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nrgjeff

Jan. 12-13, 2018 winter storm Nowcast and Forecast

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Interesting write up by FFC regarding the storms effects on North GA.  I know its not our area, but I like reading all the regional NWS discussions for any inclinations and views.  

Quote
As the system departs...colder air will move in behind the system.
Guidance indicates this maybe moving in a little faster than
original thinking. In addition...seeing better moisture extend
further south...likely being somewhat enhanced by next approaching
shortwave energy along with left exit region and southward
progressing jet streak behind the front. Nonetheless...with a
noticeable frontal inversion seen in sounding data up towards
Chattanooga...think a brief sleet/snow mix may occur from west to
east across the far northern mountain counties from ~23z-02z before
the much colder air moves in. After ~02z will likely still see
lingering snow showers across the far north and system wrap-around
moisture continues to pull north/northeast. Could even see snow
flurries all the way down towards Carrollton and Atlanta (altho no
accumulation or impacts are expected).

 

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7 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

18Z NAM must be correct.  The entire forum has measurable winter weather except Hamilton County.

18Z NAM.PNG

When you look at the adjust maps to remove ice, no one get's more than an inch on the 18z NAM and those areas are few and far between. It may not apply as much out west, but JKL explained why the NAM was wrong with p-type earlier today for their region at least. It says it's too aggressive low level cold air and that very little freezing rain would occur in their area, that it would be snow/sleet or rain. 

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

When you look at the adjust maps to remove ice, no one get's more than an inch on the 18z NAM and those areas are few and far between. It may not apply as much out west, but JKL explained why the NAM was wrong with p-type earlier today for their region at least. It says it's too aggressive low level cold air and that very little freezing rain would occur in their area, that it would be snow/sleet or rain. 

Yeah I really just posted it because of the Chattanooga snow dome.  Worked in Chatty for years and saw it over and over I would head home there would be snow and nothing at all in Chatt.

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My thoughts now are basically Nashville west, north of 40, 1-3 inches of snow, .25 ice with some sleet too. East of Nash to Crossville, 1 inch of snow, minor ice. East of the plateau, less than 1 inch of snow to no accumulations.

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2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Yeah I really just posted it because of the Chattanooga snow dome.  Worked in Chatty for years and saw it over and over I would head home there would be snow and nothing at all in Chatt.

you are correct sir lol

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4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

My thoughts now are basically Nashville west, north of 40, 1-3 inches of snow, .25 ice with some sleet too. East of Nash to Crossville, 1 inch of snow, minor ice. East of the plateau, less than 1 inch of snow to no accumulations.

MRX appears to be in agreement, as their latest disco has no mention of the valley when talking about this system.

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I do think this will be a fun one to watch even being in East TN with not much to get out of it, also sometimes these events hold surprises and those are fun to watch unfold.

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I've lived here since 2001 and had to slowly learn to accept it. At first I thought surely that cannot be right but over the years I have learned the mountains around us and everything else seem to work against us most of the time. Best snows were Jan 2011, and February 2015... or maybe it was 14 I cant remember lol. 

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1 minute ago, Runman292 said:

MRX appears to be in agreement, as their latest disco has no mention of the valley when talking about this system.

Yep another hose job for the valley! :facepalm:

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1 hour ago, *Flash* said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
152 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

.For the northwestern counties of Middle Tennessee, a system will
move in Friday morning bringing rain that will transition shortly
before sunrise to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then to
all snow by the mid morning hours, with snow lasting into Friday
evening. Ice accumulations from one tenth to three tenths of an
inch are expected, with snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
possible.

For areas generally along and east of I-65 and all counties along
the Tennessee/Alabama state line, precipitation will change to a
mix of freezing rain and sleet in the morning, then to snow from
late morning through the afternoon. Light snow will continue into
Friday night. Ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an
inch will be possible, and snow accumulations of up to 2 inches
will be possible.

Travel conditions are expected to be hazardous Friday morning
into Friday night across all of Middle Tennessee.

ohx.png

I'm under a winter storm warning in west TN too.  Daytime events are always fun so I'm looking forward to it.

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All three for Chattanooga snow. Jan 2011 shut down schools for a week. Feb 2014 was the bowling ball from North Alabama. Feb 2015 was more of a slider, again from Alabama. Don't forget the white Christmas in 2010! It does snow here, but it is a downhill battle with downslope 7/8 directions.

Back to current events. I like East Kentucky 1-3 inches of snow. I like it so much I'd forecast it for the Tri Cities, Tenn.

Oh Nashville your WSW is not friendly to utilities. NAM/Euro soundings are a lot of ice. GFS has a steeper front, more sleet. Well, GFS got December 8!

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GFS looking similar to the NAM now.  Good run across 2/3 of the state.  West of Clarksville might Get clobbered good too.  Nice look for Flash, Jax and the rest if the nashville crew.  

IMG_0341.PNG

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57 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

MRX appears to be in agreement, as their latest disco has no mention of the valley when talking about this system.

So, are they going with the NAM??  Hard to tell from my take on it.  HWO doesn't really say much either.

 

 

Stronger synoptic forcing in association with the upper jet and
approaching trough arrives Friday morning. Models depict a
convective band in the frontogenetic zone entering our area from the
west around 14Z. There is also some elevated instability with this
line, so a slight chance of thunderstorms will be mentioned with it.
Timing of this convection takes it to our eastern border around 21Z.
At that time, we will have strong cold advection building into our
western sections behind the cold front, and a window of mixed p-
types may occur across the Cumberland Plateau before 00Z. Partial
thickness nomograms from the NAM soundings indicate a quick
transition from rain to predominantly sleet to snow. The GFS has
a less prominent warm nose than the NAM, and transitions from rain
to snow. Neither model supports more than a brief period of
freezing rain potential in the Plateau as the NAM`s above-
freezing warm nose fades quickly as surface temps drop to near
freezing, so ice accumulation is not a concern. In the 20-00Z time
frame, will mention a sleet/rain/snow transition across the
Plateau counties.

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1 hour ago, Kasper said:

Yep another hose job for the valley! :facepalm:

This one has always been a reach in the East....some trends very slightly NW w the late meso scale models this evening.  The EPS still likes the slp to make it mostly around the base of the souther Apps and into western NC.  For snow in the eastern Valley, we want it as far over there as we can get it.

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At this point, I'll be thrilled if I can get an inch out of it and thrilled if I can get an inch next week. That would more than triple my total for the winter so far and have me getting close to last years record worst snow total.

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I really think this storm is gonna be more of a NOWCASTING event.  Theres potential for over achieving across the state IMO.  Roads could get treacherous too since no preparation has been put into the roads due to the rain.

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I give props to NWS memphis for putting out the WS watch yesterday afternoon when they did.  They've done a great job trying to get people alerted rather than wait to try and save face with a uncertain forecast.

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1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

I really think this storm is gonna be more of a NOWCASTING event.  Theres potential for over achieving across the state IMO.  Roads could get treacherous too since no preparation has been put into the roads due to the rain.

I agree. I’m in White House Tennessee and I feel pretty good about this event. For some reason I feel this is going to be my first overachiever since I’ve lived here. Of course it could underachieve like many storms have over the years. That’s the beauty of snow storms in the south though. You never truly know what you’re going to get until it has fallen.

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9 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

I agree. I’m in White House Tennessee and I feel pretty good about this event. For some reason I feel this is going to be my first overachiever since I’ve lived here. Of course it could underachieve like many storms have over the years. That’s the beauty of snow storms in the south though. You never truly know what you’re going to get until it has fallen.

Just down the road in Cottontown. SlFingers crossed!

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At this point, I'll be thrilled if I can get an inch out of it and thrilled if I can get an inch next week. That would more than triple my total for the winter so far and have me getting close to last years record worst snow total.


I think you can easily squeeze 1-3 inches out of this event because you are further northwest and your temps will crash quicker than those locations in the valley. You are really close for a much bigger event if the TROWAL were to hang on longer than expected. I still think NETN isn’t out of the game yet for a 1-2 inch snowfall. All it takes is for the low to take a track up the east spine of the Apps instead of the west side.

If the HRRR is to be believed Memphis will have heavy snow falling in the morning on top of a solid layer of freezing rain. Travel will be almost impossible in West TN in the morning.
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Euro was good for west Tennessee and far NE TN that run. Set a nice band up there and got JC to 2 inches. Weakens/dry slots areas between Knox and Crossville north into SE KY. 1 inch or less in those areas. 

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