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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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15 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Definitely possible if we don't get a clean phase...which the majority of models/ensemble members have, but some don't so it's a solution we can't yet discount. 

Really what it comes down to is how much of a kicker vs. phaser the incoming s/w is, which is something that is a question in many storm setups.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Really what it comes down to is how much of a kicker vs. phaser the incoming s/w is, which is something that is a question in many storm setups.

Right.  It helps confidence somewhat that there's been pretty consistent agreement among the ops and ensemble members on a decent phase, but until the (smaller) camp that has more of a kicker than a phaser goes away we can't discount it.  In terms of limiting uncertainty, the piece that creates the first wave on Thursday doesn't get sampled partially until 12z tomorrow and more fully 0z Wednesday...the second piece that turns into our southern stream shortwave does get partial sampling tomorrow and fuller sampling Wednesday...and the shortwave that either phases or kicks it farther east doesn't get sampled until 0z Friday.  So there is quite a bit of time, though some certainty may be added as early as tomorrow's 12z runs if there's a decided trend one way or another. 

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31 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I would say 2/3rd are west if the op with some even bringing the rain/ice line close to here. Only one or two are like the ukie nonsense. Which is a large shift west compared to 06z ensembles as well.

I have been not looking forward to the mini torch Thursday as we have such a nice snowpack that will undoubtedly be down to piles and patches...but is the warm weather actually helping this storm? 

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

I have been not looking forward to the mini torch Thursday as we have such a nice snowpack that will undoubtedly be down to piles and patches...but is the warm weather actually helping this storm? 

Explicitly no the warm weather isn't but the trough having 2 pieces, the first system lays out a path for the second system to follow. So in a roundabout way yes.

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24 minutes ago, Sidewinder said:

This looks way more plausible with temps expected and typical of Central Indiana. 

I actually didn't think it was that bad of a look.  It would likely change to snow after that and rip... though maybe the eastern part of central IN would be more problematic.

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A bit of a no duh post but if you're farther west, you want the initial wave as far west as possible with a slowdown in the cold frontal passage.  Just the opposite if you're east.

Keep the ‘no duh’ post coming every now and then. Helps conceptualize things for those of us with limited understanding


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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Put some basic prelim thoughts in the LES thread for anyone from Chicago metro or elsewhere who is interested in that.

Was watching this threat as well. If it's a miss with the synoptic snows, at least put us in a sweet spot with a long fetch LES event.

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