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jaxjagman

Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 210956
   SPC AC 210956

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the
   central Plains and middle MS Valley region (Day 4) Saturday and
   Saturday night. Some deamplification is expected, but the trough
   will take on a more negative tilt as it approaches the middle MS
   Valley. GFS is still the stronger solution with deeper cyclogenesis
   and suggests potential for a slightly more robust severe threat. In
   either case a forced line of potentially strong to severe storms
   might evolve in vicinity of cold front initially over northeast TX,
   before spreading into the lower MS and TN Valley regions as the
   low-level jet strengthens and shifts northeast through moistening
   warm sector. While vertical shear and overall character of the wind
   profiles should be more than adequate for organized severe storms,
   primary limiting factor appears to be a marginal thermodynamic
   environment given likelihood of widespread clouds and weak lapse
   rates.

   Some severe threat might linger into Sunday (day 5) over a portion
   of the Middle Atlantic, but confidence is not high enough at this
   time to introduce a categorical area. Overall severe potential
   should remain low day 6 into day 7 as a cold front settles into the
   northern Gulf coastal area.

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SIGTOR showing 45% out in parts of the  Ms and Ark,30% in parts of the Western Valley,Saturday.The GFS was slightly faster tonight.The VBV that Jeff talked about above is not near as bad today as it's been showing.

SPC SREF SREF_prob_combined_sigtor_.png

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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
   EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO
   VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday from a portion of
   northeast Texas through the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys.

   ...Northeast TX into the lower Mississippi Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys...

   A significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the
   central Plains and middle to upper MS Valley region Saturday and
   Saturday night while taking on a negative tilt. In response to
   forcing accompanying this feature, a surface low initially over the
   southern Plains will deepen as it develops northeast through the
   middle MS Valley, eventually reaching the Great Lakes toward the end
   of the period. Warm front extending east from the surface low will
   move northward, reaching the OH Valley Saturday night. A cold front
   initially across west TX will advance through the Southern Plains
   and middle to lower MS Valley during the day reaching the OH and TN
   Valleys Saturday night. A strengthening low-level jet resulting from
   the deepening cyclone will transport richer gulf moisture northward
   with low 60s F dewpoints as far as the OH Valley and mid to upper
   60s from east TX to the lower MS Valley. However, instability will
   probably remain marginal due to widespread clouds and modest lapse
   rates with MLCAPE likely to remain below 1000 J/kg over most of the
   warm sector. 

   A forced line of potentially strong to severe storms should evolve
   in vicinity of cold front initially over north central or northeast
   TX into southeast OK during the day. Activity will subsequently move
   into the lower MS, TN and OH Valley regions as the low-level jet
   strengthens to 60+ kt and shifts northeast through moistening warm
   sector. Vertical shear and overall character of wind profiles will
   be more than adequate for organized severe storms, with potential
   for LEWP, bowing segments and a few embedded supercells capable of
   damaging wind and a few tornadoes. An upgrade to higher
   probabilities might be needed in later outlooks once uncertainties
   regarding the thermodynamic environment have been mitigated.

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Parameters in the Mid South have improved overall on NWP. Unfortunately for chase concerns, initiation is shown back over the Ozarks instead of the Delta. 

Now appears morning rain will lift north of I-40, perhaps to Kentucky. Boundaries should remain over West Tenn. Also back into Arkansas of course. Low clouds should at least partially break up. 

Wind fields look great. VBV is indeed less shown on NWP. Wish such overall robust kinematics, a little VBV would not be a deal killer anyway. Finally low levels look to back as the trough approaches.

I expect Enhanced by Day 2 (perhaps update if not first one), but ENH should be it. Biggest issue is Ozarks v Delta. Welp, at least some good college hoops is on Saturday.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
   VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
   INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and
   move east-northeastward on Saturday from parts of northeast Texas
   into the lower to mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Tornadoes,
   wind damage and hail will be possible with the more intense storms.

   ...Arklatex/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley...
   An upper-level trough will move from the Rockies into the Great
   Plains on Saturday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in
   place at the start of the period from East Texas extending
   northeastward into southern parts of the mid Mississippi Valley.
   Elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing in the vicinity of
   Dallas/Fort Worth around 12Z. This convection is forecast to expand
   in coverage, moving eastward into the Arklatex where a 40 to 60 kt
   low-level jet will strengthen. As surface temperatures warm during
   the day, the convection is forecast to gradually become
   surface-based. A cluster of storms should become organized as it
   moves east-northeastward from far northeast Texas across southern
   and eastern Arkansas during the afternoon. This activity should
   eventually affect northwest Mississippi, western Tennessee and far
   western Kentucky by evening.

   Ahead of the system moving into the Great Plains, a 75 to 90 kt
   mid-level jet will translate east-northeastward from the southern
   Plains into the Ozarks. This feature will create strong deep-layer
   shear profiles favorable for severe storms along the southeastern
   periphery of the mid-level jet. Strong lift and 0-6 km shear in the
   55 to 65 kt range, evident on forecast soundings, will support
   supercell development. Supercells that interact with the western
   edge of the low-level jet from far northeast Texas into southern and
   central Arkansas will have tornado potential. NAM forecast soundings
   across southern Arkansas at 21Z on Saturday show 0-3 km storm
   relative helicities near 300 m2/s2 which should be favorable for a
   few strong tornadoes. Supercells and the stronger multicells
   embedded in the cluster should also be associated with wind damage
   and hail. The wind damage threat could increase as the cluster
   transitions into a line segment, moving eastward from eastern
   Arkansas into northwest Mississippi, western Tennessee and far
   western Kentucky by Saturday evening.
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SPC is amped 300 m2/s2 and strong tornado wording. They seem to like southern Ark. Probably for instability. I still like the low level kinematics near Memphis better. Issue will be getting things juxtaposed right (or wrong depending on your perspective). 

I see the main line starting over the Ozarks which is a no-fly zone - worse than almost anything this part of Dixie. Lead line might go near Memphis but too early for me to get there and probably before strongest kinematics anyway. Finally storm motion will be very fast, hard to manage. Given that Kansas is at Texas Tech mid-afternoon, and the game is for the Conference Title, I will not chase this set-up.

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ay 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
   TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTS TO THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the southern
   Plains Saturday morning and shift northeastward towards the Ohio
   Valley through Saturday night. Several of these storms will likely
   be severe, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being the primary
   threat. A few instances of large hail will be possible as well.

   ...Synopsis...
   Within a cyclonic-flow regime across the western US, a robust
   shortwave trough will eject northeast across the central Plains,
   while acquiring a negative tilt as it approaches the upper Midwest.
   In response, mid-level heights will fall over much of the Plains and
   Mississippi Valley through the day. The surface pattern will feature
   a deepening low lifting north from the Mississippi Valley towards
   the upper Great Lakes. Trailing to its south, a cold front will
   accelerate eastward towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, while
   the preceding warm sector advances northward from the Mid-South to
   portions of southern Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

   ...Arklatex to the Ohio Valley...
   As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues northeast towards
   the upper Midwest, a strong low-level jet is forecast to organize
   across the Arklatex through the mid-day hours, before strengthening
   and translating northeast towards the Ohio Valley through the
   overnight hours. In conjunction with this evolution, the surface
   warm sector (characterized by dew points in the lower/mid 60s along
   its northern fringes) will stream northward, reaching areas from
   southeastern Missouri to southern Indiana through the period. South
   of the warm front, despite little/modest low-level heating and
   related buoyancy, favorably moist low levels should support upwards
   of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across parts of the Mid-South by afternoon,
   with values decreasing to 200-400 J/kg across the Ohio Valley.

   Countering these lower values of buoyancy, a strong kinematic
   profile will evolve across much of the region, especially from
   northern Arkansas to the lower Ohio Valley. Within this region,
   925-850mb flow around 60-70 kt will contribute to sizable values of
   storm-relative helicity through the evening hours. In turn, as a
   narrow band of convection organizes from the Arklatex to the Ozarks
   through the day, shear profiles should encourage several bowing/LEWP
   structures, with embedded supercells possible. Furthermore, forecast
   soundings and high-res guidance depict a considerable component of
   low-level shear perpendicular to several bowing segments, enhancing
   the potential for tornadoes -- a few of which could be strong --
   during the afternoon and evening hours. These cells will then race
   towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the evening and
   overnight. Moist adiabatic low-level profiles, while not conducive
   for high values of buoyancy, may still prove favorable for a few
   swaths of damaging winds (with an attendant line-embedded tornado
   threat), as any low-level rotating elements will enhance upward
   vertical motion and convective intensity.

   Outside of the main band of convection, although forcing for ascent
   will not be particularly strong earlier in the day, an isolated
   discrete supercell or two may form across the Mid-South within
   warm/moist low-level confluence Saturday afternoon. Favorable
   storm-relative helicity and effective shear would support a
   conditional damaging wind and tornado threat during this time frame
   as well.

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Euro is pretty stout later next week too, but in the Deep South which is more favored by climo. I'm not sure whether to wish for that or pray against it.

TODAY Mid South I am reluctantly staying home. Some CAMS - convective allowing (high res) models show lead cells. My gut says they will not be supercells. They are ahead of the best low level shear. If I'm wrong, it would not be the first time LOL. NAM and ARW versions of the WRF both have mainly linear. HRRR is the one introducing cells ahead, but I'm not biting.

Plus I got two very important college basketball games on ESPN mid-afternoon. Also, that thing next week...

UPDATE: Clarksville tornado warning had exceptionally long lead time from the NWS. Great job in Dixie at night!

On a brighter note, Kansas is now the solo record holder for consecutive regular season Conference Championships!

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Probably need to watch the Mid month possibly.Trough  being shown  right now going through E/Asia  that could possibly pump up the SER again.Plus the MJO is leaving Africa and headed into the IO.

The dashboard also has been showing the last several days this would be the time frame where severe season gets into another gear  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/CFS_Dashboard/

ECMWF Model   Tropical Tidbits.png

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

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xcessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1016 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

VALID 15Z Wed Feb 28 2018 - 12Z Thu Mar 01 2018


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 WSW OTH 35 W SXT 20 E CEC 35 ENE ACV 10 ENE ACV 35 SSE ACV
45 N UKI 15 ENE UKI STS 50 WSW STS.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 NE LEX 20 ENE JKL 20 SSE MKJ 15 ESE VUJ 30 N CAE AHN
10 SSE GAD 25 N TCL 30 SSW GWO 10 NW OCH 25 WNW LHB BMQ
25 WNW 6R9 30 SW BWD 15 WNW SEP LUD 35 E AQR 35 E FSM 15 NW ARG
15 SSW CIR 15 SE OWB 30 N LOU 50 NE LEX.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 N DEQ 10 W JBR 50 SSE PAH 35 NE MQY 20 N OQT 35 SSE 1A6 AVL
GSP GVL 10 SSW 3A1 40 E GWO 40 S ELD 25 ESE PWG 25 SSE 7F9
15 E SEP 10 NNE TKI 35 N LBR 35 N DEQ.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NE DEQ 20 S M19 35 ENE MKL 25 SW CSV 1A5 25 NNE 47A
20 ESE HSV 25 NNE GWO 10 S 4F4 25 W TYR SLR 30 NE DEQ.


...Upgrade to High Risk for parts of OK/TX/AR/LA/MS/TN...
...Southern Plains through the Southeast States...

WPC coordinated with local offices to upgrade a portion of the
Moderate Risk area to High Risk. We are concerned at the
consistency among recent HRRR runs, in tandem with some of the
better performing hi-res models (NSSL WRF, WRF-ARW2) and their 00z
runs, all of which point to areal average 3 to 5 inches of rain
along the axis that is best supported by GFS and RAP mass fields.
The RAP indicates persistent 925-850mb convergence setting up from
northeast Texas across southern/central Arkansas into western
Tennessee during the late afternoon and evening hours as upstream
height falls impinge on the edge of rich Gulf moisture / ahead of
an advancing Pacific cold front. Deep west to southwesterly flow
affords the opportunity for cell training, very likely leading to
embedded amounts greater than 5 inches, especially owing to
sizable CAPE and PW values spiking above 1.50 inches in the
pre-convective environment / at least 3 standard deviations above
the late February climatology.

Given antecedent rainfall, 5 to 10 inches in much of this area
over the past week, there will be a very high percentage of
surface runoff. Forecast models produce peak hourly rain rates
approaching 2 inches per hour, which may lead to damaging and
life-threatening flash flooding given the saturated pre-conditions
on the ground.

Very large Slight and Moderate risk areas remain in place
extending back westward into north Texas, where the event will
initiate this afternoon, and extending farther east, where
antecedent conditions are not quite so wet, but where heavy rain
rates may exceed flash flood guidance over the southeast states
and southern Appalachians through tonight.

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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Some organizing supercells moving towards north-central Alabama. Weak rotation but nothing yet tornadic.37b9739e58d4d8ec42d9addcb193c4ab.gif

That does not look good.  Any updates on those cells and what happened on the ground?

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A pretty severe flash flooding event is setting up over Chattanooga tonight. Training cells + saturated ground = trouble. Rapidly approaching 3" in the bucket and getting torrential rain right now. 

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That does not look good.  Any updates on those cells and what happened on the ground?


Those super cells earlier produced some minor wind damage reports but nothing tornadic fortunately. Probably haven't seen the last FFWs tonight though. Some serious heavy rainfall in these cells over NE AL and NW GA.
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0054
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1132 PM EST WED FEB 28 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX, AR, NORTHERN MS, & TN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 010431Z - 010901Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-4" OVER
SATURATED SOILS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AND/OR PROLONG FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A BROAD OVERRUNNING PATTERN HAS SET UP FROM NORTHEAST
TX ACROSS AR AND EXTENDING INTO TN WITHIN A REGION OF OVERLAPPING
850 HPA, 750 HPA, AND 650 FRONTOGENESIS PER THE 18Z GFS GUIDANCE. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.7" ARE SEEN HERE PER GPS
VALUES.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED AS THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW HAS A FETCH FROM OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW IS OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE WIND FLOW IS FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOVE 2,000
FEET PER THE LITTLE ROCK AR VAD WIND PROFILE.

WHILE MUCAPE VALUES OF 500+ J/KG ARE SEEN ACROSS NORTHEAST TX,
PLACES FARTHER AFIELD ACROSS AR AND NORTHERN MS HAVE VALUES OF
100-200 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSES.  WHILE THESE VALUES ARE MEAGER,
SOIL CONDITIONS OVER A VAST PORTION OF THE AREA ARE SATURATED DUE
TO RAINFALL BEING 300-700% OF NORMAL OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS,
WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURES ACROSS CENTRAL AR, PATCHES OF
NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK.  EVEN WITH THIS LITTLE INSTABILITY,
HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 0.5" ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD COMPROMISE
SATURATED SOILS.  THREE HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
PRACTICALLY ZERO ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AR AND ARE LOW FROM THE
ARKLATEX ACROSS MUCH OF TN.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES
LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-4" OVER THE MOST SENSITIVE AREA IN AR WITH
LOWER, THOUGH STILL THREATENING, AMOUNTS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL
TN.  FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY.

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STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS HEAVY RAINFALL
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM CST THU MAR 01 2018

...HEAVY RAIN STRETCHES FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER SOME
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TEN
DAYS...

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES AND FLOOD ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 200 AM CST...A SURFACE LOW OF 1006 MB OR 29.71 INCHES WAS
LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED
EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TEXAS. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA. MODERATE RAIN SPREAD NORTH OF THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...KENTUCKY...NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA.

...SELECTED PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 800 AM
CST TUE FEB 27 THROUGH 200 AM CST THU MAR 01...

...ALABAMA...
BRIDGEPORT 4 SSW                      3.75                    
ESTILL FORK                           3.65                    
HUNTSVILLE                            3.58                    
NEW MARKET                            3.25                    
FLORENCE                              3.19                    
MADISON                               3.15                    
SCOTTSBORO MUNI ARPT                  3.14                    
DECATUR - PRYOR FIELD                 2.59                    
NORTHWEST AL RGNL ARPT                2.25                    

...ARKANSAS...
SHERIDAN                              4.96                    
DE QUEEN 4 NW                         4.48                    
NUNELY 3 SE                           4.47                    
LITTLE DIXIE 1 E                      4.32                    
JESSIEVILLE 6 N                       4.29                    
HOT SPRINGS NATIONAL PARK             3.83                    
LITTLE ROCK ADAMS FIELD               3.83                    
TEXARKANA RGNL - WEBB FIELD           3.18                    

...GEORGIA...
EPWORTH 5 SW                          4.04                    
ELLIJAY                               4.00                    
FLINTSTONE 1 NNE                      3.63                    
TRENTON                               3.30                    
TOCCOA                                3.05                    
FORT OGLETHORPE                       2.91                    

...LOUISIANA...
SHREVEPORT                            1.68                    
CANEY                                 1.53                    
BELLEVUE 2 N                          1.45                    

...MISSISSIPPI...
CORINTH 4 W                           4.78                    
HOLLY SPRINGS 4 N                     3.94                    
WINBORN                               3.65                    
FALCON 7 W                            3.51                    
NESBIT                                3.23                    
TISHOMINGO                            2.47                    

...NORTH CAROLINA...
MURPHY                                2.78                    
RANGER                                2.71                    
UNAKA                                 2.55                    
BEAVER CREEK                          2.43                    

...OKLAHOMA...
BROKEN BOW                            4.19                    
IDABEL                                3.22                    
VALLIANT                              2.89                    
DURANT                                2.00                    
CLOUDY                                1.64                    

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
ANDREW PICKENS                        2.03                    
SENECA                                1.88                    
CLEMSON-OCONEE COUNTY ARPT            1.86                    

...TENNESSEE...
WAYNESBORO                            5.13                    
SOUTH PITTSBURG                       4.90                    
BOLIVAR                               4.75                    
BELLS 2 SW                            4.66                    
LEXINGTON                             4.09                    
SAVANNAH/HARDIN CO                    3.99                    
MEMPHIS INTL ARPT                     3.69                    
CHATTANOOGA LOVELL FIELD              3.64                    
JACKSON MCKELLAR-SIPES RGNL ARPT      3.64                    

...TEXAS...
ALLEN                                 5.11                    
DALLAS FORT WORTH INTL ARPT           4.76                    
CLARKSVILLE                           3.22                    
HALTOM CITY 1 ENE                     3.01                    
BLUE RIDGE                            2.88                    
PARIS - COX FIELD                     2.73                    
DENTON                                2.19                    
TEXARKANA 10 SW                       2.11                    


THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...IS EXPECTED. AS LARGE PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST TEN DAYS OR
SO...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND RIVERS ARE IN HIGH FLOOD STAGES
ALREADY. THUS...A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...RIVER FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 900 AM CST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

TATE
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2% Strong! Or was it less than 2%? We need Tyler on this Board. Here is how those radar images turned out - tornado on the ground.

Really crazy part is that's almost exactly where I documented a tornado August 31, 2017. Mile marker 30 on I-22 for me.

 

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Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-020515-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1106 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

...Spring Flood Outlook...
...Above Average Risk for Flooding This Spring Across Middle
Tennessee...

Existing Conditions...
Middle Tennessee and much of the Mid-South have been dealing with
recent heavy rainfall, resulting in an elevated flood threat for
the area in the short-term. Recent temperatures have been above
normal as well, and many trees and plants are coming out of winter
hibernation. The warmer and wetter trend is expected to continue
this spring creating an above average risk for future flooding.


Streamflows...
Current streamflows are well above normal in due to recent
rainfall, with many rivers above Flood Stage. Water levels on
these rivers, along with the smaller creeks and streams will
subside over the next few days but levels on the lower reaches of
the Cumberland River and Tennessee River will remain high through
the first next week or two of March.


Rainfall...
Precipitation has been near to above normal for most of the fall
and winter, with January being the only significantly dry month
across the area. Here are some rainfall totals across Middle
Tennessee...

  Nashville  Clarksville Crossville
   October    3.48 (+0.44)   7.18 (+3.27)   6.23 (+3.19)
   November   4.46 (+0.15)   2.34 (-2.24)   4.24 (-0.86)
   December   4.56 (+0.32)   4.38 (-0.65)   4.56 (-0.39)
   January    1.63 (-2.12)   3.59 (+0.28)   1.68 (-3.08)
   February  10.91 (+6.97)   9.71 (+5.54)  10.48 (+6.02)


Climate Outlooks...
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center indicates
there is a higher probability of above normal temperatures and
above normal precipitation across the area for the months of
March, April, and May.


Summary...
Overall, the spring flood threat across Middle Tennessee is well
above average in the short-term due to the ongoing flooding and
the saturated grounds. An early green-up of vegetation will help
diminish the flood threat for the rest of the spring, however,
the higher probability above normal precipitation creates an above
average risk for flooding through the end of May.

$$

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

2% Strong! Or was it less than 2%? We need Tyler on this Board. Here is how those radar images turned out - tornado on the ground.

Really crazy part is that's almost exactly where I documented a tornado August 31, 2017. Mile marker 30 on I-22 for me.

 

That's pretty cool.

 
 

 

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On 2/26/2018 at 10:44 PM, jaxjagman said:

Probably need to watch the Mid month possibly.Trough  being shown  right now going through E/Asia  that could possibly pump up the SER again.Plus the MJO is leaving Africa and headed into the IO.

The dashboard also has been showing the last several days this would be the time frame where severe season gets into another gear  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/CFS_Dashboard/

ECMWF Model   Tropical Tidbits.png

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

It's still there, but some what better signs but a day later than the earlier map,though it's not really that far off.Trough going through East Asia with a system going through China into the Yellow Sea.This would pump up the heights into China and Mongolia which should if it works out would pump up a +PNA ridge if it were to correlate right.Teleconnection would also support a +PNA ridge mid month,we'll see

ECMWF Model   Tropical Tidbits (1).png

ESRL   PSD   Daily Forecasts of Teleconnection Indices  from ESRL PSD Reforecast2 Project.png

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Temps should warm up the 3rd week of March. Late March is getting close to prime time for Dixie Alley. Above scenarios are reasonable.

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20 years ago next month was the famous Nashville, Tennessee tornado that was captured by WSMV Channel 4 and NewsChannel 5 as it moved through.

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