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January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I expect it to mostly be gone but with the cold front thru near or prior to midnite and icing by morning.. we may be able to salvage a bit . But 95% will be gone 

95% gone in your hood? We're pretty similar in terms of climo and snow cover generally, but I still expect 3 or 4 inches of dense mashed potatoes for mby, banks will remain. I just did a core and we have about 12" of snow with about 2" of water content, you?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MarkO said:

95% gone in your hood? We're pretty similar in terms of climo and snow cover generally, but I still expect 3 or 4 inches of dense mashed potatoes for mby, banks will remain. I just did a core and we have about 12" of snow with about 2" of water content, you?

I have 12-13” Otg. It’s all powder . With wind and dews in the 50’s and light rain (under an inch) except for Se Mass, it doesn’t stand much chance . Unless we can get that front thru late Fri afternoon I just see most of it vanishing quickly 

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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

The snow was deeper and deeper the more east you went, I had a decent pack but nothing like the Boston area. I hope to see another month like that in my lifetime with the wealth spread more west next time.

Ya I looked it up briefly and I do remember now the east thing......we still were above average for the season with 60+ inches (BDL I think) but we got there with nickel and dimes and one maybe two good storms.......nothing memorable......I prefer large events (18+) plus some nickel and dimes to maintain pack...getting 100+ inches in a season is meh if it comes over a long period of time with sub 6" storms...I would take less over the year if it meant larger events with deeper pack.....the deeper the better but I know I am in SNE not Lake Tahoe - which is why I love deep pack.....I have to remind myself of that sometimes

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have 12-13” Otg. It’s all powder . With wind and dews in the 50’s and light rain (under an inch) except for Se Mass, it doesn’t stand much chance . Unless we can get that front thru late Fri afternoon I just see most of it vanishing quickly 

Yeah, Friday is going to be painful, but just changed plans to head north this weekend and hopefully cash in on some snows Saturday and watch the game up there and ski Sunday, maybe Monday. But I still think I'll return to a white back yard, we'll see.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Yeah, Friday is going to be painful, but just changed plans to head north this weekend and hopefully cash in on some snows Saturday and watch the game up there and ski Sunday, maybe Monday. But I still think I'll return to a white back yard, we'll see.

Mark.   I have 16" on the ground.  The top 10" is powder from the bomb.  Then we have a solid ice layer from the December ice storm.  Then more glaciated under that.  I expect a hit then a few inches back on the end.  No chance of bare ground up here after all is said and done...

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Mark.   I have 16" on the ground.  The top 10" is powder from the bomb.  Then we have a solid ice layer from the December ice storm.  Then more glaciated under that.  I expect a hit then a few inches back on the end.  No chance of bare ground up here after all is said and done...

That's good to hear Gene. I haven't been up since the 30th, but I highly doubt the pack up there is less up than it is here (definitely more dense with that ice layer and previous snows). We'll take a hit up north, but it won't be anything like what we do in southern NE. My backyard in Lowell don't exactly establish a snow pack every year (I'd put that annual "pack" line just north of me from the hills of Worcester into the Nashua area). Some good years I'd argue we do, and I think this year is one. But this year we've known for a while there was going to be a steep gradient from SNE to NNE and that's the way it's played out so far.

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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MarkO said:

That's good to hear Gene. I haven't been up since the 30th, but I highly doubt the pack up there is less up than it is here (definitely more dense with that ice layer and previous snows). We'll take a hit up north, but it won't be anything like what we do in southern NE. My backyard in Lowell don't exactly establish a snow pack every year (I'd put that annual "pack" line just north of me from the hills of Worcester into the Nashua area). Some good years I'd argue we do, and I think this year is one. But this year we've known for a while there was going to be a steep gradient from SNE to NNE and that's the way it's played out so far.

Is there ever a year where there isn't a "gradient"?  I feel like that comes up every season.....somewhere there is going to be tears

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have 12-13” Otg. It’s all powder . With wind and dews in the 50’s and light rain (under an inch) except for Se Mass, it doesn’t stand much chance . Unless we can get that front thru late Fri afternoon I just see most of it vanishing quickly 

thats amazing you still have that much down to 5-6 inches here after peaking at just under a foot depth....1k helps on days like yesterday and today

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted

14-15 did produce above average snow back here but nothing crazy....there was one good storm of a foot where I am but all the constant moderate events did eventually build a 2 foot snow pack and there was some impressive cold...the poor snow growth in many of those events definitely helped with the pack building as we almost never had any high ratio stuff that winter

what happened 40 miles east of here was other worldly

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Posted

Looks like 00z NAM gonna come back in a little more amped again. Not a lot of consistency. SREFs that just came in were epically cold...some had a lot of sleet/snow down into SNE. Prob overdone but the spread in solutions continues to impress me. Even the usually amp-happy ARW was somewhat cold. 

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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Similar here, but a lot of it is all treble.  A decent glacier from pre-Christmas

Swiss cheese incoming.  The one downside to having kids and a dog is the run all over the snow and really compound the melt.

:lol:

I thought I was the only one that hated when the kids run all over the yard after the storm.......I didn't think it was possible anybody else would even be bothered by this.......

The other thing I hate......stray leaves on my pack......heat absorbers and are detrimental to pack retainage......I have been known to get out the leaf blower to get these insidious things off my pack.....

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

:lol:

I thought I was the only one that hated when the kids run all over the yard after the storm.......I didn't think it was possible anybody else would even be bothered by this.......

The other thing I hate......stray leaves on my pack......heat absorbers and are detrimental to pack retainage......I have been known to get out the leaf blower to get these insidious things off my pack.....

Ha, I just told my wife that same thing that the daycare kids are doing a good job of beating up the snowpack in the back yard...........:lol:

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like 00z NAM gonna come back in a little more amped again. Not a lot of consistency. SREFs that just came in were epically cold...some had a lot of sleet/snow down into SNE. Prob overdone but the spread in solutions continues to impress me. Even the usually amp-happy ARW was somewhat cold. 

The FOUS FRH numbers argue ice is into the interior by 12z Sat

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Whineminster

Whineminster

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Similar here, but a lot of it is all treble.  A decent glacier from pre-Christmas

Swiss cheese incoming.  The one downside to having kids and a dog is the run all over the snow and really compound the melt.

Ehhhh....I don't know, I think we end up with a 5" pack come Sunday morning.... There's a decent amount of pack right now and it's saturated...I haven't measured but it's over a foot. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Posted
Just now, Whineminster said:

Well he said keep an eye out, that's fake news then.  

Can't rule it out...but this run wasn't damaging and I haven't seen one yet. The lack of QPF after the front is the inhibiting factor. If we keep trending earlier passage of the frontal boundary though then maybe we can discuss more threatening ice scenarios. The southern stream has been trending a lot weaker as it ejects northeastward...so that is lessening the QPF with it but it's also helping the frontal boundary to move in sooner.

Then again, if we keep shoving this boundary southeast quickly, then sleet might be introduced into the precip too so that would also limit the ice.

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