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jaxjagman

Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

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Looks like an early severe threat into the Valley and possibly later on into the spring time.Enso looks like a transition from a more Nina pattern into a more Nino pattern in the summer,could be a crap year into the plains the way it looks right now.Either way winter time into spring time is showing some potential as it looks right now

Lead 2 prate.png

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3 minutes ago, JPOracle said:

My sister lives in Murpheesboro TN and word from there is there already doing tornado drills just in case.  This system is one that looks dangerous

These are just predictions based on models into late winter into spring.It's not rare various sites fine tune their EMS  in the  winter time here.There is no threat of severe weather upcoming with the cold established at this time

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We are safe from severe for a while. However I love getting the thread going early and often!

La Nina should get the South/Dixie going early and often as well. Plains would peter out if a quick transition to El Nino. It is all relative though. In the Plains even a BN severe May has opportunity. Last year is a good example. If one is flexible, I figure a good week will show up in May out in the Plains. I'm counting on it!

Back here, looks quiet balance of January. We have cold snaps scheduled this weekend into early next week, and again at the end of the month and first of February if one believes the Weeklies. I figure the warmer middle and end of February (monthly forecast) would get severe going a little bit.

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On 1/8/2018 at 10:40 AM, Carvers Gap said:

Always an informative thread.  We need the enso thread as well, Jax. It looks interesting over the next year or so.

Meant to post back sooner.When i get back from  Chicago i will do this.But you need to help out this time as well with other posters here,this is really time consuming,and i know others can chime in which would benefit the thread as well.We have some good posters here now and it's growing.So everyone should chime in from time to time with thoughts

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8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Meant to post back sooner.When i get back from  Chicago i will do this.But you need to help out this time as well with other posters here,this is really time consuming,and i know others can chime in which would benefit the thread as well.We have some good posters here now and it's growing.So everyone should chime in from time to time with thoughts

Will do.

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Love Spring and Summer Severe Weather Season, it’s what I’ve studied the most, I’m by no means the expert! I think with so much cold lately, when we finally start to get out of this pattern...... kaboom, I think we could be in for an exceptionally nasty spring! I will do my best to contribute as much as possible! 

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Well 2011 was a weak La Nina with snow in January and a warmer February. In no way would I ever joke about those tragic events. However I'm expecting an active severe wx season.

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14 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Well 2011 was a weak La Nina with snow in January and a warmer February. In no way would I ever joke about those tragic events. However I'm expecting an active severe wx season.

I like severe season also.The only set back to me looks like if there is a SSW event that would throw a wrench in it,but i dont see it right now.Some signs of downwelling into Feb,not sure it will work out,even if if did it could even go on the wrong side and benefit severe season.The Equatorial temp anomaly is already showing some warm areas trying to upwell even east of the IDL,So we basically have seen Nina peak,if it holds on a few more weeks.Severe season looks good to me,especially early season.We should have one more cold snap first of Feb.,then games on ,what it looks to me right now

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Latest Kelvin wave should lock La Nina for a few more weeks at least. Dixie Alley should have an active season. We go earlier than the Plains, so it is indeed time to make the call. MJO is creating massive heat flux into the Mid Latitudes. SSW may not matter. Peer reviewed research shows a weak correlation for North America; better for Eurasia. So, I will go with the warm ECMWF weeklies. Weeks 5-6 introduce a West trough with southwest flow over Dixie. That'll light it up!

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Amy Butler mentioned 1999 and 2009 on her twitter for the SSWE.The ONI is somewhat similar,right now anyways to 2009.Plus Jeff,is calling for an active season made me go search some,this is no forecast

In 1999 this long lasting strong Nina event that lasted  well over a year and i couldn't find much of anything on severe weather events on Wiki

Now, 2009 was quite different.This shows Nina falling off in FMA.Then a strong Nino started to form  in JJA

1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6
1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7
2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1
2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8
2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9
2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6
2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7
2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6

 

 

The drought monitor pictured on( pic.1) shows similarities to 2009 and what could POSSIBLY be,insert from 2009 is THROUGH Feb,now if you see the the CPC 3-4  outlook(PIC2).

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/200902#NatOverview

Much of the country received below-average precipitation during the month, resulting in the eighth driest February for the contiguous United States. The areas with the driest anomaliesincluded the coastal Northeast to mid-Atlantic states, parts of the Southeast and southern Plains, and parts of the Rockies to Pacific Northwest. February was drier than normal across the southern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico, with the year-to-date drier than normal across thesoutheast. Most of the stations in Hawaii reported below-normal precipitation in February, resulting in little change to the drought areas. Beneficial rains in December improved the 3-month precipitation totals, but the last 12 months were generally dry. February was wet across much of Alaska, but dry along parts of the southern coast. The precipitation pattern for the last three months and last 12 months was mixed. Only a few areas in Alaska had below-average snowpack as of the end of February.

By the end of February, the core drought areas included:

  • south central Texas, where extreme to exceptional drought was entrenched;
  • parts of the southeastern U.S., with moderate to extreme drought;
  • portions of the northwestern Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley, where moderate to severe drought lingered;
  • parts of Nevada and California, with moderate to extreme drought; and
  • Hawaii, where severe to extreme drought continued across the central and eastern islands.

For the last week in February, according to USDM statistics, moderate to severe drought affected 10 percent of the Midwest; moderate to extreme drought affected 41 percent of the Southeast, 27 percent of the West, and 47 percent of Hawaii; and moderate to exceptional drought affected 43 percent of the South.

 

In 2009, this was an active severe season(pic3)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2009

 

We also during this year the had the tornado outbreak of April 9-11 where parts of the Valley was under a High Risk Area(Pic4)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_9–11,_2009

 

 

 

U S  Drought Monitor.png

WK34prcp gif  719×668 .png

Annual 2009 United States Tornado LSR Map   Tornadoes of 2009   Wikipedia.png

Convective Outlook April 10   Tornado outbreak of April 9–11  2009   Wikipedia.png

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The MJO before the severe outbreak in 2009 showed the MJO getting into the  IO(PHASE1) around ten days before.But the evolution of it compared to this MJO is entirely different

2009_JFM png  604×627 .png

Phase Diagrams for MJO Tracking.png

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Didn't know where to post this at,ENSO,Severe or winter ?But i'll post it here since it seems to have more severe relevance

3-4 week outlook by CPC don't have much confidence..They seem though to be  going with the Euro,but either way

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

 

Now going further into the severe season the Euro Monthly is going into the COD and staying there,but it's support is everywhere.

Now since talking severe,take away the CFS  forecast in the long range we see enhanced convection into the IO into the 2nd week of March.

 

Then to look into the extended for the ENSO,you see this what Eric Webb said.This would fit the timing of the MJO through into March as mentioned above

 

 

FOXHOLEMETS ORG   Home (1).png

13.png

22.png

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7 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Didn't know where to post this at,ENSO,Severe or winter ?But i'll post it here since it seems to have more severe relevance

3-4 week outlook by CPC don't have much confidence..They seem though to be  going with the Euro,but either way

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

 

Now going further into the severe season the Euro Monthly is going into the COD and staying there,but it's support is everywhere.

Now since talking severe,take away the CFS  forecast in the long range we see enhanced convection into the IO into the 2nd week of March.

 

Then to look into the extended for the ENSO,you see this what Eric Webb said.This would fit the timing of the MJO through into March as mentioned above

 

 

FOXHOLEMETS ORG   Home (1).png

13.png

22.png

Have been seeing some brief mentions for next Winter for a El Nino Modoki, is this an indication of that as well and or what are your thoughts?

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Weathertree...I am seeing some hints of a Nino developing.  Jeff mentioned there was some evidence that a developing Nino could reduce the severe season spring threats.  As for next winter though, the models are generally really bad with ENSO IMO.  I think they called for a weak Nino this winter and then backed off???   I think right now it will be tough to know the strength or placement of anomalies for next winter.  Generally by early fall we start to get some idea what the ENSO will look like.  

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Weathertree...I am seeing some hints of a Nino developing.  Jeff mentioned there was some evidence that a developing Nino could reduce the severe season spring threats.  As for next winter though, the models are generally really bad with ENSO IMO.  I think they called for a weak Nino this winter and then backed off???   I think right now it will be tough to know the strength or placement of anomalies for next winter.  Generally by early fall we start to get some idea what the ENSO will look like.  

Which is generally why the weather is just so fascinating. Not sure whether we will ever develop the capability to forecast much better than we are now honestly!

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Severe does take a drop Nino vs Nina.,Carver is right,last year around this time into March the models were showing a  potential moderate to strong Nino and what did we end up with,a Nina..lol

111.png

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Just now, jaxjagman said:

Severe does take a drop Nino vs Nina.,Carver is right,last year around this time into March the models were showing a  potential moderate to strng Nino and what did we end up with,a Nina..lol

111.png

Excellent point. The physics behind the models I know is way over my head, simply amazing that we can take an educated guess at it at all. Plus when you factor in the things that probably are not factored in like low solar and continued volcanic activity, heck, we might as well flip a coin!

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On this date:Feb 10-11,2009

 

Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and Michigan[edit]

A woodland area with numerous fallen trees
 
Tree damage from the EF1 tornado in Tennessee

In Missouri, high winds caused widespread damage and knocked out power to 7,629 residences. Several homes and businesses lost their windows due to 65 mph (105 km/h) wind gusts produced within squall lines.[79][108] In Huntsville, Alabama, a car carrying four people lost control on rain-slicked roads and crashed into a van, killing one of the occupants and injuring the other three.[109] Another fatality occurred in Kentucky when a utility worker was knocked over by high winds and fell 30 ft (9.1 m) to his death while trying to restore power.[101] Following the widespread power outages from a severe ice storm, an additional 161,588 residences lost power due to 60 mph (97 km/h) winds.[74]Flooding and high winds in Michigan knocked out power to about 57,000 residences.[78] In southern Michigan, upwards of 0.8 inches (2.0 cm) of rain fell, leading to faster snowmelt.[110] In Tennessee, several structures were damaged and numerous trees were knocked down, closing roads throughout the state as the squall line tracked eastward.[33]A total of 74,052 residences lost power due to the winds.[74] Winds gusting up to 85 mph (137 km/h) caused substantial damage in Rutherford County. Several commercial buildings had major roof damage, leaving $150,000 in damages.[111] Throughout Tennessee, damages from the storm system were estimated at $1.1 million.[90]

 

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My best guess is April could be a short but intense window for severe. March could be tempered if this SSW causes delayed effect blocking and cooler than normal temps. If the ECWMF is right March could be stormy, but it might be too warm. While I'm fading the SSW hype, I also think the Euro is too warm. 

April we should still have the La Nina signature which is correlated to severe. If it fades then May might calm down faster than usual in Dixie. Note overall May will still be the national peak. If the Euro is right March will get going quickly; otherwise, looks like we just have to get through April.

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Next Sunday the Euro and the Control for that matter pumps up the ridge in the east and has a slower progressive cold front of almost a day via the GFS.Not sure which is right but by the pattern we are in right now the Euro could be right.But the Euro and Control both show what could be a strong shortwave that effects the Valley next Sunday for some potential severe weather.The GFS tho is showing a shortwave further south Sat with it's progressive look,either way we could be seeing our first severe thunderstorms of the year upcoming.We're getting into Climo time into the Valley

049 png  935×665 .png

CIPS Extended Analog Guidance.png

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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Better agreement/consistency is evident at this time with respect to
   various medium-range model runs through a majority of the day 4-8
   period, as compared to 24 hours prior.  Models in general depict
   that a major short-wave trough -- digging across California and the
   Great Basin day 4 (Thursday) will eject east across the Desert
   Southwest/southern Rockies day 5, and then the central and southern
   Plains day 6 (Saturday).  While this feature is progged to
   weaken/deamplify with time due to persistence of southeastern U.S.
   ridging, surface lee cyclogenesis is expected over the southern High
   Plains early in the day which will deepen/shift quickly
   east-northeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest overnight.  Ahead of
   this system, low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico
   should prove sufficient for at least some warm-sector CAPE
   development which -- combined with what should be a favorable
   background lower- and middle-tropospheric wind field -- suggests
   that some severe weather risk may evolve Saturday.  While degree of
   instability may limit risk to some degree, ample evidence exists to
   suggest initial introduction of 15% severe weather probability from
   the Arklatex vicinity east across parts of the lower Mississippi and
   into the Tennessee Valleys.  

   As the weakening upper system shifts quickly east-northeast across
   the lower Great Lakes region day 7 (Sunday), expect the trailing
   surface front to weaken and become oriented increasingly
   west-to-east across the Gulf Coast region, suggestive of diminished
   severe potential.  In addition, model differences increasing through
   the end of the period result in reduced confidence with respect to
   the convective forecast through early next week.

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Ballsy call by the SPC to introduce a risk area for Day 6. I thought they were being overly bearish holding off on a Day 5 risk area last Thursday valid for today given what the Euro was advertising, but they ended up being spot-on.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

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Models can't get along.Euro was about 6 hrs slower and the GFS much stronger on the 0Z run, but , the GFS did close the gap on the 6Z run.Euro might be over doing the instabilities which it can tend to do at this time.

 

 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Model consensus is that a significant shortwave trough will eject
   northeast through the central Plains and middle MS Valley region
   (Day 5) Saturday and Saturday night. Some deamplification of this
   feature is expected, but model differences persist. GFS maintains a
   more amplified trough with a deeper surface low suggesting the
   potential for a greater severe threat compared to ECMWF, UKMET and
   the Canadian. In either case a few severe storms might evolve in
   vicinity of frontal zone from east TX into the lower MS and TN
   Valley region as the low-level jet strengthens and shifts northeast
   in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Storms may be
   ongoing along baroclinic zone over a portion of this region, with
   potential to intensify within zone of modest destabilization and
   forcing associated with the migrating low-level jet. Limiting
   factors are likelihood of widespread clouds and tendency for the
   approaching shortwave trough to weaken with deeper forcing likely
   remaining northwest of warm sector.

   Some severe threat might linger into day 6, but overall potential
   should decrease later day 6 into day 7 as a cold front moves into
   the northern Gulf coast area.

   ..Dial.. 02/20/2018

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I like the SPC discussion above. If one does not like severe weather, don't worry too much. Low clouds probably will not mix out, especially with ongoing precip. The 850 level is really warm which would actually prevent mixing; it does not promote instability this early in the season.

Wind fields look robust, but probably with some veer-back-veer VBV which reduces tornado risk. None of that is too important yet. My chips are on clouds and rain prevent big severe.

Then for those who like severe wx, it's only February. A loss in spring training does not count.

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