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jaxjagman

Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

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Friday night set up east of the highest SPC probabilities. Believe the main problem was a warmer layer (cap) for Middle Tenn. Meanwhile a boundary set up from Kentucky to North Georgia. It started out in Middle Tenn. but was capped. Despite lower overall parameters east, the low levels closed the deal. Boundary enhanced low level shear. 

It got real near Spring City for a bit. Neighbors and I were watching the distant lightning. Watching the lightning reminded me of waiting for nocturnal storms back in the Plains. However we were concerned for the people up in the tornado warning.

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I might have missed a post about this...We were out of town last week as mentioned in the banter thread.  However, because we were two hours behind in the Rockies, I saw the thunderstorm lines approaching Kingsport.  I actually contacted my family to let them know that they were incoming.  Colonial Heights go absolutely hammered.  My house was without power for 24 hours after initially not being without power.  A tree came down the next night which I assume was damaged on Friday.  As of last night some homes had been without power for 48 hours.    Heck, I even think the NOAA transmitter was knocked out... I would not be surprised if other posters in the area were/are without power.  Cooks Valley was hit pretty hard as well.  @Windspeed, how did you fair?

https://www.wjhl.com/local/nws-noaa-weather-radio-transmitter-knocked-out-by-storms/1316293579

Here is the Kingsport power outage story....

https://www.wjhl.com/local/thousands-without-power-in-the-tri-cities/1313358631

Here are some slide shows...

https://www.wjhl.com/news/viewer-photos-720-severe-thunderstorms/1315189683

https://www.wjhl.com/local/nightwatchman-pinned-inside-truck-tree-crashed-onto-camper-at-warriors-path-state-park/1314446733

https://www.timesnews.net/gallery/Friday-night-storms

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On 7/21/2018 at 6:08 PM, jaxjagman said:

Perfect example of why more money need to be spent on American modeling.Yesterday CANSips and even SHARPpy showed analogs of 7//4/2004,though this was more wind and hail.I almost posted a pic of it,now i wish i did

Still a bit sore about this in my attempt to find 'lessons learned'. Clearly, with respect to the outlook/risk zones pre-Friday PM, this system overachieved on the east side. Curious if any could make a case that this was NOT a low verification score event. I guess for now I'll hang my 'future reference' hat on this: On sharp right turning systems, pay close attention to stable/sinking air intrusion from the northwest. Storms will likely fire on both sides of this zone as the SPC storm report graphic confirms (per NashvilleSevereWx). Or to put it another way, perhaps this system was the winter storm equivalent of dry-slotting. Just some raw ideas for thought...

yesterday_filtered.gif-582×408-Google-Chrome-2018-07-21-09.32.04.png

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1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Still a bit sore about this in my attempt to find 'lessons learned'. Clearly, with respect to the outlook/risk zones pre-Friday PM, this system overachieved on the east side. Curious if any could make a case that this was NOT a low verification score event. I guess for now I'll hang my 'future reference' hat on this: On sharp right turning systems, pay close attention to stable/sinking air intrusion from the northwest. Storms will likely fire on both sides of this zone as the SPC storm report graphic confirms (per NashvilleSevereWx). Or to put it another way, perhaps this system was the winter storm equivalent of dry-slotting. Just some raw ideas for thought...

yesterday_filtered.gif-582×408-Google-Chrome-2018-07-21-09.32.04.png

Flash, great share and post.  I wonder if time of day saved Nashville along w the ideas that you mentioned?  I think NE TN took it on the chin because the storms fired and held together late in the day into the evening.  But totally agree that systems that turn sharp, right-turning systems have to be watched.  

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6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Flash, great share and post.  I wonder if time of day saved Nashville along w the ideas that you mentioned?  I think NE TN took it on the chin because the storms fired and held together late in the day into the evening.  But totally agree that systems that turn sharp, right-turning systems have to be watched.  

Agreed. All I know is: for the BNA viewing area, I believe this is the 2nd or 3rd time a 'moderate risk' has busted in 2018. Granted, we've had a seemingly supernatural dome overhead since 2/5/2008 (outside the big flood)...contributing to a widespread 'meh' mentality among many of my weather-neutral colleagues. But at some point, that dome has to break...just like when the snowdome broke on 1/22/2016. Also, I may sound crazy here, but I root for positive American modeling performance/verification and lack of destruction/damage/death, etc. A fine line perhaps, but I'll willing to walk it. 

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The Euro would have done great with this system if it wouldn't have crapped out at the last minute.For several runs before it showed a "LID" in place over Mid Tn. and the strongest storms over east of I-65

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7 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Kinda Modoki look into fall by Jamstec,we haven't had a good fall severe for some time.

3.png

5.png

Good find.  The Euro Weeklies from yesterday likely support that.  BN heights and AN precip over the SE, though they certainly have the coldest temps in the lee of the Rockies.  That look is pretty consistent throughout its 46 day run with maybe some weakening of the cold in the lee of the central Rockies.  

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I can handle temps in the mid 80s during the worst of summer, even upper 80s.  Every day we steal from the grips of Dog Days is one less day from potentially the hottest time of the year.  Kind of like the reverse of winter when we sometimes get AN temps during the middle of our coldest time frame in January.  The LR models and Euro Weeklies(see also the JAMSTEC that Jax posted...) seem to be transitioning to a Nino-is pattern.  Seems like they jumped the gun once...but I suspect this is a legit transition now w the amount of rain we are receiving.

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Looks like the Euro try’s to cool off significantly towards the end of its ten day run, potential flooding look for Chattanooga over to Atlanta around the 4th of August.  Still a ways out but North GA was showing 7.5 inches of rain for that timeframe, 2.5 for chatt!

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Starting Monday it looks cooler again, perhaps for most of next week with scattered thundershowers. Tuesday is currently the day models/NWP highlights for heavier storms in the Valley, but it has shifted around. 36 hours ago NWP favored Monday.

At any rate a synoptic system with quality upper level wind fields is forecast early next week for the Valley. Looks mainly eastern half of our region perhaps Tuesday. GFS has upper level wind speed but mostly same direction. Euro has more turning upstairs, upper system a bit more open. If it rains the day before, chance of an outflow boundary increases. If timing changes it could be Mid Atlantic (per NWP 36 hours ago). Finally we'll see if the wind field forecast holds up.

Most days with thundershowers should not be severe. Over five days we should be able to absorb that QPF without major flooding concern, at least in Tenn. However the devil is in the local details. Local flash flooding is always possible with thunderstorms. Also with sustained southeast flow, Georgia and up the Blue Ridge could have a lot more precip.

 

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21 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Starting Monday it looks cooler again, perhaps for most of next week with scattered thundershowers. Tuesday is currently the day models/NWP highlights for heavier storms in the Valley, but it has shifted around. 36 hours ago NWP favored Monday.

At any rate a synoptic system with quality upper level wind fields is forecast early next week for the Valley. Looks mainly eastern half of our region perhaps Tuesday. GFS has upper level wind speed but mostly same direction. Euro has more turning upstairs, upper system a bit more open. If it rains the day before, chance of an outflow boundary increases. If timing changes it could be Mid Atlantic (per NWP 36 hours ago). Finally we'll see if the wind field forecast holds up.

Most days with thundershowers should not be severe. Over five days we should be able to absorb that QPF without major flooding concern, at least in Tenn. However the devil is in the local details. Local flash flooding is always possible with thunderstorms. Also with sustained southeast flow, Georgia and up the Blue Ridge could have a lot more precip.

 

This summer has come full circle from winter. I.e. I can buy into the temps, but I'll believe the precip when I see it the way my lawn is goin...

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11 hours ago, *Flash* said:

This summer has come full circle from winter. I.e. I can buy into the temps, but I'll believe the precip when I see it the way my lawn is goin...

Nashville is going with the Euro.Euro has a shortwave trough coming through the Mid Valley,late night,early morning Tuesday.Wind shear looks weakish right now but at least should be enough for a poor mans severe chance with just thunderstorms,showalter is around -4,in the Mid Valley.

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Euro is slightly different today for us in Mid Tn. from yesterday this time.Monday looks more scattered with weak wind shear but there is a weak shortwave trough coming through..Into the late evening into early morning Tuesday the LLShear starts to pick up.Kinda question the capes the Euro shows with the CAMS,Tuesday.But anyways the LL shear is showing 20 kts into the early afternoon into the early evening here,with the 850mb winds increasing to around 35kts around late afternoon,with another shortwave trough coming though.There would be some decent rains Tuesday afternoon into early evening here at least,if it's right of course.If the CAMS get better we'll have more severe chance.

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