OHweather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 If it's GFS/NAM vs foreign go with the foreign camp every time, though it's just starting to get into NAM range and it's not quite as progressive as the GFS. Let's see what the rest of the 12z runs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowcaine said: As much as I think Chicago is kind of out of this (and I wouldn't feel too bad given how many more storms they've had than us Ontario/Ohio folks), I have seen this happen many times when once there's sampling, bullseye is right over Chicago/SEMI and it's sadness for us eastern posters who were teased with the goodies in the med/long range... but it sure feels good to be sandwiched in the middle of the GFS/Euro solutions right now. It has been a long time since there's been a proper Apps runner, which is probably why I'm so skeptical... cautiously optimistic at this stage. We have under 6" on the season thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: it definitely would sling shot north a bit more but would probably only be able to go so far before it shunted east looking at the 500. of course we're extrapolating an 84 hr nam...so there's that It's amazing to me that the weak little kicker in the northern plains could have such an impact on a big developing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, OHweather said: If it's GFS/NAM vs foreign go with the foreign camp every time, though it's just starting to get into NAM range and it's not quite as progressive as the GFS. Let's see what the rest of the 12z runs do. yup.... I think the record is something like 1,345 - 2, since I've been tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 As much as I think Chicago is kind of out of this (and I wouldn't feel too bad given how many more storms they've had than us Ontario/Ohio folks), I have seen this happen many times when once there's sampling, bullseye is right over Chicago/SEMI and it's sadness for us eastern posters who were teased with the goodies in the med/long range... but it sure feels good to be sandwiched in the middle of the GFS/Euro solutions right now. It has been a long time since there's been a proper Apps runner, which is probably why I'm so skeptical... cautiously optimistic at this stage.We haven’t seen snow in Chicago in so long that we’d throw stones at it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: We have under 6" on the season thus far. I think most Ontario/Ohio posters have had one 12"+ storm in the past decade or so... I believe Chicago area has had quite a few more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowcaine said: I think most Ontario/Ohio posters have had one 12"+ storm in the past decade or so... I believe Chicago area has had quite a few more. ?? The storm track has been abysmal for Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and for the most part, West Michigan (thank goodness for lake effect snow here). I believe the only foot plus snowstorm in Chicago in years was the Groundhog Day storm. Yes, Ohio and Southern Ontario have also seen a huge deficit...but saying they "deserve it" compared to Chicagoland seems a bit unfair. Both regions have had horrible "luck" with Detroit in the middle getting it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 This is why I love forecasting weather. You get these storms that are tough nuts to crack. Anyway, here is the experimental 3km FV3 core GFS output. 6Z still east like the op run, but the 0Z cycle was northwest of the op run. 6Z shown below... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, blackrock said: ?? The storm track has been abysmal for Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and for the most part, West Michigan (thank goodness for lake effect snow here). I believe the only foot plus snowstorm in Chicago in years was the Groundhog Day storm. Yes, Ohio and Southern Ontario have also seen a huge deficit...but saying they "deserve it" compared to Chicagoland seems a bit unfair. Both regions have had horrible "luck" with Detroit in the middle getting it all. The only ones that have been consistently doing well since GHD are the East Coasters. Yet they still whine when a storm doesn't go their way lol. It's amusing and irritating at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The dumb Detroit free press put out a headline about more snow coming to southeast MI Friday with 5-8". That irritates me to no end. Now the public will have a field day as word spreads like wildfire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, michsnowfreak said: The dumb Detroit free press put out a headline about more snow coming to southeast MI Friday with 5-8". That irritates me to no end. Now the public will have a field day as word spreads like wildfire. 5 to 8 inches!?! Thanks for letting me know. I will post on Facebook and text all my friends in Michigan to go to the stores, gas up, and freak out. Can I cite you as the source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Hey guys swamped at work, haven’t had time to check models. From quick skimming it appears models are trending towards a more east solution, while euro goes west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 25 minutes ago, buckeye said: it definitely would sling shot north a bit more but would probably only be able to go so far before it shunted east looking at the 500. of course we're extrapolating an 84 hr nam...so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chambana said: Hey guys swamped at work, haven’t had time to check models. From quick skimming it appears models are trending towards a more east solution, while euro goes west? Not really. American models are East, while the rest are West. As usual, GFS vs. Euro. 12Z runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The only ones that have been consistently doing well since GHD are the East Coasters. Yet they still whine when a storm doesn't go their way lol. It's amusing and irritating at the same time. This is false.Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: The only ones that have been consistently doing well since GHD are the East Coasters. Yet they still whine when a storm doesn't go their way lol. It's amusing and irritating at the same time. Some of them think this storm will be another east coast special as if they haven't already gotten one a few days ago, lol. They been doing well since before that storm. Forgot 09-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, blackrock said: Not really. American models are East, while the rest are West. As usual, GFS vs. Euro. 12Z runs will be interesting. Thanks blackrock. Really hope we can pull this one in, been lousy here for 3 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The dumb Detroit free press put out a headline about more snow coming to southeast MI Friday with 5-8". That irritates me to no end. Now the public will have a field day as word spreads like wildfire. The worst part is that they used TWC as their reference. Usually, when they write articles about the weather, they consult the NWS. I guess it's a slow news day (clickbait). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Guest said: This is false. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk No, it's true. The Detroit crowd has been doing consistently well...but they don't whine every time a storm misses them. That's the difference. They have the power of positivity...right @michsnowfreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, blackrock said: No, it's true. The Detroit crowd has been doing consistently well...but they don't whine every time a storm misses them. That's the difference. They have the power of positivity...right @michsnowfreak? Last time Chicago has 12"+ was February 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z gfs out to 54... only real difference so far is the first wave is a little weaker. Axis looks about the same... probably going to still be to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, blackrock said: No, it's true. The Detroit crowd has been doing consistently well...but they don't whine every time a storm misses them. That's the difference. They have the power of positivity...right @michsnowfreak? Yep lol. Its comparing apples to oranges though. Their climate is different. We have had more big snowstorms than normal here too, it's not like we have been consistently seeing above normal snow without big storms. But we can't and wont see noreasters type storms, just as they cant and won't see snow falling frequently from many different type of weather disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z GFS shifts west, better aligns with 0z CMC. Nice negative tilt @90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: 12z gfs out to 54... only real difference so far is the first wave is a little weaker. Axis looks about the same... probably going to still be to the east. A good run for CMH. Too bad the euro isn't having any of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 GFS remains unchanged for 3 straight days almost. Still think Euro is correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Sooo..... west is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, vespasian70 said: A good run for CMH. Too bad the euro isn't having any of it! I think the Euro is too far west now and will nudge east. Only question is where they all meet in the middle. I keep thinking about December 2004. Would be a heartbreaker for Central Ohio in terms of snow (2004 was 6.6" and lots of ice), but not horrible for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS remains unchanged for 3 straight days almost. Still think Euro is correct solution. Unchanged? It just shifted a solid 100-150 miles northwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, mimillman said: Unchanged? It just shifted a solid 100-150 miles northwest... Unchanged for my location. It's been very consistent with heaviest snow across WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: Unchanged? It just shifted a solid 100-150 miles northwest... Still far to the east of the other models. Either it continues to move west or the others come east. No one is out of it yet. This run was pretty close to its 0z run from yesterday, so it's waffling east west in the same general area- WV panhandle to extreme northern Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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