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January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kinda of a squeeze play. Best upper level dynamics out west into W NY and the redeveloping low level centers to our SE.

Yea, I still think there's an unusually high amount of uncertainty with this. That trailing southern stream shortwave is a huge contributor in my mind. If that wave takes precedence early the whole "squeeze play" works out. If not, much of the qpf comes in as wet, excluding VT, NNH and ME.

Based on the H5 look around 6z Sat, I could see the whole southern stream wave amplification being further southeast, associated with the trailing wave, but need guidance to buy in on that...

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Any thoughts on severity of flash freeze? I’d think based on the NAM that’s a really ugly look.

Great pickup on the 94 analogy, wicked cold snap to 2 days of 40's and 50's with almost 2 inches of rain, interestingly COOP shows 14 inches of depth went down to 7

1994-01-27 19 -8 5.5 -20.2 59 0 T 0.1 14
1994-01-28 54 18 36.0 10.2 29 0 1.80 0.6 8
1994-01-29 47 27 37.0 11.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 7
1994-01-30 30 17 23.5 -2.5 41 0 0.00 0.0 7
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

The excessive rainfall, snowmelt, and ice jams on January 29, 1994, combined to produce floods and flash floods along small rivers and streams throughout Connecticut. The Yantic River (fig. 19) reached a flood stage of 8 feet at Norwich (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1994) during the early evening of January 28 and continued to rise to 13 feet in the early morning hours of January 29. The Pomperaug River rose to 4 to 6 feet over bankfull in Southbury (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1994) causing streets to be closed and a number of people to be evacuated from their homes. Property damage was reported. An ice jam against a bridge on the Shetucket River in Baltic (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1994) resulted in a flash flood when water levels rose 6 feet in a matter of minutes, flooding at least 75 homes and threatening others. A 2.5-mile ice jam was reported on the Shetucket River.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Great pickup on the 94 analogy, wicked cold snap to 2 days of 40's and 50's with almost 2 inches of rain, interestingly COOP shows 14 inches of depth went down to 7

1994-01-27 19 -8 5.5 -20.2 59 0 T 0.1 14
1994-01-28 54 18 36.0 10.2 29 0 1.80 0.6 8
1994-01-29 47 27 37.0 11.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 7
1994-01-30 30 17 23.5 -2.5 41 0 0.00 0.0 7

That pack had meat to it. This is just Ron Washington straight coke 

nmTcGLV.jpg

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Great pickup on the 94 analogy, wicked cold snap to 2 days of 40's and 50's with almost 2 inches of rain, interestingly COOP shows 14 inches of depth went down to 7

1994-01-27 19 -8 5.5 -20.2 59 0 T 0.1 14
1994-01-28 54 18 36.0 10.2 29 0 1.80 0.6 8
1994-01-29 47 27 37.0 11.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 7
1994-01-30 30 17 23.5 -2.5 41 0 0.00 0.0 7

That was a relatively brief warm sector. This will be warmer, longer, and higher dews.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Any thoughts on severity of flash freeze? I’d think based on the NAM that’s a really ugly look.

Euro looks ugly too, though not quite as bad as the NAM...it's def turning more into a sharp FROPA type thing, but since LL moisture is hanging back, we flash freeze instead of really dry out. We'll see if that holds...if we keep speeding up the wave, then we may end up drying out a bit...but on the flip side, if things slow back down, then it could be a lot worse.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looking at the 3KM NAM soundings, the dews dry out right as the cold comes in. I could see that helping, but there is so much water around so any run off, puddles etc are freezing quick. There also appears enough of a moist layer aloft to produce FZDZ?

nothing worse than when the moist layer is aloft rather than at the surface......

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Yeah that 1994 is one of my fondest memories for short duration, jolt changeability ... 

We dawned the morning of that day with 9 F up on the monitor up there at UML's weather lab. I was there early for some reason.. like dawn, and the air out of window had that faux blue tint you get in gelid ends of the day. There was a dusting of snow as non-committed flits were falling in the street lamp as I scurried across campus.  I was aware of the impending warm up/forecast, but still young and naive enough to believe it had to be wrong. 

So, 11:30 am rolls around and I glance up at the monitor, and it's popped to 19F. Still, the sky was slate gray out of window, and there was that kind of haze like it wanted to be snowing 1/4" visibility, but was actually doing nothing. Flits of grains and random needles continued to pretend like a winter storm was coming. 

Circa 1 PM, pile back from lunch for Dynamics I, and it's 23F.  A little burst of light snow was taking place.. I was impressed that it recovered 9 to 23 in just those 5 hours or so. So Dynamics class was actually in the Lab that day, and when it wrapped up an hour later, I stepped to espy the monitor; it was incredibly 30!   I'm like...whaaaa - 

The light snow was then freezing rain.  It actually start to glaze noticeably between 2 and 5 PM, such that as Smith Hall cafe opened for dinner, there was a little more than 1/4" accretion. I also noticed just before we lost the daylight entirely, the slate look to the sky had patterned into parallel streets of fast motion.  While in the cafeteria up to elbows in meatloaf capable of triggering migraines in those who suffer allergies to Industrial Food Complex processing America ... I heard a rustling sound, and when I looked, the shrubbery outside the window was rubbing and flopping against the panes.  At some point between 5 and 5:45 or so PM, we went from 31 to about 50 or so F.  

It actually kept rising... I'm not sure how far it did, but I wanna say 60 ... and, the wind howled ...circa 10 PM.  I remember plumes and shrouds of cold steam rollin' off snow piles. Weird actually.. It's the one time that snow banks look like they are smoldering.  Interesting. 

The next morning it was 32 F ... surgically, the snow pack was all but entirely decimated, leaving mainly just the piles.  It was a huge lesson in hydrostatics... If you ain't got the mass, you WILL TURN THE TEMPERATURE AROUND. As it were, the synoptic charts that day featured a Buffalo transit/cutter.  There was utterly, zip high pressure leading the cool sector above the warm front. All that cold was just radiational cooling over a snow pack in calm air, but the pressure layout showed streamlined, zero resistant flow right across the warm boundary ... utterly naked and powerless to stop the warm erosion as those 50mph gusts hammered N along the EC that day. Just a matter of time... In fact, I don't think I've seen a fire-hose correction of that caliber since.

The opposite is also true though... Back in those days...I lost track how many times in April, NSSL had us in a slight ... with slate gray skies at 39 F mid morning, and flags visibly waving if not wobbling from the breeze actually physically moving SW into the region.  It was then with BD fronts that I learned the hard way, if there is ANY ...as in 0.1 MPH motion, you ain't warm sectoring in eastern Massachusetts that day.  I have seen that tenet fail maybe... twice under rare fluid dynamic circumstances over the last 20 years. Otherwise, bustorama   

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