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Hoosier

January 11-13 Winter Storm

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4 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Yea, definitely a spread the wealth scenario. A good foot over most of central OH. Too bad it won't happen.

I dunno, 6Z RGEM was going that way after .5” of ZR.  That was an insane run!

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1 minute ago, JayPSU said:

I dunno, 6Z RGEM was going that way after .5” of ZR.  That was an insane run!

Scary scenario if that verified!

Did the 3km NAM do well with the last East Coast storm?

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6 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Scary scenario if that verified!

Did the 3km NAM do well with the last East Coast storm?

Yes both NAMs did pretty well. Euro didn’t do well on the western side of the storm near DC.

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10 minutes ago, buckeye said:

This is a setup that could really have some nowcast surprises.   All the moving parts and the added uncertainty of when precip changeovers occur.

ILN should go 1-8" .  That should cover it:)

There definitely could be some localized lollipops.

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20 minutes ago, buckeye said:

This is a setup that could really have some nowcast surprises.   All the moving parts and the added uncertainty of when precip changeovers occur.

ILN should go 1-8" .  That should cover it:)

Hey, 2-4 with locally higher amounts covers anything! LOL

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8 minutes ago, wxdudemike said:

Hey, 2-4 with locally higher amounts covers anything! LOL

54 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Bummer since the 3km brings the foot line well into central Ohio too :lol:

That ILN map is fine by me...given how last year went and the misses to the SE.... I am talking freakin' GA/SC....this year. I'll take what I can get. 

Re: Winter in SW Ohio, if you want snow, you take what you can get. 

And the weenie in me likes the side we are on with the NAM given recent past performance...maybe not the 15", it's always over-juiced, but can I get 5 instead of 3? Here's to hoping.

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Just now, NoDoppler4TnySandz said:

That ILN map is fine by me...given how last year went and the misses to the SE.... I am talking freakin' GA/SC....this year. I'll take what I can get. 

Re: Winter in SW Ohio, if you want snow, you take what you can get. 

And the weenie in me likes the side we are on with the NAM given recent past performance...maybe not the 15", it's always over-juiced, but can I get 5 instead of 3? Here's to hoping.

And I know all my Buckeye brothers understand what I am talking about, particularly those not in the Northern sections of the state.

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For those threading the needle with this event, it seems that all of the higher res models are a tick west of their lower resolution counterparts. Happy for those who are going to see snow!

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

The HRDPS, a high resolution model, is the only model that is currently offering us SOME hope. Atm, I dont buy it but let's see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011106&fh=48

HRDPS actually does look way better for our area... shows a far north reaching precip shield with a handful of defo bands affecting our area... but at this point it's a (far) outlier.

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9 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

HRDPS actually does look way better for our area... shows a far north reaching precip shield with a handful of defo bands affecting our area... but at this point it's a (far) outlier.

The snow pack, or whats left of it, is going to be history by tomorrow morning so salvage what you can because it doesn't look like were going to see something similar for a while, lol. Cold and barren ground on the weekend. Absolutely hate that. January off to another terrible start. 

At this point, I've got no optimism left with this system. Progressiveness has been winning this entire winter and there's no reason to doubt it won't again for this system. 

 

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

My son goes back to Athens tomorrow.  According to the nam they can expect over a foot....meanwhile the gfs has them at 1". And we're inside 48 hrs lol.

They'll get a tenth or two of ZR, an insane amount (1-2") of sleet, and end as 1-2" of snow is my guess.  Surprised there isn't a Winter Storm Watch down there yet.  The NAM has a lot of that snow falling as heavy sleet for like 6 hours on the ptype maps.  6z runs...are we finally getting our NW shift??

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3km Nam extents precipitation shield west by about 40 miles.. That was unexpected. The difference between the 3 and 12km models is surprising... I wonder if convection is throwing this solution off. 

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1 minute ago, snowcaine said:

3km Nam shifts west by about 40 miles.. That was unexpected. 

5a5776cd663e9_nam3km.PNG.fdab3227f42f55e4a87617607e7909f0.PNG

Now that's what you call a snow hole or snow dome, right over Toronto, lol. 

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2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

5a5776cd663e9_nam3km.PNG.fdab3227f42f55e4a87617607e7909f0.PNG

Now that's what you call a snow hole or snow dome, right over Toronto, lol. 

I wouldn't call it a snow dome really... The northern edge of this system has some strong north easterlies, so areas to our east and west have lake effect impacts but we've just got land upstream from those winds. The cold air really floods in with this system. 

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22 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

I wouldn't call it a snow dome really... The northern edge of this system has some strong north easterlies, so areas to our east and west have lake effect impacts but we've just got land upstream from those winds. The cold air really floods in with this system. 

East?

Anyway...RGEM caved. Flurries it is.

edit: I guess you mean Niagara.

 

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4 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

East?

Anyway...RGEM caved. Flurries it is.

edit: I guess you mean Niagara.

 

You sure you don't want to hold out a bit of hope till 0z. Only partial sampling through 12z today. :lol: 

The difference 50 miles can make. 

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7 minutes ago, OHweather said:

RGEM didn't change the entire evolution like the NAM, but appears to be a bit farther SE than its 6z run.  

I think it will be a nowcast storm.

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12z NAM is a little interesting for the Detroit area. I don’t know if I trust how fast it wants to drop 850mb temps but there’s a lot of precipitation that moves into the region after around or just after the changeover. Detroit snow magnet? Lol

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