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Tn Valley Severe Weather


jaxjagman
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You guys in the East have done quite well this summer,rain,severe,etc.etc.We didn't even get a drop of rain yesterday.That's the life of the Valley,someone is going to get screwed any type of season..lol.

The Euro actually did well for you guys with this system and it showed this for several runs but for some reason it wigged out at the last minute and showed a more severe in the Mid Valley.

Long range models show a more neutral/positive tilted trough around next weekend.With a cold front,timing issues.But instabilities looks weak.The Euro would seem to maybe bring a marginal risk if that .If the Euro were to be right,right now there would seem to be some short waves rotating underneath to cause some more isolated severe threat

Longer range could get interesting though.In East Asia there looks to be several tropical systems, typhoons on the maps upcoming the next few days,can we get something to re-curve?.Looks pretty active ,right now in that part of the world.So any long range the models shows will probably struggle some what.

Then looking into August the Euro and GEFS wants to kill the MJO,from the Euro aspect and it's biased nature into phase 6 it typically gets finicky.Into the first part of August the MJO seems to be possibly getting into the GOM, signs of KW into  the GOM as well right now

Real Time multivariate MJO Phase Space Diagrams   Michael J  Ventrice  Ph D .png

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51 minutes ago, Chinook said:

This was the biggest joke of a tornado watch. Almost no severe reports in it.

vTOqUWz.gif

Perfect example of why more money need to be spent on American modeling.Yesterday CANSips and even SHARPpy showed analogs of 7//4/2004,though this was more wind and hail.I almost posted a pic of it,now i wish i did

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Euro got slightly better into the weekend,around Sunday/Monday.GFS even shows some capes now.Not a great severe look but it's still 7 days out. Euro this afternoon shows a shortwave trough going through the Tn Valley during this time,instabilities still look weak

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SOI took a big dip recently the last couple days.Asia is more or less showing the HP into Korea getting shifted more into China upcoming .Should be a warmup into the first of August  and potentially a nice system into the 2nd week of August.Also potential of a CCKW into wk 2 of August,watch the GOM

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

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Friday night set up east of the highest SPC probabilities. Believe the main problem was a warmer layer (cap) for Middle Tenn. Meanwhile a boundary set up from Kentucky to North Georgia. It started out in Middle Tenn. but was capped. Despite lower overall parameters east, the low levels closed the deal. Boundary enhanced low level shear. 

It got real near Spring City for a bit. Neighbors and I were watching the distant lightning. Watching the lightning reminded me of waiting for nocturnal storms back in the Plains. However we were concerned for the people up in the tornado warning.

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I might have missed a post about this...We were out of town last week as mentioned in the banter thread.  However, because we were two hours behind in the Rockies, I saw the thunderstorm lines approaching Kingsport.  I actually contacted my family to let them know that they were incoming.  Colonial Heights go absolutely hammered.  My house was without power for 24 hours after initially not being without power.  A tree came down the next night which I assume was damaged on Friday.  As of last night some homes had been without power for 48 hours.    Heck, I even think the NOAA transmitter was knocked out... I would not be surprised if other posters in the area were/are without power.  Cooks Valley was hit pretty hard as well.  @Windspeed, how did you fair?

https://www.wjhl.com/local/nws-noaa-weather-radio-transmitter-knocked-out-by-storms/1316293579

Here is the Kingsport power outage story....

https://www.wjhl.com/local/thousands-without-power-in-the-tri-cities/1313358631

Here are some slide shows...

https://www.wjhl.com/news/viewer-photos-720-severe-thunderstorms/1315189683

https://www.wjhl.com/local/nightwatchman-pinned-inside-truck-tree-crashed-onto-camper-at-warriors-path-state-park/1314446733

https://www.timesnews.net/gallery/Friday-night-storms

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1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Still a bit sore about this in my attempt to find 'lessons learned'. Clearly, with respect to the outlook/risk zones pre-Friday PM, this system overachieved on the east side. Curious if any could make a case that this was NOT a low verification score event. I guess for now I'll hang my 'future reference' hat on this: On sharp right turning systems, pay close attention to stable/sinking air intrusion from the northwest. Storms will likely fire on both sides of this zone as the SPC storm report graphic confirms (per NashvilleSevereWx). Or to put it another way, perhaps this system was the winter storm equivalent of dry-slotting. Just some raw ideas for thought...

yesterday_filtered.gif-582×408-Google-Chrome-2018-07-21-09.32.04.png

Flash, great share and post.  I wonder if time of day saved Nashville along w the ideas that you mentioned?  I think NE TN took it on the chin because the storms fired and held together late in the day into the evening.  But totally agree that systems that turn sharp, right-turning systems have to be watched.  

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7 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Kinda Modoki look into fall by Jamstec,we haven't had a good fall severe for some time.

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Good find.  The Euro Weeklies from yesterday likely support that.  BN heights and AN precip over the SE, though they certainly have the coldest temps in the lee of the Rockies.  That look is pretty consistent throughout its 46 day run with maybe some weakening of the cold in the lee of the central Rockies.  

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I can handle temps in the mid 80s during the worst of summer, even upper 80s.  Every day we steal from the grips of Dog Days is one less day from potentially the hottest time of the year.  Kind of like the reverse of winter when we sometimes get AN temps during the middle of our coldest time frame in January.  The LR models and Euro Weeklies(see also the JAMSTEC that Jax posted...) seem to be transitioning to a Nino-is pattern.  Seems like they jumped the gun once...but I suspect this is a legit transition now w the amount of rain we are receiving.

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