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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Your event up there is tied to this first wave coming onshore. The event further east and south will be tied to a different secondary wave rounding the base of the trough late this week

Thanks for the clarification, wasn't actually sure how to lump the event up here into the main storm in the OV since the energy from my first wave does seem to get somewhat absorbed into the 2nd low coming north. Always appreciate the correction, still learning.

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Couple of things that come to mind which may be under-modelled currently. Mesoscale models should have a somewhat better grasp.

1) With a very strong CCB, a potent dryslot will be present which may further enhance the gradient along the NW side of the low. Most relevant if the further west/more amped tracks occur.

2) Potential for LES on the backside of the low as wind shifts to the NW

 

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16 minutes ago, ORDIOWPITMSP said:

Thanks for the clarification, wasn't actually sure how to lump the event up here into the main storm in the OV since the energy from my first wave does seem to get somewhat absorbed into the 2nd low coming north. Always appreciate the correction, still learning.

No problem at all! You def got a nice snowstorm coming! Praying this 2nd wave keeps coming NW. This is the big bubba I been waiting for

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Does the nam have a wheelhouse ?
The gfs has been outperforming the euro at least on east coast. In this winter...id go with the more progressive east and lesser amp solution. Check out navgem lol

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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Majority of models show a TROWAL moving from the Mid-South toward Indiana, and continuing northeast - track subject to change. In contrast to typical comma heads, a true TROWAL can produce robust snowfall rates in line with other strong WAA regimes. TROWALs are mesoscale features, so models will bounce around a bit. If a TROWAL verifies, good luck getting under it and enjoying it.

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KBUFs thoughts:

There is still a good deal of uncertainty with the exact track of
the surface low, and how quickly cold air arrives on its western
flank later Friday through Saturday. The GFS and Canadian GEM have
been very consistent since yesterday with the surface low tracking
up the Appalachians to southern New England. The ECMWF has shown
more variability, with the latest 00Z iteration showing a farther
west track from western PA to central NY. GEFS and GEM ensemble
members show fairly tight clustering around the farther east
solutions, supporting the operational GFS and GEM track.
Precip will start as rain everywhere Friday morning, with a
transition to snow taking place from northwest to southeast Friday
night in the GFS and GEM scenarios, or Saturday in the ECMWF
scenario. The low level cold air will likely undercut warm air aloft
initially in a differential temperature advection pattern, so the
transition from rain to snow may be a messy one with a period of
sleet and freezing rain. This transition would be fairly quick in
the GFS and GEM scenarios, but if the ECMWF verifies the icy mix
would last much longer Friday night into Saturday.

QPF will likely be significant with this system given the strong
dynamics and deep moisture. If an early transition to snow takes
place, accumulations may be significant across much of the area. If
the ECMWF solution verifies, snow amounts would be lower but ice
amounts could be much higher. Rain at the onset of the system Friday
may increase the risk of ice jam flooding, with increasing runoff
from snowmelt and rain combined with several days of warm
temperatures allowing river ice to break up by late Thursday night
or Friday. Given the complexity of the pattern evolution and the
sensitivity of precip type to the exact low track, it will likely be
another 36-48 hours before model guidance begins to converge on a
common solution.
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17 minutes ago, Ji said:

The gfs has been outperforming the euro at least on east coast. In this winter...id go with the more progressive east and lesser amp solution. Check out navgem lol

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

I do not keep track of model verification or anything, but a few of our snowfalls this winter the euro schooled the gfs. 

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

This thread shows me how different I am than some of you guys. I have seen several posts about being happy just to have something to track. I have thoroughly enjoyed this winter. But tracking this storm is just stressful. I get no enjoyment out of it :lol:

True, but there’s nothing better than when things start trending your way haha

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This thread shows me how different I am than some of you guys. I have seen several posts about being happy just to have something to track. I have thoroughly enjoyed this winter. But tracking this storm is just stressful. I get no enjoyment out of it :lol:

Tracking is the best part IMO. 

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17 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

What makes you say That? Climo and the NWS beg to differ 

Agree. 

"FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL EJECT  
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED  
IN THEIR CAMPS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH GFS QUICKER AND  
FURTHER EAST WITH SFC LOW AND EC/GEM/UKMET ALL LEANING TOWARDS  
SLOWER/STRONGER AND FURTHER NW SOLUTION. INTERESTING NOTE ON 700  
MB LOW ON THE GFS IS DEPICTED MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN SFC   
REFLECTION (OVER E OHIO SAT AM). SUSPECT WITH TIME THE GFS WILL  
COME INTO LINE WITH OTHER MODELS." 


 

 


 
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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Nam is less phased, actually kind of cuts off which keeps it from shooting north....at least.    Ultimately what us easterners have to root for is more of that....otherwise that trough goes negative tilt and the low drives right up into OH.

It looks like it is about to aim due north in the hours after that...or starting to lean in that direction for future model runs.

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As much as I think Chicago is kind of out of this (and I wouldn't feel too bad given how many more storms they've had than us Ontario/Ohio folks), I have seen this happen many times when once there's sampling, bullseye is right over Chicago/SEMI and it's sadness for us eastern posters who were teased with the goodies in the med/long range... but it sure feels good to be sandwiched in the middle of the GFS/Euro solutions right now.

It has been a long time since there's been a proper Apps runner, which is probably why I'm so skeptical... cautiously optimistic at this stage.

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"Who is Ji?"

Ji is a legendary Mid Atlantic poster. Known for being as pessimistic as anyone who ever trolled a weatherboard. Over the years....his infamous declaration that "WINTER IS OVER" is one of legends. Often parodied...never duplicated. We should be honored such royalty stopped by these parts. LOL!!!!!

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4 minutes ago, blackrock said:

It looks like it is about to aim due north in the hours after that...or starting to lean in that direction for future model runs.

it definitely would sling shot north a bit more but would probably only be able to go so far before it shunted east looking at the 500. 

of course we're extrapolating an 84 hr nam...so there's that

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1 minute ago, iluvsnow said:

"Who is Ji?"

Ji is a legendary Mid Atlantic poster. Known for being as pessimistic as anyone who ever trolled a weatherboard. Over the years....his infamous declaration that "WINTER IS OVER" is one of legends. Often parodied...never duplicated. We should be honored such royalty stopped by these parts. LOL!!!!!

I was going to write a similar post! lol... It was surreal to see his post...

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