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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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11 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I can't help but think this ton of warm moist air thats being transported north is really screwing with the models.  It's a lot warmer here. 6-9 degrees, than any model had us as early as 12Z.  My P&C low has increased 10 degrees since this morning.  I dunno, there just seems something fishy's going on.  :weenie:

Models underestimate temps in the warm sector of cold season storms like 99% of the time. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

The gfs gave me this and took it away. That was way worse. Had about 2-3 days of these runs from a stj that suddenly dissapeared5675b72906bca671faea0d433378646b.jpg

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah I feel our areas have just been screwed a lot. Good luck to you guys. I don't envy the NWS right now  

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If it makes you guys feel better, I don’t think I’ve seen a 6+ inch event since 2011. Maybe a clipper or two that overperformed.

 

Even though this is trending better for us, we still will likely only get 4-6 inches. 

 

Really been a tough stretch for anyone pitside the I-95 corridor.

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3 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

6z NAM a good hit for southern and eastern OH. Anyone NW of CMH is shafted.

 

Over a foot for you. I'm rooting NAM all the way. 6z was quite a bit stronger. But it is off hour. I'll wait on the GFS but would like to see it come in stronger as well in hopes that it's due to having more sampling.

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Just now, dilly84 said:

Over a foot for you. I'm rooting NAM all the way. 6z was quite a bit stronger. But it is off hour. I'll wait on the GFS but would like to see it come in stronger as well in hopes that it's due to having more sampling.

Yea, stronger overall, even CMH squeezes a decent hit out of it.

I must be honest, I am not a huge fan of this set up. Threading the needle around these parts rarely works out.

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1 minute ago, vespasian70 said:

Yea, stronger overall, even CMH squeezes a decent hit out of it.

I must be honest, I am not a huge fan of this set up. Threading the needle around these parts rarely works out.

Not really threading the needle as we know we are going to get some ZR. Changeover from West to east so I think we'll be good. Just a matter of how strong or weak the system ends up being. Every model is around the same track but the strengths are so different it's hard to say. We could get 2" or 12" lol.

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1 minute ago, dilly84 said:

Not really threading the needle as we know we are going to get some ZR. Changeover from West to east so I think we'll be good. Just a matter of how strong or weak the system ends up being. Every model is around the same track but the strengths are so different it's hard to say. We could get 2" or 12" lol.

The globals need to get on board. At least the 00z euro was a step in the right direction!

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4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

RGEM looks better than the NAM. It ensembles have been much more bullish as well. More refined and negative tilted. The core band is more up over I-71(definitely a buckeye run) rather than eastern ohio. I wonder if the northern stream dipping further southeast than expected hasn't thrown the models off but ultimately that would have led to a track over I-71 interestingly once the belled tolled. So it may be a blessing. 

FWIW, ILN has issued a watch for the I-71 corridor.

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With the good start to winter here and the complete model failure here, this will probably be the 7th or 8th largest snowfall....THIS SEASON so far :lol:. But what should not be taken lightly is that condijtions could be dangerous tomorrow morning. Rain turning to ice then snow as temps plummet. Travel nightmare. A glaze of ice followed by 1-2" snow is the current forecast. Early am temps tomorrow in the 50s will be teens by evening.

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8 hours ago, Toronto4 said:

Same here. As a lifelong Torontonian, I have grown accustomed to busts and the odd pleasant surprise (April 11, 1999, Feb 8, 2001 and March 5, 2001).

Back to this upcoming “event”, I’m not expecting anything major and if things somehow improve, it’ll be 2 to 3” at best for the GTA.

I agree with the 2-3". The 6z RGEM seemed to go slightly northwest giving us a brief busst of moderate snow in the midnight to 2 am period on Saturday. Better than nothing.

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1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

6z RGEM is a bit more robust than the rest of the guidance. 0z UKIE/6z GFS would only need a 30-40 miles push to the west to give Toronto a moderate event Friday night. Still have a heartbeat with this one. Wish the northern stream would dig a little more and at least partially phase with the southern wave.

We'll see what the 12z RGEM does. If it holds steady or goes even slightly northwest, we're good for 2-4", I'd say,

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