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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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Surface low appears to be around KY-WV-VA border or nw of Bristol, TN/VA moving northeast towards central PA. Synoptic snow band will likely be heaviest across se OH, nw half of WV, w/c PA into upstate NY, BUF could see 3-5" but 6-10" band will likely run from east of Jamestown or Olean NY to Syracuse, ROC will get enhancement from northerly flow off L Ont, so generally 12" possible ROC to SYR. Most of the secondary frontal band will collapse once this low begins to capture the energy, and the comma head feature will get pulled into the synoptic band but it may ride along the top of that band into central OH and towards Erie and then Buffalo, before being totally absorbed. 

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8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Surface low appears to be around KY-WV-VA border or nw of Bristol, TN/VA moving northeast towards central PA. Synoptic snow band will likely be heaviest across se OH, nw half of WV, w/c PA into upstate NY, BUF could see 3-5" but 6-10" band will likely run from east of Jamestown or Olean NY to Syracuse, ROC will get enhancement from northerly flow off L Ont, so generally 12" possible ROC to SYR. Most of the secondary frontal band will collapse once this low begins to capture the energy, and the comma head feature will get pulled into the synoptic band but it may ride along the top of that band into central OH and towards Erie and then Buffalo, before being totally absorbed. 

Why does it seem like the low is just east of Nashville, TN?

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What a start to the Area Forecast Discussion this afternoon from the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana:

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...Cold with Lake Effect Snow...

I don't know how AFD readers feel, but I am definitely happy to NOT 
be writing much about today's wintry Mix. I believe this storm 
was a great lesson for everyone about hyping "big winter storms" 
too far in advance, with most areas ending up below 2" of snow 
accumulation (a few isolated 2.5 in reports as of 20z) and minor 
ice accumulation. Will let the advisory expire this evening once 
snow clears the area. The evening shift may be able to drop the
remaining western counties (including Allen, IN) early. A few 
rivers have gone into minor flood stage this afternoon due to the 
snowmelt and rainfall we received, so monitor our AHPS page for 
any river flood warnings or statements. 
 

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What a garbage storm. By far the worst of the winter. Definitely p*ssed. We got 0.6" of snow atop a sheet and I mean a sheet of ice. I scraped what I could off the driveway and threw some salt down but theres only so much you can do. I imagine slips and falls on walkways will be plentiful. Looks like winter again but considering we had 6+ inches of snow on the ground most of the time since mid-Dec, I am not happy one bit. Wouldnt be so mad if it wasnt for losing a healthy snowpack due to 2 useless days of tropical dewpoints. This area is one of the last that should complain this winter, so I will leave it at that and give the complaint thread its first (and only) free pass of the winter. Clipper Monday looks good for a solid few inches of powder. We do clippers well here, so lets see. I have to work (took today off because of icy roads - what a waste of a day) but luckily traffic will be lighter than normal since its MLK day.

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I was walking to work this morning when the front passed. It was pretty cool. The winds rapidly picked up, the fog that was in placed rolled out to the east with the front (there was this valley to my west that was mired in fog and almost instantly became visible) and you could feel the nip against your skin as the temps tumbled 4-5 degrees.

One of the stronger fropa's I can remember.

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1 hour ago, snowcaine said:

Why does it seem like the low is just east of Nashville, TN?

Think that is a weaker surface reflection of the 700 mb low

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

(my link goes back to the surface panel, I intended to copy the 700 mb map, you can navigate to that and other upper air maps at the top using Upper Air. ... as you probably knew anyway :))

It's going to look disorganized until it gets partially across the Apps, will look a lot more developed in PA tonight.

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10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Just updated our snowfall contest and PAH reported 2.2" so far, that moves them past half the stations in terms of percentage of annual snowfall in their first day of measurable snow this winter.

Where is Apple Valley OH in relation to larger places? I am guessing south. 

I'm in apple valley unless there is a town called that lol. Knox county. 60 miles Northeast of Columbus

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Not too much here in Stow, Ohio yet. Everybody is hunkered down. Myself and most of my family members were called off work or sent home early. All schools closed, libraries closed, ect. The weather was looking very icy and you could hear ice hitting the windows around the 3-5pm hour. Not too much right now.

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3 hours ago, Jim Martin said:

What a start to the Area Forecast Discussion this afternoon from the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana:

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...Cold with Lake Effect Snow...

I don't know how AFD readers feel, but I am definitely happy to NOT 
be writing much about today's wintry Mix. I believe this storm 
was a great lesson for everyone about hyping "big winter storms" 
too far in advance, with most areas ending up below 2" of snow 
accumulation (a few isolated 2.5 in reports as of 20z) and minor 
ice accumulation. Will let the advisory expire this evening once 
snow clears the area. The evening shift may be able to drop the
remaining western counties (including Allen, IN) early. A few 
rivers have gone into minor flood stage this afternoon due to the 
snowmelt and rainfall we received, so monitor our AHPS page for 
any river flood warnings or statements. 
 

Love it! :lol:

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