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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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Just now, zinski1990 said:

I would laugh hard if the runs this evening and tonight all went back to what they were consistently showing before last nights let down. Of course I'd be excited but it be too funny

That would be the most epic model fail ever.   That would even beat the infamous Feb'09 vanishing app bomb.

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

the euro eps members are pathetic.   A few moderate (6-10") hits thru Ohio.... a couple further west and further east...but the vast majority look like dusting to a couple of inches

The only consolation I can think of on those is they were just terrible on the East Coast storm last week...way too weak/dry/east until barely 24 hours out...but considering this is part of a larger trend they were quite concerning.  

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

What a terrible performance by the ECMWF for this storm.

And it’s already starting to cave towards the GFS for the clipper that follows as well.


.

Yep what happened to the days when the EURO was the most reliable model especially for winter? The GFS used to cave towards it all the time.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

What a terrible performance by the ECMWF for this storm.

And it’s already starting to cave towards the GFS for the clipper that follows as well.


.

Exactly and I always thought that this type of storm set up was in the euro wheelhouse.    The IWX nws office must feel cheated on the way they hugged and slobbered all over the earlier euro runs and trashed the gfs.

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Exactly and I always thought that this type of storm set up was in the euro wheelhouse.    The IWX nws office must feel cheated on the way they hugged and slobbered all over the earlier euro runs and trashed the gfs.

I also think their Special Weather Statement last night might have jinxed us all lol

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ILN unimpressed:

.....

 All in all, snow amounts will be
tempered, especially being dependent on how fast precipitation
changes to all snow. In addition, the period of strongest
frontogenetic forcing is more short lived, along with a small window
of vertical motion intersecting the favored dendritic growth zone (-
12 C to -18 C), which will result in lower snowfall amounts. Given
these reasons, did not feel confident enough to go with a Winter
Storm Watch for a part of my area in the 4th and 5th period of the
forecast. We will likely end up having at least an advisory
everywhere, but questionable if we reach low warning criteria in
parts of the area (4" in 12 hours versus 6` in 12 hours south versus
north). So, latest thinking is about 3 to 5 inches for roughly the
northwest two thirds of the CWFA (with near 4 inches being the mid
point), with 2 to 4 inches the remainder of the southeast with 3
inches being the mid point. It should finally be noted that the
pressure gradient will pick up Friday into Friday night with some
gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range, which will cause some drifting and
local blowing of snow.
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Yes NW about 30 miles.  This is gonna be a 24 hour prior nail biter for these parts if the 12Z Euro hangs out on its own.  I've noticed on all of the models the orientation and strength of the opposing ridges is very much in flux.  How much of this is/could be due to the models not handling latent heat transfer well is above my feeble weather brain:weenie: 

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20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

What a terrible performance by the ECMWF for this storm.

And it’s already starting to cave towards the GFS for the clipper that follows as well.


.

Yeah, not the finest hour.  Question now is whether it has gone too far in the minimization direction.

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9 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Yes NW about 30 miles.  This is gonna be a 24 hour prior nail biter for these parts if the 12Z Euro hangs out on its own.  I've noticed on all of the models the orientation and strength of the opposing ridges is very much in flux.  How much of this is/could be due to the models not handling latent heat transfer well is above my feeble weather brain:weenie: 

I feel you, east of you in eastern Delaware county/Muncie

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Yeah, not the finest hour.  Question now is whether it has gone too far in the minimization direction.

I think it has...and that's not being a weenie...I mean hell there really is no further it can go in minimalization.    I don't know if you saw the 12zukie but it also weakens the low into two waves as it comes up.   Looked a lot like the euro surface map around hr 60-72

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6 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

So is the 3km NAM just as bad as the 12km NAM. It is painting a completely different picture, and should not be discounted in my opinion.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_55.png

The 3km has a better handle on the dynamics, LP positioning and H5 pattern than the 12km within 60 hours. It's a higher resolution of the 12km Nam. Would be very important in nailing down precip quantities once we get within 36 hours as it should have a better handle on the abundant moisture plume from the Atlantic and Gulf. 

I believe it did fairly decent in the east coast blizzard as opposed to the operational models. But don't quote me on that, haha. Lets see! 

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