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Hoosier

January 11-13 Winter Storm

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

18 had 14" at Buffalo 

0 has 3" 

Models are pure garbage. ^_^

yep definitely, just have the feeling this whole thing will be a who knows and be surprised for good or bad anywhere from indiana to the interior northeast just pathetic models past few days

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The high just leans on this front and says, sorry ... I'm staying for the weekend. 

Think you might find a good analogue Jan 31 to Feb 2 1988. Same kind of outcome, record warmth to southern track snowfall.

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After successive HRRR runs last night went drier and east the main event actually came in back west a bit and produced 2.4" IMBY. Less than I was expecting monday but more then when I went to bed last night.

Left work at 1:00 and drove down to Welch Village Ski Area near Red Wing for 3" of powder, best event of the year so far...... 

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GRR Update

Quote
I continued the headlines as they are but I am very concerned that
snowfall amounts will be more like 3 to 6 inches in the I-69 area
by mid afternoon. This is supported by the latest runs of HRRR,
HRRRX, RAP model, SPC SREF plums, NAM12 00z run just to name a
few. The wave looks really good on the water vapor image loops and
that wave is heading north northeast. We have a negative tilt
upper wave over MS and AL this evening and those type systems tend
to track north and west of where the models show them. This system
should be coming into our area just as the deeper cold air
arrives. Thus most of the precipitation should be snow. There will
be strong winds with this system since the cold air is just
starting to come in. Thus if we really get that FGEN band of
heavier snow near I-69 the heavy falling snow and strong winds
will make for dangerous driving conditions. The good news is the
storm moves through quickly and in all areas the snow should be
done by 4 pm or so.[/quote]

 

Josh is not getting his magnet back! Locked safely away! :devilsmiley:

 

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25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Temp has fallen into the mid 20s here. Waiting for some light precip to stream back in a little later.

 

1230 AM Radar Temperatures.JPG

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Gone are all those who love to track the storms. It's as if they all just found out about Santa isn't real...

The models have been overamping in the long term for the entire winter season with out a single solution becoming a reality. What's the golden rule?? Wait for sampling before getting to invested in a particular outcome. Don't worry, the clipper will more than likely over perform. As for this one, 20 deg drop and a flip back to winter will be interesting to witness unfold.

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freezing rain in Indianapolis for the past hour with temp currently at 28. Just came up I-74 from s/e Indiana and can tell you that the roads are getting pretty dicey around here. Expecting the changeover to snow by 6am, this mornings commute in Central Indiana will be tough going to say the least. 

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33 here in Eastern Jackson County.  Looks like a very intense band of snow is going to set up between Jackson and Kalamazoo NE towards Lansing.  Still not clear exactly where it will setup but guessing those locations based on radar trends. Also not sure just how fast the change over to snow will occur.  Will be an interesting next few hours for sure.  EDIT:  Sleet began around 6:30 AM and 32.  EDIT:  Snow began around 7:10 AM and 31.  So no more than a hour for a change over to occur.  EDIT: Heavy snow at 7:20 am. (Very large flake size). EDIT: Near blizzard conditions at 8:00 am.  1" of snow, 27 degrees...visibility no more than 1/8 of a mile at times with gusty winds and blowing snow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Almost 2" here after the switchover on the very northern edge of the snow band, it's gonna rip real good for you guys south of here! At least I won't have to look at gross frozen grass after all my snowpack melted yesterday at almost 60 degrees.

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10 minutes ago, Harry said:

Yep.. Already over the two inch mark here as well. Roads are crap..

Still rain here but temp is rapidly falling. Should turn to freezing rain any time then snow after that. Give me back my magnet lol.

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8 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Gee, I hope the 6z NAM didn't spook the Ohio crew!

I guess we r in pure nowcast mode. FWIW, last nights Euro bumped up totals from 12z. 

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Heavy snow has inundated the majority of SeMi. Scoring a coup here with this system. Impressive rates and the speed of the changeover caught me by surprise. 

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The radar this morning is very interesting this morning showing the synoptic snow along with the LES driven by the NNW 850mb wind, not very often you see radar returns so close but with such very different directions. 

 

 

eadar gif.gif

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