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January 16-18 Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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EPS and GEFS both close off at 500mb but are muted and not digging the ULL nearly as far South. Those means both look like coastal redevelopers that give us *something* with the best action being NE of our region on the GEFS but better on the EPS. Oddly, the GEPS says it's op counterpart is an outlier and is farther S with digging energy BUT never closes off an ULL not does it appear to go neg tilt. Surface reflection and precip maps on GEPS is a moderate hit signal via more of an inverted trough that extends well offshore and back thru central PA.

 

 

 

 

 

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12z EURO giving some of us some hope...
eu2.jpg.7083358f6d35e677c3be5020405519c1.jpg
GEFS show improvements at H5 but still dry-ish at the surface. GEPS improved as well.....still not as diggy as I would like overall but the look on guidance will work for us as a thump at the very least if things panned out verbatim right now. GEPS also nearly doubled mean 24 hr precip for the potential event to around .3-.5" qpf across SE PA. Awaiting EPS.....
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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z GEFS have more members farther S and W along the coast. Also bumped mean 24-hr qpf to .4" ish.

That's good to hear...that's .5+ total w/the over performer added on.

*Off topic but a bad acciden/fire at Norristown Rd/County line.  Firetrucks, ambulances and police galore. Pretty much in front of Rosemore shopping center...I got detoured all over the place.

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3 hours ago, hurricane1091 said:

No snow for awhile would be nice. Just had a foot surgery and can't even go out to enjoy the warm temps lol. Going to the surgery center at 5 AM after the ice storm was tough btw. No salt in the neighborhood, was all ice

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Glad you made it okay, but wait a minute! If you're laid up, think of all fun to be had with unlimited tracking, watching it snow, etc! And if you really need to go out in it, just walk in deep snow, assuming you have crutches, right? We'll try to help you with your morale!

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Glad you made it okay, but wait a minute! If you're laid up, think of all fun to be had with unlimited tracking, watching it snow, etc! And if you really need to go out in it, just walk in deep snow, assuming you have crutches, right? We'll try to help you with your morale!
Lol I've gotta head back to the doctor a couple times, it could get tough convincing someone to drive me during snow lol

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Guidance stepped away from the ULL idea digging into the OV from 24 hours ago BUT this period still bears watching and has decent potential. Looks like the trof isnt going to be as diggy but sharper as a clipper-type system swings thru on the 16th. Hate relying on an inverted trof for snow but we could see some light snows as a possibility from this feature. Models and ens are *trying* to develop something weaker off the middle coast behind the passage of the energy to our North. The Euro op looks to be the most aggressive and gives us accumulating snows Wednesday into Thursday. Ens are starting to pick up on this wave as well. Should be interesting to see how this unfolds. Plenty of energy coming thru with a decently amplified pattern and some transient ridging showing up in all the right teleconnection zones (PNA, NAO, AO, WAR). This period looks ripe for *something*, probably nothing huge, but models are having a challenge deciding what to do with the energy and waves along or off the coast.

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GEPS took a step towards this idea as well. You can see some members now showing lp at 0Z where 12Z had none. Also an area of weak uncertainty has shown up in that region now.

Again, the period (16th-18th) bears watching as there is room for improvement and the atmosphere wants to try and yield some light snow at the very least.5f832a1722de336f80f95886e83c1964.gif

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Agreed this period should be watched. Key time frame is toward Tuesday AM finishing up by evening. Models hinting at redevelopment Miller B type.....always bears watching especially for areas N and E of here. I can see clipper type snows accumulating (2" to 3") across much of the area and then the potential for more significant snows if the redevelopment occurs faster and further south. Higher snow amounts for North Jersey and of course New England. Also keep an eye for ZR a little quicker than modeled for NW Chester County and Northern Bucks and Montgomery counties for tomorrow morning. I would not be surprised to see WWA brought down into these zones later today by the NWS. 

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Agreed this period should be watched. Key time frame is toward Tuesday AM finishing up by evening. Models hinting at redevelopment Miller B type.....always bears watching especially for areas N and E of here. I can see clipper type snows accumulating (2" to 3") across much of the area and then the potential for more significant snows if the redevelopment occurs faster and further south. Higher snow amounts for North Jersey and of course New England. Also keep an eye for ZR a little quicker than modeled for NW Chester County and Northern Bucks and Montgomery counties for tomorrow morning. I would not be surprised to see WWA brought down into these zones later today by the NWS. 

Looking at guidance recently we have taken several steps back from the Tuesday clipper snows with the Miller B big ull dropping down idea going by the wayside. Looks more like if we can get that energy to swing thru and keep baroclinic zone relatively close to the mid atl coast we could get a wave to develop Wed late maybe giving some light stuff to the area. This has been the trend this year with the progressive ns.....models show deep digging energy 120hrs+ lead time then realize that the progressive flow wont allow for it and instead we get clippers to swing thru to our N (a couple have been South) then developing a wave on the trailing front. I dont see why this wont be any different now. Still could get some inverted trof flakes Tues but starting to lean towards Wed-Thurs as having the better potential. Reminds me of Dec 9 with similar setup and watched the wave off the coast and mean trof axis shift West as lead time lessened.

 

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Euro now has the Wed/Thurs system next week and is a decent hit. Looks like 4-6" SE PA. Getting in-line with the slower evolution of the trof axis and trailing wave pinching off developing a coastal lp. Still has some flakes with the fropa Tues as well fwiw. This period (16th-18th) definitely looks promising right now. 

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And like that, there were none...

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All guidance has increased snowfall for Tuesday with the fropa/inverted trof. General c-3" now. They have backed off the Thursday event. This period is a balancing act.....if we see snow Tues we *probably* miss out late Wed/Thurs. And vice-versa. Or we could get dusted by both. I don't read DT so I have no clue what his thoughts were. Regardless, the potential during this period hasn't changed. Im just glad you aren't asking me to change the dates again. ;-)
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All guidance has increased snowfall for Tuesday with the fropa/inverted trof. General c-3" now. They have backed off the Thursday event. This period is a balancing act.....if we see snow Tues we *probably* miss out late Wed/Thurs. And vice-versa. Or we could get dusted by both. I don't read DT so I have no clue what his thoughts were. Regardless, the potential during this period hasn't changed. Im just glad you aren't asking me to change the dates again. ;-)
Yeah yeah lol. I refuse to look at dt either. He sickens me

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