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ORH_wxman

January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

At this distance looks like rain turning to serious (but not catastrophic) ice for this area.

Not yet anyways.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man what a torch up here on the NAM on Friday. That would be awesome.

Breath it in!! Chickens rejoice!

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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We analog 

 

 

There's actually a lot of similarities between the December 2008 evolution and this one. The difference though is this one (at least right now) is not getting that boundary quite as far southeast. But it def means that a place like CNE or NNE could be vulnerable to monster ice accretion. There's a lot of moisture from the gulf streaming up just like that event did.

I remember the day before that ice storm we hit like 57 or 58 in ORH. Total torch like this one and then the boundary sagged south that night and we slowly drained all day on Thursday as the misture started streaming in. Started off as rain in the 30s and then went to ZR. This may be similar for someone...prob north of SNE this time.

 

 

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Not yet anyways.

I've enjoyed the 20th anniversary specials on the tube, but would NOT wish to celebrate with a repeat.  And the temp contrast map posted by backedge on the models forum looked a lot like Jan 1998, though 50 miles or so north.  NYC had 60s RA for that one while Allagash was singles/teens with 20"+ of 8:1 snow.

Edit:  I think that temp map was actually posted by Baroclinic Zone, and I'm unable to find it, or my response.  Might it have been from a pay site and thus been removed by the mods?

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I've enjoyed the 20th anniversary specials on the tube, but would NOT wish to celebrate with a repeat.  And the temp contrast map posted by backedge on the models forum looked a lot like Jan 1998, though 50 miles or so north.  NYC had 60s RA for that one while Allagash was singles/teens with 20"+ of 8:1 snow.

Yes, Watched a ll three myself, An no, We can do without another 1998 repeat although this would be a much shorter duration.

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Watched a ll three myself, An no, We can do without another 1998 repeat although this would be a much shorter duration.

Shorter accretion time, but followed by several days well below freezing while most of 1998's ice fell off during the 2 days after accretion had finished.  We'd have to await sublimation or fracture/fall if it's both cold and windy.  That's how we got rid of the much lesser coating from 12/23/17.

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

There's actually a lot of similarities between the December 2008 evolution and this one. The difference though is this one (at least right now) is not getting that boundary quite as far southeast. But it def means that a place like CNE or NNE could be vulnerable to monster ice accretion. There's a lot of moisture from the gulf streaming up just like that event did.

I remember the day before that ice storm we hit like 57 or 58 in ORH. Total torch like this one and then the boundary sagged south that night and we slowly drained all day on Thursday as the misture started streaming in. Started off as rain in the 30s and then went to ZR. This may be similar for someone...prob north of SNE this time.

 

 

To offset that though .. we have antecedent cold, deep snowpack much farther south and west than us(none that year anywhere) and we’re a month later into winter. I wouldn’t be ruling anything out yet, including that we have to get into the 50’s. 12 tomorrow is make or break 

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Shorter accretion time, but followed by several days well below freezing while most of 1998's ice fell off during the 2 days after accretion had finished.  We'd have to await sublimation or fracture/fall if it's both cold and windy.  That's how we got rid of the much lesser coating from 12/23/17.

Yeah, Nothing falling off after with those progged temps

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

To offset that though .. we have antecedent cold, deep snowpack much farther south and west than us(none that year anywhere) and we’re a month later into winter. I wouldn’t be ruling anything out yet, including that we have to get into the 50’s. 12 tomorrow is make or break 

The deeper snowpack and climo will only help very marginally...it won't force the upper air to comply. It can help accelerate the ageostrphic drain if the boundary can setup south of us...it's more of a feedback as Tip likes to harp on. Once you actually get that boundary south of us, then the snowpack helps accelerate the cold drain...but remember that the snow pack is going to take a monster beating before that anyway.

95% of this will depend on the upper air evolution.

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What are friday max temps looking like , 60? Models seem to usually be low

60 is a rather high likelyhood away from the south coast.

 

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The deeper snowpack and climo will only help very marginally...it won't force the upper air to comply. It can help accelerate the ageostrphic drain if the boundary can setup south of us...it's more of a feedback as Tip likes to harp on. Once you actually get that boundary south of us, then the snowpack helps accelerate the cold drain...but remember that the snow pack is going to take a monster beating before that anyway.

95% of this will depend on the upper air evolution.

Snowpack is akin to SSTs.....it doesn't dictate the weather as SSTs do not lead the pattern....they both reinforce an already supportive and established pattern.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

60 is a rather high likelyhood away from the south coast.

 

Only thing that could keep it lower is the showers/clouds around limiting mixing. Even if you only mix up to 925 it's virtually a lock

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3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Only thing that could keep it lower is the showers/clouds around limiting mixing. Even if you only mix up to 925 it's virtually a lock

Yeah in that case it could be 55, but either way..furnace.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We know where this is heading. 31 and ZR for ORH. 55 and cosmos in Tolland.

Wish you would be subjective and offer insight like other mets on here instead of being married to one idea and unwilling to see other solutions 

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