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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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4 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

I think the Euro is too far west now and will nudge east.  Only question is where they all meet in the middle.  I keep thinking about December 2004.  Would be a heartbreaker for Central Ohio in terms of snow (2004 was 6.6" and lots of ice), but not horrible for a storm. 

I thought about that one too (2004).   Similar in that the cold air came in with it rather than being in place.  In fact it was suppose to be primarily a rain to mix event but the cold came in quicker and it was a surprise snow storm....turning to ice.   Of course the artic air mass that came in was also stronger for that one.

I think for this storm the truth lies between the euro and gfs which doesn't bode to well for us since we can't take too much of a nw or warmer solution than what the gfs shows.

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I thought about that one too (2004).   Similar in that the cold air came in with it rather than being in place.  In fact it was suppose to be primarily a rain to mix event but the cold came in quicker and it was a surprise snow storm....turning to ice.   Of course the artic air mass that came in was also stronger for that one.

I think for this storm the truth lies between the euro and gfs which doesn't bode to well for us since we can't take too much of a nw or warmer solution than what the gfs shows.

The one difference is that, as you said, 2004 was snow to ice.  This one looks like rain to ice to snow at the tail end.  Only question is when the changeover occurs.  Rain to snow scenarios are notoriously difficult to predict along 71, which is so often the literal dividing line.  Of course, if the Euro is right, that line will be well west of there.

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1 hour ago, King James said:


We haven’t seen snow in Chicago in so long that we’d throw stones at it


.

The GHD Storm, The Super bowl Sunday storm and the historic winter of 2014 argue differently. We've had many great winters in the past 10-15 years begs to differ. To keep this post relevant to the existing storm I hope it hits Chicago. :o

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7 minutes ago, MikeGold said:

The writing is on the wall for this one... GFS has started the trend to the Euro as expected. Michigan may end up with some rather remarkable snow totals.

Keep in mind, it’s not like the Euro has been a pillar of run to run consistency.  It’s been waffling east/west too.  So it’s hard to say the GFS is “caving” to the Euro.

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6 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Keep in mind, it’s not like the Euro has been a pillar of run to run consistency.  It’s been waffling east/west too.  So it’s hard to say the GFS is “caving” to the Euro.

True but the 0Z run was consistent with its own ensemble members which probably means future model shifts will be minimal.  QPF's totals may come down as really that can't realistically go up.  

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3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

That was quite a nw shift on 0z euro. If this secondary energy goes negative tilt quicker could see see a more nw track. Curious if this trend continues. Cutoff is quite brutal with this. LOT had an excellent write up this morning

Wanted to second the point about the great LOT afd.  Valuable to read even if you're not in their zone.

There are good arguments either way for this trending north or south, so I really have no idea about which way it ends up going.  The problem with this one for areas like mine is that the 00z Euro basically has to be 100% correct... there is no room for compromise as even a 70-80% Euro solution is not good enough. Could it be that far northwest?  Maybe, but it's not necessarily a good predicament to be in.

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wanted to second the point about the great LOT afd.  Valuable to read even if you're not in their zone.

There are good arguments either way for this trending north or south, so I really have no idea about which way it ends up going.  The problem with this one for areas like mine is that the 00z Euro basically has to be 100% correct... there is no room for compromise as even a 70-80% Euro solution is not good enough. Could it be that far northwest?  Maybe, but it's not necessarily a good predicament to be in.

Interesting point they raised about a stronger surge from the gulf pumping the SE ridge.  Still a lot to iron out.

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