wrong appeal to it.....it may be the whole December was good thing only to have lost all of the hard work to that insanity last week.....I’d rather not thank you very much.....it’s too annoying..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: More great news. Oh well Some would even call it a relaxation...and if you're very bold...a thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, ice1972 said: This winter has an extremely wrong appeal to it.....it may be the whole December was good thing only to have lost all of the hard work to that insanity last week.....I’d rather not thank you very much.....it’s too annoying..... it's probably a conversation one engages in at extreme risk ... because it's 100 % subjective.... But I'd take this so far over anything that happened end to end last year. I also think folks should let things marinade ... the pattern coming in could break exceedingly warm - it certainly could. won't deny it... But, it could also end up transitory, which isn't bad because that offers at least excitement. Last year was banal ...period. storms were pedestrian if at all... and it was like the atmosphere its self was parameterizing to NOT do anything like on purpose... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just get me to average and I'll call it good. I think thats about another 20" or so for Boston. We have all of Feb. and March to do that so it's plausible at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: it's probably a conversation one engages in at extreme risk ... because it's 100 % subjective.... But I'd take this so far over anything that happened end to end last year. I also think folks should let things marinade ... the pattern coming in could break exceedingly warm - it certainly could. won't deny it... But, it could also end up transitory, which isn't bad because that offers at least excitement. Last year was banal ...period. storms were pedestrian if at all... and it was like the atmosphere its self was parameterizing to NOT do anything like on purpose... heh Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's probably a conversation one engages in at extreme risk ... because it's 100 % subjective.... But I'd take this so far over anything that happened end to end last year. I also think folks should let things marinade ... the pattern coming in could break exceedingly warm - it certainly could. won't deny it... But, it could also end up transitory, which isn't bad because that offers at least excitement. Last year was banal ...period. storms were pedestrian if at all... and it was like the atmosphere its self was parameterizing to NOT do anything like on purpose... heh So for the delinquent (me !) your saying if that keeps or would drop "down" more we have a ice event or possible snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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