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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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5 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Just a nudge to get into 3-6". And I'd take it. I hate going into the deep freeze with bare grass.

 

leftnudge.jpg

Not happening so to bad, haha. Like I said yesterday, unless I see the other models mishandling the H5 pattern, I have a hard time buying an outlier. Stick a fork in it. 

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25 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Well...the RGEM is sort of on its own here. Would need other models to come on board with the amount of amplification it's showing.

The HRDPS, a high resolution model, is the only model that is currently offering us SOME hope. Atm, I dont buy it but let's see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011106&fh=48

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8 minutes ago, wxdudemike said:

Hey, 2-4 with locally higher amounts covers anything! LOL

54 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Bummer since the 3km brings the foot line well into central Ohio too :lol:

That ILN map is fine by me...given how last year went and the misses to the SE.... I am talking freakin' GA/SC....this year. I'll take what I can get. 

Re: Winter in SW Ohio, if you want snow, you take what you can get. 

And the weenie in me likes the side we are on with the NAM given recent past performance...maybe not the 15", it's always over-juiced, but can I get 5 instead of 3? Here's to hoping.

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Just now, NoDoppler4TnySandz said:

That ILN map is fine by me...given how last year went and the misses to the SE.... I am talking freakin' GA/SC....this year. I'll take what I can get. 

Re: Winter in SW Ohio, if you want snow, you take what you can get. 

And the weenie in me likes the side we are on with the NAM given recent past performance...maybe not the 15", it's always over-juiced, but can I get 5 instead of 3? Here's to hoping.

And I know all my Buckeye brothers understand what I am talking about, particularly those not in the Northern sections of the state.

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

The HRDPS, a high resolution model, is the only model that is currently offering us SOME hope. Atm, I dont buy it but let's see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011106&fh=48

HRDPS actually does look way better for our area... shows a far north reaching precip shield with a handful of defo bands affecting our area... but at this point it's a (far) outlier.

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9 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

HRDPS actually does look way better for our area... shows a far north reaching precip shield with a handful of defo bands affecting our area... but at this point it's a (far) outlier.

The snow pack, or whats left of it, is going to be history by tomorrow morning so salvage what you can because it doesn't look like were going to see something similar for a while, lol. Cold and barren ground on the weekend. Absolutely hate that. January off to another terrible start. 

At this point, I've got no optimism left with this system. Progressiveness has been winning this entire winter and there's no reason to doubt it won't again for this system. 

 

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

My son goes back to Athens tomorrow.  According to the nam they can expect over a foot....meanwhile the gfs has them at 1". And we're inside 48 hrs lol.

They'll get a tenth or two of ZR, an insane amount (1-2") of sleet, and end as 1-2" of snow is my guess.  Surprised there isn't a Winter Storm Watch down there yet.  The NAM has a lot of that snow falling as heavy sleet for like 6 hours on the ptype maps.  6z runs...are we finally getting our NW shift??

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2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

5a5776cd663e9_nam3km.PNG.fdab3227f42f55e4a87617607e7909f0.PNG

Now that's what you call a snow hole or snow dome, right over Toronto, lol. 

I wouldn't call it a snow dome really... The northern edge of this system has some strong north easterlies, so areas to our east and west have lake effect impacts but we've just got land upstream from those winds. The cold air really floods in with this system. 

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22 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

I wouldn't call it a snow dome really... The northern edge of this system has some strong north easterlies, so areas to our east and west have lake effect impacts but we've just got land upstream from those winds. The cold air really floods in with this system. 

East?

Anyway...RGEM caved. Flurries it is.

edit: I guess you mean Niagara.

 

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