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ORH_wxman

January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Wish you would be subjective and offer insight like other mets on here instead of being married to one idea and unwilling to see other solutions 

Seems like he went out on a limb and made a call. Are you saying you’d like a probabilistic forecast?

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wish you would be subjective and offer insight like other mets on here instead of being married to one idea and unwilling to see other solutions 

What is there exactly to discuss? How many times can you talk about the high to the north, PV, srn s/w etc.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wish you would be subjective and offer insight like other mets on here instead of being married to one idea and unwilling to see other solutions 

Friday is a torch. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

Seems like he went out on a limb and made a call. Are you saying you’d like a probabilistic forecast?

He called for 60 and rain for all except S Coast.  That’s all we saw. He might be right and if he is we’ll cap tip 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Seems like he went out on a limb and made a call. Are you saying you’d like a probabilistic forecast?

There is a much higher probability of ORH colder than Tolland.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

He called for 60 and rain for all except S Coast.  That’s all we saw. He might be right and if he is we’ll cap tip 

Friday furnace. Lock that b*tch in.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

He called for 60 and rain for all except S Coast.  That’s all we saw. He might be right and if he is we’ll cap tip 

Maybe you will only hit 58F on Friday. Maybe only 98% of your snow will melt instead of 99%?

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Blast some Mariah Carey with the windows down Friday?

Even though I try, I can’t, let go

Cuz sixty one degrees, melts all, my snow

And every night I see, pack in, my dreams

Where did it go? I can’t, let go

  • Haha 5

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1 minute ago, amarshall said:

Big ski implications this weekend.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah it would be great to trend this south...not just for sickos like me who like a good ice event (though I'll prob pass on another 2008)....but it would mean much more sleet/snow for the ski areas which would be way better than ice.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Why do you think the snow going away bothers me?

Prob because you always mention how angry you get when it melts.

 

I hate it too...but we're gonna get torched on Friday. Hopefully we rebuild it back up soon.

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11 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Big ski implications this weekend.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

Not much we can do about it, free place to stay so we are heading north to MWV regardless of forecast.  I suspect I will spend some of my lift ticket $ at the Moat Pub & Brewery and be fine with it. Hopefully this trends better and we get the kids and adults up on he slopes at least one day. 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why do you think the snow going away bothers me?

I think you will be able to tolerate Friday because we’re all in on the torch together. Saturday could be a strain on your emotions if the sfc front gets hung up between you and ORH. Those are the days where I kinda feel for you.

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some old school thoughts but I think they still apply ...or should -

the wave mechanics that ultimately end up as this southern wave is not the quasi-closed low now entering over southern CA, it is actually a following wave that rockets off the Pacific ...enters the Pac NW and dives in..

There is probably the standard sampling issue with that ... but what I'm interested in is that the GEF's PNA is rapidly rising over the weekend, reaching a peak Sunday or Monday.  There's a lot of moving parts in that entire evolution, N-S E and W... Should the "pop back" ridge response amp slightly more, than the wave ends up deeper coming east. Plus, the whole handling of lower tropospheric flow construct over S-SE Canada is always a risky prop..  You have two pretty classical sources of uncertainty and error proneness there:  one being the PNA modality, the other being the polar high pressure N.

Bottom line, I still suggest there is a broader canvas of possibilities with that. Those two factors above are a bit different than a wave coming east in a stable/static mode of these mass fields. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why do you think the snow going away bothers me?

Because it does bother you (and most of us) Otherwise you would not be trying so hard to go against most major guidence, which, unfortunately has all of CT torching.

It sucks and no one likes to see it but just pull the shades and curl up in a corner in the basement and wait it out.

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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

some old school thoughts but I think they still apply ...or should -

the wave mechanics that ultimately end up as this southern wave is not the quasi-closed low now entering over southern CA, it is actually a following wave that rockets off the Pacific ...enters the Pac NW and dives in..

There is probably the standard sampling issue with that ... but what I'm interested in is that the GEF's PNA is rapidly rising over the weekend, reaching a peak Sunday or Monday.  There's a lot of moving parts in that entire evolution, N-S E and W... Should the "pop back" ridge response amp slightly more, than the wave ends up deeper coming east. Plus, the whole handling of lower tropospheric flow construct over S-SE Canada is always a risky prop..  You have two pretty classical sources of uncertainty and error proneness there:  one being the PNA modality, the other being the polar high pressure N.

Bottom line, I still suggest there is a broader canvas of possibilities with that. Those two factors above are a bit different than a wave coming east in a stable/static mode of these mass fields. 

The storybook is far from being finished with this one. One of the more difficult storms of the winter to forecast 

  • Haha 1

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36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice nuke on the follow up.

Yea. And It’s not that bad of an overall look either. Chances of cutters followed by fupas exist but it’s not a massive dry EC ridge either. I’m fine with the chances down the pipeline.

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Just saw on tropical tidbits they got a new model in the global section called ICON... Experimental?  Seems cold for the second wave and has the low south of us

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3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Just saw on tropical tidbits they got a new model in the global section called ICON... Experimental?  Seems cold for the second wave and has the low south of us

Non hydrostatic German Model higher resolution than GFS

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