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nrgjeff

Jan. 12-13, 2018 winter storm Nowcast and Forecast

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From my very limited knowledge is that the comma head beginning to form in Northeastern Texas?

Yes but it’s going from there to Indiana, it’s how W Tennessee is gonna get hammered.


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20 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

State offices in west/middle TN closed...so got the snow day...now just gotta hope for the snow. Even 40 miles west of Nash...may still be a little too far east with this one.

I hope the snow makes it to you buddy.  I've got about a half inch on the ground now, with a light layer of ice on the bottom.  The winds are really whipping though.  I will take some pics shortly and post them.  

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8 hours ago, John1122 said:

The cold front is approaching the Mississippi river. You guys out West, be safe and good luck. You should be in full winter storm mode by 3 or 4 am.

Thanks John,  I hope you and the rest of the forum get some snow today!  It looks like you were spot on with the transition happening around 3-4 am.

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18 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Sleet showers have at least whitened the ground here in Dickson Co. Now just gotta wait the dry slot out I guess. If snow prospects fade, I wonder if I should drive west on 40 or northwest up 24? Thoughts?

I'd be shocked if Dickson didn't get in on the action, but if need be road trip it on up to Murray!

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9 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I'd be shocked if Dickson didn't get in on the action, but if need be road trip it on up to Murray!

I'd agree, that area by Murray over to Paducah should get 5-8!!

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40 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Sleet showers have at least whitened the ground here in Dickson Co. Now just gotta wait the dry slot out I guess. If snow prospects fade, I wonder if I should drive west on 40 or northwest up 24? Thoughts?

I'd stay put, but that's just me.  Nothing like snow/sleet falling on your back yard.  HRRR looks like it's going to be a painful process of waiting for re-development of precip mid afternoon. Good luck and if you travel, be safe!

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I'd agree, that area by Murray over to Paducah should get 5-8!!

Murray is my hometown. Jealous they are getting this storm, but happy for family at the same time. Meanwhile in Knoxvegas, I’m preparing for nothing


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5 minutes ago, Greyhound said:


Murray is my hometown. Jealous they are getting this storm, but happy for family at the same time. Meanwhile in Knoxvegas, I’m preparing for nothing


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*internet high five*

In high school we used to cruise up to Murray from Paris to go bowling at the university after hitting the Western Sizzlin.  Good times!

Better get your broom ready to sweep the dusting off your porch.  :guitar:

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Just had a changeover to snow.  Huge flakes are falling now,  starting to come down heavier as well.  It's a beautiful scene!!  I will try to post pics but I'm having trouble due to the size of the pictures!  

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MRX Disco update for East TN:

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1035 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
It is a very difficult forecast today and tonight as there are
several competing factors that will determine p-type and amounts
this afternoon and evening. Obs show that a strong cold front is
on our western border, with a 30+ temperature drop from CHA to
MRC. This timing of the cold air is faster than previously
forecast. However, the most striking feature of note is the dry
slot across AL and Middle TN, and radar shows very little precip
in this area. The lack of deep moisture in the p-type transition
zone is good news for less FZRA/IP accumulation today.

The precip over West TN and nrn MS in the comma head is progged
by the models to track NE, skirting our northern Plateau and part
of SW VA. This area may maintain deeper moisture from the comma
head into tonight, and with temps aloft dropping below freezing
while this moisture moves in, there is concern that higher
elevations of Claiborne, Wise, and Lee counties could see some
icing/sleet between 8 pm and midnight the changeover to snow
after midnight. Thus, will expand the Advisory to include this
area. The area for potential ice accumulation will be in the
Advisory area for a brief period between 4 pm and 7 pm.

The update will lower PoPs to account for the dry slot while
lowering temperatures more quickly from west to east this
afternoon, with the transition from rain to sleet to snow a
little more quickly.

 

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Dyersburg had mostly sleet vs FZRA earlier this morning. Report from a plant. All snow now per correlation coefficient. West Tenn METARS are on crack but DYR itself is right.

HRRR seems to abandon the TROWAL too soon. Will go with 12Z NAM juicy from Mississippi to Middle Tenn. BNA will have a dry slot first, but I am fairly confident moderate snow later this afternoon. Kentucky is going to get slammed again later too. If that TROWAL holds together I'd go 3-4 inches BNA and 6+ Kentucky path. It is a true TROWAL. Oh yeah the Euro was right!

OK off soap box, because the GFS got the steep/deep CF and sleet right. Anyway the TROWAL is classic WAA (off the TROWAL) into the cold comma head. 12Z NAM shows it well, finally, on 850 with a hint at 700 mb. 06Z NAM already had it at 850 mb. Sending good snow vibes to you Jax. Please report early and often!

Moisture is slow to fade tonight so I still like some accumulating snow for the Tri Cities. No TROWAL there but favored upslope areas should get going. This is my favorite storm that missed Chattanooga. What a gem to watch!

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Waiting to hear a new report from AMZ. By the looks of the radar the last hour or so he should be getting pounded. Thanks for the update Jeff! 15Z Hrrr is really trying to tick me off with how it loses the precip down my way at hours 4 and 5. 

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MRX Disco update for East TN:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATEDNational Weather Service Morristown TN1035 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018.DISCUSSION...It is a very difficult forecast today and tonight as there areseveral competing factors that will determine p-type and amountsthis afternoon and evening. Obs show that a strong cold front ison our western border, with a 30+ temperature drop from CHA toMRC. This timing of the cold air is faster than previouslyforecast. However, the most striking feature of note is the dryslot across AL and Middle TN, and radar shows very little precipin this area. The lack of deep moisture in the p-type transitionzone is good news for less FZRA/IP accumulation today.The precip over West TN and nrn MS in the comma head is proggedby the models to track NE, skirting our northern Plateau and partof SW VA. This area may maintain deeper moisture from the commahead into tonight, and with temps aloft dropping below freezingwhile this moisture moves in, there is concern that higherelevations of Claiborne, Wise, and Lee counties could see someicing/sleet between 8 pm and midnight the changeover to snowafter midnight. Thus, will expand the Advisory to include thisarea. The area for potential ice accumulation will be in theAdvisory area for a brief period between 4 pm and 7 pm.The update will lower PoPs to account for the dry slot whilelowering temperatures more quickly from west to east thisafternoon, with the transition from rain to sleet to snow alittle more quickly.

 


So that’s interesting..... could a faster solution change where that last disturbance rides the front at? The one running across the apps.


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Here in the tri-cities area are we expecting to get any kind substantial amount of snow/ice around kingsport, Johnson City this evening/tonight? Thanks for all you guys work!

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7 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I believe this precip shield will hold ‘enough’ by time it reaches 65...but I worry it’s starting to fall apart already. Anyone see evidence of potential enhancement later this afternoon?

That’s my worry also, I think the plateaus only hope is maybe a dendadric growth zone, I think there is no hope for the valley of ET, with the exception being NE Tenn! 

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21 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I believe this precip shield will hold ‘enough’ by time it reaches 65...but I worry it’s starting to fall apart already. Anyone see evidence of potential enhancement later this afternoon?

You should see some moderate snow within an hour or so. I'd say it puts down at least an inch and maybe more. If the HRRR is to be believed there will be several hours of moderate snow along and north of 40 in Middle Tn.

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3 minutes ago, codgator said:

Man I wish - but the radar I am looking at is not making much eastward progress

The HRRR seems to redevelop it over the Nashville area. Very subjective though. I could see 2 inches falling over your area, I can't see much less than an inch though at worst but it's possible that the short range models are busting. It for sure wouldn't be the first time and the new HRRR for this hour did cut snow totals for every area by  decent amount vs last hour, but it's bounced around on those all morning. It's 16z run it had areas just west of Nashville getting 6 inches. 17z has those areas at 3-4, but 16z was a bump up because 15z had them at 3-4. Keep in mind that you can normally safely take 30 percent off clown maps most of the time.

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*internet high five*
In high school we used to cruise up to Murray from Paris to go bowling at the university after hitting the Western Sizzlin.  Good times!
Better get your broom ready to sweep the dusting off your porch.  :guitar:

Ha!! Western Sizzlin was my first job. An once we got our paycheck we would head to Paris to get liquor since Murray was dry!!!


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7 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

The #snowdome is back! (*sarcasm*). Disappointing day for a lot of people in middle TN; however, you gotta give props to NWS-Memphis & Nash for doing a great job overall. Yeah...a lot of WSW's aren't going to verify, but many forget there are booms & busts especially with these ULL's. Congrats to those who saw accumulating snow today. 

It has really dried up much more than any model is seeing. The Low tracked further west than almost any model had indicated which left that area in the dry slot instead of the comma head. Hate it for you guys. Glad some of the forum got the first significant winter storm on the books though. 

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Usually in these set ups I watch the cold hit the western plateau escarpment then it take forever for it to spill onto the plateau and then over the eastern escarpment, but I don't ever recall such speed of the cold in this type of set up, it has already came up the western escarpment and beginning to drop temps on the plateau, at this pace the cold will be spilling over into the eastern valley pretty quickly.  Of course not enough moisture to work with for us in the east, but I am simply amazed at the pace of the cold from west to east with this, so much so the terrain isn't slowing it as much as I expected.

37 Crab Orchard Cumberland County, 56 Rockwood Roane County.  Thats a distance of as the crow flies about 10 miles!

Temp Contrast.PNG

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9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Precipitation almost looks like it is moving more east now, maybe a little ESE.


.

Yea I thought so as well, then again I must be hallucinating from snow chasing:lol:

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