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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you wet we dry . We need wet 

Yeah you need something where its really only accumulating above like 750ft for that....tough to get a wet snowstorm at all elevations. 

I feel like we see a few wet snow events per season in New England but they are lighter 2-6" type variety... getting that 15" of pure paste is a tall order, one because the temperatures can't change during the storm (often if you start wet, it cools a couple degrees and you get powder when the winds go NW) and just need a constant firehose of moisture to accumulate to those levels at 32F.

 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you need something where its really only accumulating above like 750ft for that....tough to get a wet snowstorm at all elevations. 

I feel like we see a few wet snow events per season in New England but they are lighter 2-6" type variety... getting that 15" of pure paste is a tall order, one because the temperatures can't change during the storm (often if you start wet, it cools a couple degrees and you get powder when the winds go NW) and just need a constant firehose of moisture to accumulate to those levels at 32F.

 

Need a Dec 92 setup. Hopefully this is that 

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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you need something where its really only accumulating above like 750ft for that....tough to get a wet snowstorm at all elevations. 

I feel like we see a few wet snow events per season in New England but they are lighter 2-6" type variety... getting that 15" of pure paste is a tall order, one because the temperatures can't change during the storm (often if you start wet, it cools a couple degrees and you get powder when the winds go NW) and just need a constant firehose of moisture to accumulate to those levels at 32F.

 

Yeah anything above 6" is quite tough. Last winter 12/29 was close on winter hill. I think up on weenie ridge in Princeton though they had like 11" of cement...it was awesome. We actually tainted with rain for like 45 minutes at the height...so that cost us an inch or two probably...it was really ripping at that point.

 

Aside from that...storms over 6" of paste in recent memory for ORH?

Feb 24, 2013 (8" norlun paste bomb)

MLK 2010 (the Kevin epic meltdown storm, about 8-9" of paste)

Feb 24, 2010 (firehose from the southeast before the retrobomb that rained on everyone...almost a foot of blue snow)

 

 

Close calls:

 

MLK 2014 (IVT/norlun again....but only 5.5")

March 2013 firehose....started as paste, but after about 4-6" it went powdery.

Previously mentioned 12/29/16

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

don't you have 30 inches so far this season?

lol no....I don't think so....if anything its like 20 at most......for me the season is more than just the total snowfall and where that stacks up against average......if we got 2" of snow every third day for December, January, and February, I would end up with 60" of snow on the season and it would totally be a forgettable season.....

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7 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

lol no....I don't think so....if anything its like 20 at most......for me the season is more than just the total snowfall and where that stacks up against average......if we got 2" of snow every third day for December, January, and February, I would end up with 60" of snow on the season and it would totally be a forgettable season.....

Totally agree.  Give me one 18-24 dump once a month December through February even if it melts in between and it’s a way better winter than 5 inches a week that doesn’t melt.

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17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Totally agree.  Give me one 18-24 dump once a month December through February even if it melts in between and it’s a way better winter than 5 inches a week that doesn’t melt.

Agree except I would modify yours a bit.....one 18-24 in the season would be fine as long as there are 3 or 4 6-12 events peppered at just the right frequency so that the pack sticks around wire to wire......and no rainers.....a rainer is like death.....it kills the season......winter has a mood and a feel and it has to be just right to get a special one.....many factors

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6 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Agree except I would modify yours a bit.....one 18-24 in the season would be fine as long as there are 3 or 4 6-12 events peppered at just the right frequency so that the pack sticks around wire to wire......and no rainers.....a rainer is like death.....it kills the season......winter has a mood and a feel and it has to be just right to get a special one.....many factors

I don’t think we’ve ever had a wire to wire season of snow cover....at least not in my lifetime.  The very best winters had some enormous thaws and rainers.

 

maybe one exception-1960-61

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Just now, weathafella said:

I don’t think we’ve ever had a wire to wire season of snow cover....at least not in my lifetime.  The very best winters had some enormous thaws and rainers.

I have to remind myself I am not in Lake Tahoe sometimes......

Edit:  lol the snow report out of Lake Tahoe......disaster.....

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I dunno ... I remember several storms in my time up over 8" with temps between 30 and 32 ... to which i consider that the same thing.  A 30.4 F heavy snow will be "packable" awesome snowball snow.

1992 Dec the first half of that white out was 10" to a foot of 31.8ness ...  then it yeah it cooled through the 20's starting at dawn.   1997 was almost entirely a 30 to 32F ordeal and it snowed 30" in spots.

The definition of blue bomb is ..well, local to our usage of course, but it comes about because you get blue snow at bomb rates...  I think it's easier physically to snow more than 6" at 32 than people are making it out to be.  Getting storms to actually happen at 32?  that's seems to be a tall order in recent times.  It's like our winters are only winter if we're beating the tundra drums of the Inuit ... It's either got to be above normal to tune of pushing daisies and swellin' forsythias, or 10 F cobweb whiteouts. It really has been that way perhaps more literally than figuratively at that.

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Well as expected, with the stronger EPS MSLP signal there is a stronger variance signal in the ensemble sensitivity. The overall explained variance is fairly low (35%), but it is a stronger, western monopole. The second pattern is a NE/SW dipole (speed variance) at 27%. 

We don't really get much a coherent sensitivity pattern until 60-72 hours from now (12z) with the shortwave dropping out of Hudson Bay. We would want to see that deeper in the 60-72 hours window to get something farther west and stronger.

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36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno ... I remember several storms in my time up over 8" with temps between 30 and 32 ... to which i consider that the same thing.  A 30.4 F heavy snow will be "packable" awesome snowball snow.

1992 Dec the first half of that white out was 10" to a foot of 31.8ness ...  then it yeah it cooled through the 20's starting at dawn.   1997 was almost entirely a 30 to 32F ordeal and it snowed 30" in spots.

The definition of blue bomb is ..well, local to our usage of course, but it comes about because you get blue snow at bomb rates...  I think it's easier physically to snow more than 6" at 32 than people are making it out to be.  Getting storms to actually happen at 32?  that's seems to be a tall order in recent times.  It's like our winters are only winter if we're beating the tundra drums of the Inuit ... It's either got to be above normal to tune of pushing daisies and swellin' forsythias, or 10 F cobweb whiteouts. It really has been that way perhaps more literally than figuratively at that.

It def seems like we had more of them in the 1990s. The recent strong -EPO episodes we've had over the past few winters probably plays into the 10F cobweb whiteout theme a little more than blue bombs....we get that frigid Siberian dump into Canada and there you go for the source region. We prob need more moderate or neutral EPO and a neggy NAO may also be useful for the classic cutoff blue bomb patterns...I suppose they don't have to be cutoffs, but we often see them that way (ala Dec '92/Apr '97 or even a March 4-5, 1993...an overlooked storm BTW before that centennial powderkeg a week later).

 

These exotic EPO blocks seem to promote the extremes more easily...you get the insane outbreaks of arctic cold...but then we fold that sucker over and drop the arctic trough into the rockies or PAC NW and we're riding the Bahamas express for a few days.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It def seems like we had more of them in the 1990s. The recent strong -EPO episodes we've had over the past few winters probably plays into the 10F cobweb whiteout theme a little more than blue bombs....we get that frigid Siberian dump into Canada and there you go for the source region. We prob need more moderate or neutral EPO and a neggy NAO may also be useful for the classic cutoff blue bomb patterns...I suppose they don't have to be cutoffs, but we often see them that way (ala Dec '92/Apr '97 or even a March 4-5, 1993...an overlooked storm BTW before that centennial powderkeg a week later).

 

These exotic EPO blocks seem to promote the extremes more easily...you get the insane outbreaks of arctic cold...but then we fold that sucker over and drop the arctic trough into the rockies or PAC NW and we're riding the Bahamas express for a few days.

Yeah ...those are great causality points... the difference between EPO and NAO sourcing ...I could definitely see that as environmentally endemic in either era.  We are in an EPO era, no question.  In the 1990's, they were handing out neg NAOs like life-savers... it was like automatic.  Doesn't mean we can't have a bb in either case...

Fascinating when you think about that, and what about the whole circulation is mandating one or the other.   But that's gotta be it dude.  Siberian air versus transporting the N. Ontario air..... Plus, with the NAO you can get that stalled rotted polar high fake warmth 41 for a high crap for days over slow pack death. Slow mover up from the south and some dynamics and suddenly it's blowing off roof tops.

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26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well as expected, with the stronger EPS MSLP signal there is a stronger variance signal in the ensemble sensitivity. The overall explained variance is fairly low (35%), but it is a stronger, western monopole. The second pattern is a NE/SW dipole (speed variance) at 27%. 

We don't really get much a coherent sensitivity pattern until 60-72 hours from now (12z) with the shortwave dropping out of Hudson Bay. We would want to see that deeper in the 60-72 hours window to get something farther west and stronger.

It is interesting how the nipple low on he gfs is basically not something to reckon with now. Some of th ensembles even yesterday honed in on Wed-thurs.

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32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well as expected, with the stronger EPS MSLP signal there is a stronger variance signal in the ensemble sensitivity. The overall explained variance is fairly low (35%), but it is a stronger, western monopole. The second pattern is a NE/SW dipole (speed variance) at 27%. 

We don't really get much a coherent sensitivity pattern until 60-72 hours from now (12z) with the shortwave dropping out of Hudson Bay. We would want to see that deeper in the 60-72 hours window to get something farther west and stronger.

Good stuff.

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