January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

[CoastalWx]

That's a rather weird look on the GFS. Kind of snowy, but a rather unusual look.

[jbenedet]

Didn't see H5 improvements translate to surface on GFS between 6z and 12z Sat. I could see our SLP track further southeast from the Del Marva to 100 miles south of MTK LI...based on 250 mb jet and H5 look. Everything in terms of qpf and SLP track still looks too far northwest imo...

Keep dampening that lead wave....

Edit: Can actually see a second surface low over Central VA, at hr 42. I think that's closer to where our main surface low should be.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a rather weird look on the GFS. Kind of snowy, but a rather unusual look.

very.

[scoob40]

Could be one of Dendrite's patented 06Z AM cheap highs at least here on Saturday. Likely not at his place though.

[Typhoon Tip]

for what it's not worth ... the JMA looked cold with ice N of a Tolland-PVD or so estimate...

[jbenedet]

12z Gefs with slight improvements all around...GFS Op has some SE trending to do, imo.

[jbenedet]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

for what it's not worth ... the JMA looked cold with ice N of a Tolland-PVD or so estimate...

Certainly not the best ally--albeit significantly better than the JMA--the 6z NAVGEM SLP track actually makes the most sense to me based on current guidance.

Curious to see if it stands pat at 12z...

[Damage In Tolland]

Magn’ This ?

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

A winter thread and 1 post between 1240 and 1:20, usually not a good thing.

Thankfully that 1 post is from the Rev. In Rev we trust. He hath thy strength to move models with the mind. 

[dendrite]

It's overlapping the previous 6hr QPF with the ptype at that point. Congrats on a freezing sprinkle.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It's overlapping the previous 6hr QPF with the ptype at that point. Congrats on a freezing sprinkle.

Don’t think so 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Magn’ This ?

 

Yea. I like where we sit right now at 48 hr. Good for another 50-100 miles further SE with SLP track. Low also tracks ENE (not NNE/NE) toward NS so we see a lot of the backside convection before she’s out.

 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's overlapping the previous 6hr QPF with the ptype at that point. Congrats on a freezing sprinkle.

Really? That’s a former vet met from the NYC subforum (I think). Would be uncharacteristic of him...

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Really? That’s a former vet met from the NYC subforum (I think). Would be uncharacteristic of him...

Yeah...John moderated here for years. I don't totally trust the dominant ptype algorithm there. It has the dom ptype ZR/R line on the Merrimack Valley in S NH at 48hr yet 2m temps at CON/MHT/ASH around 35-36F. I'm not sure how it could be mostly ZR over the previous 6 hours in that scenario.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. I like where we sit right now at 48 hr. Good for another 50-100 miles further SE with SLP track. Low also tracks ENE (not NNE/NE) toward NS so we see a lot of the backside convection before she’s out.

 

Ill be in the southern greens then northern adirondacks. So, thank you sir may I have another. 

Any further SE we start to loose QPF

[jbenedet]

34 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ill be in the southern greens then northern adirondacks. So, thank you sir may I have another. 

Any further SE we start to loose QPF

I see what you're saying but not invariably. In my view if the southern stream shortwave fizzles faster, the trailing shortwave can amplify further and faster, and can begin doing so further to the south/east. Instead of simply riding the thermal gradient, a deeper system would throw more convection back to the NW despite the track further south/east. The nothern stream still shunts it all east before it can get north of 40N.

You can already see this trend somewhat in guidance, especially verus 12z Wed. The trailing shortwave dug further south, helping to shift the longwave trough axis further south, so our wave was deeper but still rounds the bend colder and further east.

[Ginx snewx]

Congrats CT Blizz

[ORH_wxman]

Hell of a flash freeze on the 18z NAM.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats CT Blizz

Let’s knock some down 

[CarverWX]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hell of a flash freeze on the 18z NAM.

Does that include down here to?

 

 

[OceanStWx]

23 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ping fest for some? Or is it too warm aloft?

We were just talking about that here, how this could end up more frozen (sleet) than freezing for our forecast area. It's why we're hanging onto the watch for a little bit until pulling the trigger on headlines.

[OceanStWx]

The cold air is getting significantly deep on most guidance, very quickly. So rather than staying with a dominant ptype, you sort of run the gamut over a short period of time. At the same time the warmth aloft is erased rather quickly on the north side.

Now the question is do we believe that? I'm more willing to believe a deep, cold layer developing north of the mountains. But if it comes in shallow south of the mountains that could create issues.

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

Does that include down here to?

 

 

Yeah it did actually.

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...John moderated here for years. I don't totally trust the dominant ptype algorithm there. It has the dom ptype ZR/R line on the Merrimack Valley in S NH at 48hr yet 2m temps at CON/MHT/ASH around 35-36F. I'm not sure how it could be mostly ZR over the previous 6 hours in that scenario.

Color me skeptical too. We don't really even know what dominant means there. Most hours, most QPF? 

[Damage In Tolland]

That cold means business. Gonna come in faster and stronger than folks are planning.  Icing is a big big concern . Not just flash freeze. There will be some shocked posts judging from some of the people in here last few days 

[Ginx snewx]

We vanquish

[Lava Rock]

50 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The cold air is getting significantly deep on most guidance, very quickly. So rather than staying with a dominant ptype, you sort of run the gamut over a short period of time. At the same time the warmth aloft is erased rather quickly on the north side.

Now the question is do we believe that? I'm more willing to believe a deep, cold layer developing north of the mountains. But if it comes in shallow south of the mountains that could create issues.

get rid of the rain tomorrow and i'll be happy

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Not loving the track on the nam or gfs

A nw tickle from earlier tracks and precipitation heading out faster.

Cuts across SNE with cold holding out a tad longer for rte 2.

This is the trend i saw today on those 2 , no idea what UKIE,  Euro were doing but 35f (temps) in concord nh at 12z sounds like crap

So we see freezing drizzle and cold air 

Whoop

Need this to trend over s coast

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not sure what the appeal is for most of SNE....pretty standard heavy, rainy thaw, followed by frontal passage and flash freeze.

No icing of any consequence outside of n ORH co and the Berkshires...even that is dicey.

Travel hazards will come from flash freeze.

 

I know the usual suspects are about to besiege me with various snapshots of model output, but it just isn't happening imo.

Love to be wrong-

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure what the appeal is for most of SNE....pretty standard heavy, rainy thaw, followed by frontal passage and flash freeze.

no icing of any consequence outside of n ORH co and the Berkshires and even that is dicey.

Don’t tell Kevin