Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Tn Valley Severe Weather


jaxjagman
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Risk was marginal, but we did have tornadoes today in a part of the state that rarely sees them.

 

 

TennesseeTornadoes2020.png

 

I'll be curious to see if they find anything in Campbell. Generally, as the graphic shows we are the least Tornado prone County in the whole state.  

The possible Tornado today was just right along the border of Campbell and Scott. The 1 confirmed Tornado in that 70 year period here also barely clipped Campbell County but on the far eastern border. I've always assumed Cross Mtn plays a big role in disrupting storms that are possibly tornadoic here since 99 percent of them seem to move SW to NE and it shoots up to nearly 4000 feet in the SW section of Campbell. The one Tornado that had hit here came from the NW to the SE on the Claiborne line. 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thursday was an example of Upper Cumberland Plateau yet again. @John1122 very glad you are safe! Did you take that picture? The Great Plains feel!

I was unable to get out on Thursday; but, I was wondering if that Upper Plateau effect would spin up something. I would have tried harder to get out if I knew it'd be like that. Seems the elevation improves low level inflow to storms. Plateau is up in the stronger southerly wind those days.

I don't see as much of the effect on the Lower Plateau. Perhaps the Upper Plateau is more continuous. Lower Plateau is interrupted by the Sequatchie Valley.

NWS has studied the Plateau and found no statistically significant anomaly. I agree overall. Action is usually south and west. However on Marginal days I feel like the Plateau over-performs. Elevation may allow an otherwise meh day to produce up there.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thursday was an example of Upper Cumberland Plateau yet again. [mention=499]John1122[/mention] very glad you are safe! Did you take that picture? The Great Plains feel!
I was unable to get out on Thursday; but, I was wondering if that Upper Plateau effect would spin up something. I would have tried harder to get out if I knew it'd be like that. Seems the elevation improves low level inflow to storms. Plateau is up in the stronger southerly wind those days.
I don't see as much of the effect on the Lower Plateau. Perhaps the Upper Plateau is more continuous. Lower Plateau is interrupted by the Sequatchie Valley.
NWS has studied the Plateau and found no statistically significant anomaly. I agree overall. Action is usually south and west. However on Marginal days I feel like the Plateau over-performs. Elevation may allow an otherwise meh day to produce up there.

It would naturally lower LCL and CIN right?


.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS 11-15 day does have a low-amplitude trough come through the South, which is a favored pattern in late April. Huge full-latitude troughs are always over-rated. Particularly by late April, low amplitude can be high impact.

I know some members are not fond of severe wx. That far out we're just jawboning. Don't worry about it. Just something for enthusiasts to track.

Also regarding Plateau LCL and CIN @PowellVolz those are right and probably as important as the low level wind speed.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe we can tee up some severe late this week or the weekend (Fri-Sun Apr. 23-25) timing is way up in the air.

GFS goes from not finding the system, to sending through two chunks of energy. Some debacles never change. Euro and its Parallel (new Euro on-deck soon) are consistent on severe somewhere in the South; however, tracks are all over the place. Mid South, Deep South, Gulf Coast only, poor timing for Tennessee Valley, ideal timing for Tenn. 

For those who get anxious, this is still just the jawboning stage. 

One thing about late April is the Deep South is not so sloppy. Proper timing on a weekend and I go!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Maybe we can tee up some severe late this week or the weekend (Fri-Sun Apr. 23-25) timing is way up in the air.

GFS goes from not finding the system, to sending through two chunks of energy. Some debacles never change. Euro and its Parallel (new Euro on-deck soon) are consistent on severe somewhere in the South; however, tracks are all over the place. Mid South, Deep South, Gulf Coast only, poor timing for Tennessee Valley, ideal timing for Tenn. 

For those who get anxious, this is still just the jawboning stage. 

One thing about late April is the Deep South is not so sloppy. Proper timing on a weekend and I go!

Not very exciting for us in the Valley indeed right now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ECMWF is somewhat on board too. Possible the trough is filling and lifting north at the time, leaving only modest kinematics over the South. We will have instability, but will we have the dynamics?

Naturally I wish I was in the Plains for these next 2-3 systems. Soon. Very soon.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Chance for some strong storms tomorrow.

 

National Weather Service Nashville TN
325 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Consensus blended model forecast used through Monday afternoon.
Broke out a late afternoon zone grouping dealing with continued
area of showers streaming northwest to southeast across western
and southwestern portions of mid state region, This area is
expected to shift southeastward as late afternoon hours progress
and eventually move out of mid state region before the evening
hours begin.

Otherwise, not much overall change from previous forecast
reasoning. The surface front that is hanging around mid state
region will push northward as a warm front into Kentucky
overnight. This will cause the mid state to experience much
warmer and humid conditions on Sunday. From afternoon through
evening hours on Sunday some strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible with strong to damaging winds the main concern.
Best chance for strongest convection will be for locations
approaching TN River Valley and southwest portions of mid state
approaching TN/AL Border region. During this time period also,
strong surface pressure gradient influences could cause winds to
gust to 25 to 35 MPH at times. Taking a closer look, by the
afternoon hours on Sunday, mid state will begin to see some
surface instability (>1000 J/kg) accompanied with decent shear
and rather strong lapse rates. Instability does still appear to
be a limiting factor, but it does look like mid state region will
experience just enough instability to support development of some
strong to severe thunderstorms. As mentioned above, damaging
winds will be the primary concern, but large hail, and with model
sounding PWAT`S approaching at or around 1.5 inches, heavy
downpours causing localized flooding, especially across locations
approaching TN River Valley and southwest portions of mid state
region approaching TN/AL border could occur too. Isolated tornado
formation certainly can not be ruled out either.

CIPS Model Guida (2).png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...