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Tn Valley Severe Weather


jaxjagman
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59 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Carvers Gap

Some strong winds just above the surface heading your way. MRX thinks they might mix down:

AIqF9Tw.png

 

 

That probably verified out at 30-35 mph stuff thankfully.  I think the winds must have pulled-up just far enough off the ground, and that spared us.  You could year it, just never made it to the ground.

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Last night was intense! I was out chasing between 2:45-3:30 am CT to stream this tornado as it approached my location near the Hwy 70/Kingston Springs Rd. intersection. At one point, the power (and consequently my feed) shut off. While I didn’t see the tornado, I did vehicularly experience the rapid inflow. I really had no reason being out there apart from the fact I can’t help myself. While I live in White Bluff, I’ve been residing in Kingston Springs the past few months (due to NICU proximity, our house flooded in October; it’s been a crazy year). Essentially, this EF-2 thread the 6-7 mile needle between these towns with the greatest local damage occurring in the Foggy Bottoms areas westward towards the Cheatham/Dickson county line.

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Its like clock work with this pattern right now.Trrough went through East Asia,not very impressive but still could get some thunderstorms around the weekend

Bigger severe threat could  possibly happen just before Christmas time unfortunately. Big trough going through East Asia with a Rex block building into the Western Aleutians

da0f99b1-5dfc-4d83-8832-99a5af835c5f.gif

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 901 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2021 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR DECEMBER 10-11, 2021 TORNADO EVENT... THIS IS THE LATEST STORM SURVEY INFORMATION FROM NWS NASHVILLE. AS OF THIS EVENING, 7 CONFIRMED TORNADOES OCCURRED IN MIDDLE TN, HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SURVEYS WILL BE CONDUCTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THIS WEEK. INFORMATION WILL BE PUBLISHED AS SOON AS IT'S AVAILABLE.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202112130301-KOHX-NOUS44-PNSOHX

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UBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
900 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021

...UPDATED NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR DECEMBER 10-11, 2021 TORNADO EVENT...

.UPDATE...COMBINED NWS MEMPHIS, NWS NASHVILLE AND NWS PADUCAH 
PORTIONS OF LONG TRACK TORNADO INTO ONE NARRATIVE, AND ALSO 
COMBINED CLAY COUNTY TN AND MONROE COUNTY KY TORNADO INFO. 
UPDATED NORTHWEST HICKMAN COUNTY, DICKSON, AND KINGSTON SPRINGS 
TORNADO PATHS BASED ON NASA SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND INCREASED 
WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH THE HENDERSONVILLE TORNADO. ALSO ADDED 1 
MINOR INJURY FOR THE MOUNT JULIET TORNADO. A TOTAL OF 15 
TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THIS 
EVENT. 

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202112160300-KOHX-NOUS44-PNSOHX

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UBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN900 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021...UPDATED NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR DECEMBER 10-11, 2021 TORNADO EVENT....UPDATE...COMBINED NWS MEMPHIS, NWS NASHVILLE AND NWS PADUCAH PORTIONS OF LONG TRACK TORNADO INTO ONE NARRATIVE, AND ALSO COMBINED CLAY COUNTY TN AND MONROE COUNTY KY TORNADO INFO. UPDATED NORTHWEST HICKMAN COUNTY, DICKSON, AND KINGSTON SPRINGS TORNADO PATHS BASED ON NASA SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH THE HENDERSONVILLE TORNADO. ALSO ADDED 1 MINOR INJURY FOR THE MOUNT JULIET TORNADO. A TOTAL OF 15 TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THIS EVENT. 

 
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202112160300-KOHX-NOUS44-PNSOHX


Not something you see everyday…

39a02e9335d1021031061688b2349175.jpg


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We haven't had a active severe fall in quite some time,this year was epic for sure

 

December 10-11, 2021 Tornado Outbreak

 

One of the worst tornado outbreaks ever recorded in the United States struck the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley from the evening hours on December 10 into the morning hours on December 11, 2021. What made this tornado outbreak even more unusual was that it occurred in the month of December, and is easily the worst tornado outbreak ever during that month. Dozens of tornadoes affected Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama, killing over 100 people and injuries dozens of others.  Across Middle Tennessee, a total of 15 tornadoes were determined to have touched down as of December 18th - three EF-2 tornadoes, six EF-1 tornadoes, and six EF-0 tornadoes - making this the 5th largest tornado outbreak on record in Middle Tennessee. These tornadoes injured 8 people and caused millions of dollars in property and tree damage in many counties. 

These tornadoes, combined with the 5 tornadoes that occurred just a few days earlier across Middle Tennessee on December 6, 2021, set a new record for the number of tornadoes during the month of December Here are some December Tornado Stats:

  • A total of 20 tornadoes occurred across Middle Tennessee in December 2021 - five on December 6th & fifteen on December 10-11th.
  • From the 1800s through 2020, only 17 tornadoes were recorded across Middle Tennessee in the month of December
  • Many counties that had tornadoes in December 2021 had never recorded a tornado in the month of December before, including Stewart, Humphreys, Cheatham, Wilson, Trousdale, Overton, Pickett, Coffee, and Grundy Counties
  • A total of 44 tornadoes have occurred across Middle Tennessee in 2021 - the most on record, beating the previous high total of 38 in 2011

 

 

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20211211

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On 12/12/2021 at 2:02 PM, jaxjagman said:

Its like clock work with this pattern right now.Trrough went through East Asia,not very impressive but still could get some thunderstorms around the weekend

Bigger severe threat could  possibly happen just before Christmas time unfortunately. Big trough going through East Asia with a Rex block building into the Western Aleutians

da0f99b1-5dfc-4d83-8832-99a5af835c5f.gif

Didnt quite work out,just some wind

gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_8.png

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January 1-3 looking interesting. Reed Timmer on his video today is thinking another major outbreak

.

Here we go….

“...D7-8/Sat-Sun - Portions of the Southeast...
The last several runs of the ECMWF and GFS show advancement of the western CONUS upper-level trough which moves eastward across the CONUS as a positively tilted trough. This would be higher amplitude than any of the shortwave troughs which are forecast to cross the Plains this week. An amplified mid-level trough interacting with a broad warm sector with mid to upper 60s dewpoints could lead to a significant severe-weather episode. There are still considerable differences in the timing and amplitude of this advancing upper-level trough, which can be seen comparing not only the operational long-range model suite, but also the varying solutions within the GEFS. However, despite these differences, virtually all the members show the potential for a severe weather event sometime on Saturday or Sunday. The lack of run-to-run model consistency and timing differences are too great to include probabilities at this time. However, if these uncertainties become more clear in the coming days, probabilities may need to be added”


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15 hours ago, John1122 said:

I'm all for Jax or someone starting a new thread for 2022 since this one is a few years old now. Thanks to you guys who are good at severe, I'm not a severe expert by any means and I always read your stuff when it's looking likely. 

If no one else does it work on it later today

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