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January 14-15th Clipper System


HillsdaleMIWeather

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7 hours ago, mimillman said:

Dude you've been whining this whole time. And what, you're telling me now it's suddenly not okay to compare how your region is doing vs. your seasonal average? Especially relative to others? On a weather forum? 

Chicago and MKE have had a terrible season, objectively speaking. If you love winter, you're allowed to be displeased.

I'm not sure where I've whined at all. Chicago posters shouldn't cry.At least they didn't used too. Not sure why I would. Been pretty pleased with the last 2-3 weeks with plenty of cold and snow including a white Christmas. Than this week where everyone was saying it was going to be a disaster we ended up tracking a great storm. Yes, it didn't pan out for our area but that's part of the game. Fact is, we'd been spoiled over the past 10'years, and averages tend to even out. That said, this mornings AFD's still seem to be high on the clipper despite RC's take on the GFS. When I see Chicago Storm weigh in that's usually a positive. And if it doesn't pan out....so be it.

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I'm not sure where I've whined at all. Chicago posters shouldn't cry.At least they didn't used too. Not sure why I would. Been pretty pleased with the last 2-3 weeks with plenty of cold and snow including a white Christmas. Than this week where everyone was saying it was going to be a disaster we ended up tracking a great storm. Yes, it didn't pan out for our area but that's part of the game. Fact is, we'd been spoiled over the past 10'years, and averages tend to even out. That said, this mornings AFD's still seem to be high on the clipper despite RC's take on the GFS. When I see Chicago Storm weigh in that's usually a positive. And if it doesn't pan out....so be it.
My take on the clipper is that it will snow but the surface low currently being forecast to track over or just north of us limits the ceiling of what we can get vs what the GFS had been showing for several runs until 18z yesterday and 00z last night. Was hoping for a solid 3-5/3-6 type of event but most recent trends make a 1-2/1-3" snowfall more likely for northern IL.

The NAM is just getting into range and shows a fairly sharp cutoff to the snow south of I-80. Need the surface low track to not trend much farther north to feel good about locking in 1-3" and to come back south to what GFS had been showing to get into advisory snowfall type range. This doesn't include possibility of lake effect/lake enhancement coming back in on Tuesday.

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Euro blows this clipper up into a big snowstorm for the northeast US.

Models really aren't showing it, but I'm wondering if there may be some decent snow shower/squall action behind the departing clipper during the day on Monday.  Very cold pocket aloft will be moving in and hopefully some steep lapse rates could get something going.

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

My take on the clipper is that it will snow but the surface low currently being forecast to track over or just north of us limits the ceiling of what we can get vs what the GFS had been showing for several runs until 18z yesterday and 00z last night. Was hoping for a solid 3-5/3-6 type of event but most recent trends make a 1-2/1-3" snowfall more likely for northern IL.

The NAM is just getting into range and shows a fairly sharp cutoff to the snow south of I-80. Need the surface low track to not trend much farther north to feel good about locking in 1-3" and to come back south to what GFS had been showing to get into advisory snowfall type range. This doesn't include possibility of lake effect/lake enhancement coming back in on Tuesday.

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Thanks for the input. In the end to get analysis such as yours is what makes the board so entertaining, educational and vital. Believe me, I know these set ups if they go right are a beautiful thing for our area. Clipper rides down just to our south and west, and than stalls off to our east for a bit spinning pieces of energy aided by lake enhancement. Could make some fast in roads on our deficit fast. But...alas:maprain:

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro blows this clipper up into a big snowstorm for the northeast US.

Models really aren't showing it, but I'm wondering if there may be some decent snow shower/squall action behind the departing clipper during the day on Monday.  Very cold pocket aloft will be moving in and hopefully some steep lapse rates could get something going.

What's new? <_< Ugh! 

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Of course this thing stays mainly north and then magically gives the NE another storm. Can we ever catch a break in Central Indiana, Illinois, Southern Wisconsin. This last storm grazing Indy with the heavier snow was really a kick in the gut lol. Still almost 3 years since the Indy area has seen a winter storm warning

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Megan Dodson's thoughts on lower ratios from her afternoon discussion:

Soundings suggest snow ratios initially around 12-15:1, rising to 17-20:1 by the late 
afternoon/evening hours. The prime DGZ initially looks to be located  below 10Kft and 
the strongest/majority of the omega is above the DGZ. This would favor more of a 
12-15:1 ratio versus the consensus blend's 20:1 (which has been overdone several times 
this season). Lowered the snow ratios to more what I would expect, as outlined above. 
This gives us around 1-3" of snow accumulation Monday.
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4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro came in drier as well.  Think I may adjust my earlier call from 2" down to 0.8-1.5".  Pretty disappointing considering the potential this thing had a few days ago.  

Local NWS AFD's still riding 1-4 "'amounts over a fairly general wide area. Probably going to a Christmas Eve repeat around these parts.

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Local NWS AFD's still riding 1-4 "'amounts over a fairly general wide area. Probably going to a Christmas Eve repeat around these parts.
I continue to think that 1-3" remains a very reasonable call for northern IL and northwest IN for this event. Duration looks decent but flake size will likely be an issue again. Clicking through soundings over northeast IL, from whenever the snow starts in the evening (shouldn't have too much difficulty saturating) through about 08z or 09z, much of the lift is located above the DGZ. From 08z or 09z through or a few hours beyond 12z, there's better co-location of decent but not spectacular lift within the DGZ.

For these reasons, I'd lean lower than the Kuchera ratios for an average ratio, but a bit higher than 10:1, somewhere in 12-13:1 range is probably okay. With consensus QPF per the latest guidance roughly in the 0.08 to 0.25 range, that would put us in the ballpark of 1-3". To feel better about coming in with a 2-4" range, we'd want to see better agreement on averaging 0.2"+ qpf for the area and/or a trend toward better co-location of omega within the DGZ for more hours.

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10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:



For these reasons, I'd lean lower than the Kuchera ratios for an average ratio, but a bit higher than 10:1, somewhere in 12-13:1 range is probably okay. With consensus QPF per the latest guidance roughly in the 0.08 to 0.25 range, that would put us in the ballpark of 1-3". To feel better about coming in with a 2-4" range, we'd want to see better agreement on averaging 0.2"+ qpf for the area and/or a trend toward better co-location of omega within the DGZ for more hours.

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Good stuff. You know it's a tough winter when you can only count on 12:1 ratios in this type of air mass. Would love to hear your take on how the last two weeks of January play out in the medium range thread. A lot of consternation that we are headed for an extended period of mild dry weather in the heart of winter.

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