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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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10 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

I don't know, seems a consensus is building. There are going to be swerves west and east for another 2-3 days as the storm will be cranking up 3 days from now. I just don't see any big moves now considering the models know where the barco zone will set up. Just how well it cranks up.

If I was in FTW and TOL, I would be treating myself lol.

Way too early to be getting excited in those places. That's the worst way to get yourself all excited just for a big letdown.

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From IWX....

...Potential Winter Storm Late Friday Through Saturday...

A period of active winter weather is expected from Friday morning
through Saturday. Rain is expected to transition to a wintry
mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow early Friday morning into
before changing to all snow Friday afternoon. Some ice
accumulation and slick roadways are possible during this period.
Snowfall accumulations are expected to be minor through Friday
afternoon with a few inches of snow possible especially along and
southeast of Route 24.

A stronger storm system will affect the area Friday night into
Saturday with a potential of significant snow accumulations in
excess of 6 inches. Some uncertainty remains regarding the
exact track of this system, but at this time the greatest potential
of significant snow accumulations appears to be roughly southeast
of a line from Litchfield, MI to Logansport, IN Friday night into
Saturday evening. In addition, there is a potential of gusty
north winds accompanying the storm resulting in blowing and
drifting snow and significantly reduced visibilities.

Small changes in forecast storm track will dramatically change
forecast snowfall amounts. Anyone planning travel across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region should stay updated on
later forecasts as confidence in the track of this storm increases
over the next few days. Much colder air will move back into the
region Saturday night behind this system with increasing chances of
lake effect snow showers Saturday night into Sunday morning.

$$
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Despite the intra-run instability, actually had a bit more consensus being found amongst the models at 12z.

Cautiously optimistic here in snow-hole central. If it does materialize it'll end a really perplexing drought we've been in re: snow-storms in January. Toronto hasn't had 6"+ of synoptic snow in January since 2004 I believe.

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9 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Despite the intra-run instability, actually had a bit more consensus being found amongst the models at 12z.

Cautiously optimistic here in snow-hole central. If it does materialize it'll end a really perplexing drought we've been in re: snow-storms in January. Toronto hasn't had 6"+ of synoptic snow in January since 2004 I believe.

I was just about to say we had a 6"+ event last February and in December 2014 until I saw "January" lol. I agree, January's have been very uneventful for the last 10+ years, especially the last two. I'll gain optimism by Thursday, still alot of uncertainty for our area. How are the dynamics for any LES enhancement?

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2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I was just about to say we had a 6"+ event last February and in December 2014 until I saw "January" lol. I agree, January's have been very uneventful for the last 10+ years, especially the last two. I'll gain optimism by Thursday, still alot of uncertainty for our area. How are the dynamics for any LES enhancement?

Famous last words I know but I feel we'll get something decent out of this. Even if it's a ZR/PL palooza followed by 6" of snow ala last night's EURO.

Zero LEnhS here as flow has too much northerly component. Hamilton, but especially Niagara, could get some once the cold air deepens a bit.

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Watching this one from Sydney, Australia, so I don’t have any skin in the game. But it looks like someone is going to get absolutely murdered with ice the way some of these NAM runs look. Pulling for a STL-IND special, been awhile since that area has gotten a good hit. 

I hear it's a tad bit warm there right now.

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19 minutes ago, Stebo said:

If the potential were maximized yes, but not currently modeled no. It isn't far off though in some locations with the Euro.

Yeah, if the max band runs around IND-FWA-TOL and it's the amount of precip that the Euro has been showing, then it would be getting into once in a lifetime there.

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31 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Famous last words I know but I feel we'll get something decent out of this. Even if it's a ZR/PL palooza followed by 6" of snow ala last night's EURO.

Zero LEnhS here as flow has too much northerly component. Hamilton, but especially Niagara, could get some once the cold air deepens a bit.

One thing that maybe in our favour is the strong HP across the Plains which may limit just how far west it can track. Timing is everything, but surface temperatures should cool off relatively quickly through Friday. Let's see! Can't say I'm not excited to be tracking this, been a while.

Great input! Not an LES expert, so thanks for the insight. 

 

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7 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Long time lurker...first time (in this forum, anyway) poster. I’m am planning on traveling to Indy for work on Saturday but was wondering if traveling into the area on Friday is actually better. Should I travel on Friday or wait till Saturday?

Friday would be much better. The earlier Friday, the better.

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