ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 OP Euro is by far the most amplified out of all the guidance. Obviously you hedge toward something less robust at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Such a slow and interesting evolution tues-thurs. Looks to me like there will be at least a moderate storm for much of New England, maybe a big storm. After that, does it look like we are setting up for a cutter with low pressure coming out of the rockies and a big ridge in the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 That K. map doesn't make a lot of sense to me in the DCA to ORH axis... Given to the total evolution and the typical index finger parameters for determining p-type and amounts, that product is likely wrong. That is the quintessentially perfect KU storm in this Euro run. The wave being deep and over George where it's wind maxes arcs around the nadir of the trough, and then turns NNE astride the East Coast riding all the way up ...initially over top and then crossing the Gulf Stream ...closing off a mid level center some -4 or more SD: even a marginal lower thickness interval event entry results in prolific snow production. I suspect that K. product probably doesn't consider these a-priori and/or other very real factors, and just applies 850s to pwats or something... I dunno, but that's bullschit... You'd be talking 10+" Phillies southern 'burbs and probably double that at PVD in RI. The differences/reasons there in, for the Euro versus the less constructed appeals of the other guidance' is clear to me. There is a noted diffference in the mechanical wave space of the trough as it is descending through Canada and ...well, careening is more like it, and then ultimately starts turning E into the lower MV region D4 (96 hours). The Euro has more wave dynamics back through New Mexico/Texas, where contrasting, these other guidance unilaterally have noticeably less heights falls/wind velocities in the deep layer at that time. ... Thus, conserving what they must down stream, the Euro encounters (and this is key..) a lowering resistant/less compressed/ less pre-soaked velocity rich atmosphere over the SE US, and so there is a negative (eventual) rotation of the southern end of the trough (i.e., less shearing) and the rest is what it is... Not sure why the other models have less wave mechanics in the southern aspect of the L/W like that...but, I suspect it has to do with sampling/initialization. If one tracks the perturbation backward in time, they will find that it's not coming from the Pacific like normally these do.. .It's arrived over the Arctic domain, and is getting sent south by a flexed amplitude of EPO domain space way up there... The Euro just seems to either sample more mechanics strength, or corrects that way... but, it ends up with more power in the deep south. I annotated the chart at the beginning of this thread to help elucidate this stuff... Here's the thing... the Euro is said to need day 4 before it gets into its so-called wheelhouse. Is that the same everywhere? Because a unilateral application of that adage results in an important philosophical consideration there... The higher (or higher enough..) amplitude over Texas as this thing turns the corner there is DAY 4! Well ...aren't we to assume that is IN said wheelhouse? If so... then the other guidance would more likely be wrong ...because all the Euro does after that is rightfully conserves the additional wave mechanics on into D5-6-7. Unless that day 4 wheelhouse jargon is only applicable Worcester... I dunno. I guess ...let's get today's 12z run in with some consistency... if it shows even 75% of a similar complexion for that time frame...I'd argue away from the flatter appeals. Also, there are other more holistic arguments in favor of the Euro (not per se...but more development). For one, the PNA is quite positive (though admittedly about to start changing modes), so a curved flow type is more favored. Plus, though the Euro tends to have a slight amplitude bias ...I am not sure that applies to Texas at D4 for one, but the GFS seems to have an equally opposing flat/progressive one...and applying those corrections in relative necessity and measure leaves more quotient in favor of better development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 32 minutes ago, ice1972 said: lol.....I said I'd give it two weeks.....I promise you if we don't get something rolling in here by the end of January the melt is coming......we've had what - 2 decent events? or is it 3? There was something pre Xmas that left some snow around albeit a bit meager and then of course Xmas day and then the blizzard.....only the blizzard really was anything to write home about and even that was blah compared to what I've gotten here in West Hartford over the years......getting into February with only 1 decent event is a fat phail.......that was a mini melt.....the major melt is getting primed Your memory isn't so good.....December 9th...7 inches. A few days after that a lil more. Xmas event on Xmas day. A lil on Dec 30th. The big one a week ago. The Brutal cold for two weeks. So I'm a little confused with your thoughts on it hasn't been all too good? It's been a really nice start in my opinion for sure. And with a Chance next week...it's been quite active and has delivered so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Cutter after storm? How’s that thaw looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That K. map doesn't make a lot of sense to me in the DCA to ORH axis... Given to the total evolution and the typical index finger parameters for determining p-type and amounts, that product is likely wrong. That is the quintessentially perfect KU storm in this Euro run. The wave being deep and over George where it's wind maxes arcs around the nadir of the trough, and then turns NNE astride the East Coast riding all the way up ...initially over top and then crossing the Gulf Stream ...closing off a mid level center some -4 or more SD: even a marginal lower thickness interval event entry results in prolific snow production. I suspect that K. product probably doesn't consider these a-priori and/or other very real factors, and just applies 850s to pwats or something... I dunno, but that's bullschit... You'd be talking 10+" Phillies southern 'burbs and probably double that at PVD in RI. The differences/reasons there in, for the Euro versus the less constructed appeals of the other guidance' is clear to me. There is a noted diffference in the mechanical wave space of the trough as it is descending through Canada and ...well, careening is more like it, and then ultimately starts turning E into the lower MV region D4 (96 hours). The Euro has more wave dynamics back through New Mexico/Texas, where contrasting, these other guidance unilaterally have noticeably less heights falls/wind velocities in the deep layer at that time. ... Thus, conserving what they must down stream, the Euro encounters (and this is key..) a lowering resistant/less compressed/ less pre-soaked velocity rich atmosphere over the SE US, and so there is a negative (eventual) rotation of the southern end of the trough (i.e., less shearing) and the rest is what it is... Not sure why the other models have less wave mechanics in the southern aspect of the L/W like that...but, I suspect it has to do with sampling/initialization. If one tracks the perturbation backward in time, they will find that it's not coming from the Pacific like normally these do.. .It's arrived over the Arctic domain, and is getting sent south by a flexed amplitude of EPO domain space way up there... The Euro just seems to either sample more mechanics strength, or corrects that way... but, it ends up with more power in the deep south. I annotated the chart at the beginning of this thread to help elucidate this stuff... Here's the thing... the Euro is said to need day 4 before it gets into its so-called wheelhouse. Is that the same everywhere? Because a unilateral application of that adage results in an important philosophical consideration there... The higher (or higher enough..) amplitude over Texas as this thing turns the corner there is DAY 4! Well ...aren't we to assume that is IN said wheelhouse? If so... then the other guidance would more likely be wrong ...because all the Euro does after that is rightfully conserves the additional wave mechanics on into D5-6-7. Unless that day 4 wheelhouse jargon is only applicable Worcester... I dunno. I guess ...let's get today's 12z run in with some consistency... if it shows even 75% of a similar complexion for that time frame...I'd argue away from the flatter appeals. Also, there are other more holistic arguments in favor of the Euro (not per se...but more development). For one, the PNA is quite positive (though admittedly about to start changing modes), so a curved flow type is more favored. Plus, though the Euro tends to have a slight amplitude bias ...I am not sure that applies to Texas at D4 for one, but the GFS seems to have an equally opposing flat/progressive one...and applying those corrections in relative necessity and measure leaves more quotient in favor of better development. Nice write up Tip. Hopefully in the 12Z suite the Euro persists and gets a little help from it's friends. It seems that the models have trouble with these set ups.....when the energy dives due south from the arctic and spawns a Miller B type storm somewhere on the east coast. I do seem to recall however, many times when the Euro advertised systems like this in the past and slowly lost it as the trough set up a bit further north each run. Nothing more than a hunch however. Let's see what 12Z can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Cutter after storm? How’s that thaw looking? Drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 11 hours ago, weathafella said: Always a big flag. I have always wondered why those numbers are of interest to you guys, esp so far out....and not just for this event...I have noticed in the past lots of interest in those mex numbers many days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 hour ago, ice1972 said: WOW - Words of Wisdom.......in response to Jerry.....Fella has come through in the past during my dark weenie melts...... Posting while under the influence of a head cold and Kuchera maps, I totally missed that context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: No, no, no. You have to start proclaiming a whiff from this one...you know the drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 hour ago, ice1972 said: WOW - Words of Wisdom.......in response to Jerry.....Fella has come through in the past during my dark weenie melts...... don't you have 30 inches so far this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 19 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: I have always wondered why those numbers are of interest to you guys, esp so far out....and not just for this event...I have noticed in the past lots of interest in those mex numbers many days out They're analogous to the CIPS guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 46 minutes ago, snowgeek said: Nice write up Tip. Hopefully in the 12Z suite the Euro persists and gets a little help from it's friends. It seems that the models have trouble with these set ups.....when the energy dives due south from the arctic and spawns a Miller B type storm somewhere on the east coast. I do seem to recall however, many times when the Euro advertised systems like this in the past and slowly lost it as the trough set up a bit further north each run. Nothing more than a hunch however. Let's see what 12Z can produce. if for entertainment alone or not ... the run people would probably like in this social media circle is that 06z NAVENSTEIN model... That's not a 'bomb' per se, but it makes up for it in duration ... ginormously! that would probably be about 30" for a few spots like Barre Falls to Tolland CT to White Plains NY. It starts out with a kind of weak TROWAL from a lead wave that it slowly morphs into a CCB shield taking some 36 hours to do it... (probably a TROWAL in there, too) slowly intensifying snow rate the whole way. At the end of the run...it has very cold mid level heights with saturated deep layer easterly anomalies running right into it... omg. jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Interesting changes in the GFS early on thru 12z Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Still looks meh on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Still looks meh on the GFS You sure? I'm sitting at 120hr and seeing a nice s/w rounding the trough. Progressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Interesting changes in the GFS early on thru 12z Tues. yeah...it's following the Euro's lead with more wave mechanics situated in the western TV region at hour 120 there... That's prroobably going to parlay well along the EC there - depending on one's point of view... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You sure? I'm sitting at 120hr and seeing a nice s/w rounding the trough. Progressive? I'm looking at the tues-weds threat, Now its being pushed out to Thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 One thing I have subtely noticed is a delay in the potential next week. What was Tues/Wed is not looking like late Wed/Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: I'm looking at the tues-weds threat. Bob is saying that it looks better ...the tues wed "threat" ... as to the contributing physics ... thru 120. and he right - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: One thing I have subtely noticed is a delay in the potential next week. What was Tues/Wed is not looking like late Wed/Thur. It is on the GFS, But its not on the 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Yeah, GFS looks beautiful right now. May not get there but I'm "digging" the 5h look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Who is drunk ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Sure thurs looks better, If your comparing it to the 06z run of the GFS, But that's not what this threat was the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: One thing I have subtely noticed is a delay in the potential next week. What was Tues/Wed is not looking like lat Wed/Thur. Teleconnector convergence was always fixed on the 17-18th time interval, regardless of any deterministic appeal...mass field shifts in the NAO, AO, EPO and PNA domains... quadrilicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Who is drunk ? I operate best when I get a few in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 it's got a much deep 500 mb level complexion at 130 hours...with a much stronger vmax in there... "slug" appeal, as it's turning into neutral. This run may not get folks to the visions they want, but it's a big positive trend... And I think based upon the facets/philosophies I outlined earlier, combining this result/run... I definitely would keep an eye on that event. The other aspect, I'm also noticing that everywhere the frequency of the hemisphere is slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Sure thurs looks better, If your comparing it to the 06z run of the GFS, But that's not what this threat was the last few days. It should have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Sure thurs looks better, If your comparing it to the 06z run of the GFS, But that's not what this threat was the last few days. Correct but there was never a concise signal for it. It's morphing into a later signal by a day or 2 I feel. Look at the MOS #s and I've seen them pushed out a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Isn’t the secondary a lot further south on this run. It ends up as decent low down near the NC coast. Earlier runs had this much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.