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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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Not going to get my hopes up too much, but inside of 60 and especially 48 hours the NAMs did the best with the recent blizzard on the east coast. It is something to watch for sure as they along with other mesoscale models will clue in on any small nuance that the globals are missing. Again not going to hang my hat on it just yet, but there is still a bit of room to correct back west.

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12 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I think it has...and that's not being a weenie...I mean hell there really is no further it can go in minimalization.    I don't know if you saw the 12zukie but it also weakens the low into two waves as it comes up.   Looked a lot like the euro surface map around hr 60-72

The most dramatic swing west to east among all the models for the storm within 24-26 hours. Doesn't seem right.

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What will make or break this storm is how fast the cold air gets to your backyard.   Do we waste 60% of the precip as sleet or will there be a faster changeover than expected?  Thinking back to these type of storms (rain changing to snow), probably more often than not the cold air gets in quicker than expected once you go from liquid to frozen.  Dec04 was a classic example.

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7 minutes ago, buckeye said:

What will make or break this storm is how fast the cold air gets to your backyard.   Do we waste 60% of the precip as sleet or will there be a faster changeover than expected?  Thinking back to these type of storms (rain changing to snow), probably more often than not the cold air gets in quicker than expected once you go from liquid to frozen.  Dec04 was a classic example.

I could definitely see the cold air coming in a bit quicker, especially near the surface.  Models often struggle a bit to keep up in rapid advection/tight gradient scenarios, so the drop to freezing behind the front could be a bit quicker than progged.  One fly in the ointment for that would be if temps significantly overperform in the warm sector, which would obviously make it a farther tumble to get below freezing.

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3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Main s/w energy partially passed over northern Mexico on 12z run, where RAOB coverage is not as dense. Maybe that accounted for the weaker/progressive trend on the 12z models? I don't know. Straw grasping time folks.

18z is almost fully sampled, so the GFS siding with the Euro is pretty crippling. The NAM is being ballsy though and RDPS looks similar... But never good to be in the GEM/NAM camp over the ECMWF/GFS

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Whether we get salvage snow will come down to whether the H5/H7 lows amplify/close off like the NAM/RGEM show or whether this is just a glorified FROPA like the GFS/EURO show.

I guess the good news it'll only take a 50 miles shift back to the west even on the EURO/GFS to get something appreciable, if not significant.

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The 18z NAM/RGEM have a little less northern stream influence and a much more robust southern stream shortwave (closed off at 500mb) than the global models, which is what allows their stronger/much wetter solution.  There are reasons this is possible, including the strong temp gradient the storm will be developing on and ample feed of moist/unstable air from the Gulf, which can cause a positive feedback in a developing storm and allow it to strengthen.  But, the overwhelming trend on the global models can't be ignored, and you wonder if the meso models are just giving some false hope for a more NW solution like they often do.  

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39 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

GFS looks a lot like the Euro. Supressed and east. 

Honestly, this entire system has been a heartbreaker for us here in Toronto... Every run, so close but not close enough.

Haven't thrown in the towel yet. If the 0z runs come in lock-step with the 12z, even further east, then I think you can file this away in the fail folder as we'll finally have some run-to-run continuity. However, I think there's a chance the 0z models come back further to the west. We've seen this before where all the models lose the storm only to bring it back, even if it's a shadow of its former glory. To quote Snowstorms, "let's see".

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