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1-13-18 Snow/Rain/Ice storm


UlsterCountySnowZ

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Models are converging on a slightly cooler solution, especially for the interior Hudson Valley, NNJ, NEPA, and NWCT... heavy icing looks possible around and north of 84, with a few days left, something to watch for is, colder press and easterly track..

 

also the unspoken story especially for areas seeing rain will be single digit temperatures possible by Sunday morning, after the storm has passed, flash freeze and dangerous conditions should be in store 

62F4E028-8F60-4891-ABBF-8502450602C9.jpeg

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17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Models are converging on a slightly cooler solution, especially for the interior Hudson Valley, NNJ, NEPA, and NWCT... heavy icing looks possible around and north of 84, with a few days left, something to watch for is, colder press and easterly track..

 

also the unspoken story especially for areas seeing rain will be single digit temperatures possible by Sunday morning, after the storm has passed, flash freeze and dangerous conditions should be in store 

62F4E028-8F60-4891-ABBF-8502450602C9.jpeg

Might be a fun ride to the West Point hockey game Saturday nite.

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4 minutes ago, Animal said:

Mt Holly afternoon afd really was hammering a change to snow & sleet I 80 north Friday night into Saturday,

One glance at that high pressure days ago on modeling told me the story with this one. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see this gradient pattern continue the next few weeks where we see many battleground events like this.

I believe this event settles in to the typical interior N and W locations with the possibility of a significant mixed bag event on their hands.

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25 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

 

Absolutely would be, I explained to him the other day that sim reflectivity does not show mix, simply frozen/non frozen.

I don’t know why he would think that’s snow. The mid level lows are way, way to our west at that point and aloft is still torched

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52 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Should produce some good convection the next 24 hours as the warm front pushes through, at least for January standards.

The secondary part of the system Friday night looks to be a real quick mover as the surface low develops over SE PA and we quickly dry slot.

Far North and West have the best shot at minor to moderate icing potential. For the I95 corridor however yes, the precip shuts down pretty quickly as drier cooler air funnels in pretty steadfastly.

In the meantime, there is potential for some convective activity in NJ. Mainly high winds and heavy downpours look to be the impacts however one can not rule out some stronger activity further south.

The latest GFS shows increased PWATS of over 1.5in. It has backed off the timing of bulk shear with the repositioning of the upper schematics recently, though it has increased dewpoints to near 60• for most of NJ. It also has maintained at least a modest if not strong low level jet. 

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

thunder potential looks more interesting than a few measly sleet pellets

image.thumb.png.dd112a5fcc80dca333ba12134a7d0995.png

Yup fully agree.

Also don’t sleep on some pretty gusty CAA winds on the backside as the atmosphere looks to become well mixed.

Certainly also in the warm sector as the modest low level jet roars overhead(we will see what can mix down) but oftentimes this time of year we get our best winds in the drier/colder side of systems and that may in fact be the case here.

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