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1/8/18 Wintry Mix Event OBS and last minute forecasts.


John1122

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Trying to keep the longer range thread for forecasting.  

Now cast situation here.

Temps from the Plateau and East seem to be between 28 and 32 with wet bulbs in the low to mid 20s. Ground is extremely frozen and any precip that falls should produce a nice sheen.  Unfortunately west of the plateau the WAA was unfettered with temps from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Will have to see if the WWA can verify for places like Cookeville. 

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

As Jax pointed out, the WAA is a beast. Crossville has warmed from 31 to 33 with clear skies. We will see if they can wet bulb or not. 

Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

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Just now, Kasper said:

Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

The precip to our west looks fairly robust. I would think if precipitation over preforms that means more WAA. Winds have been from the south here all day. 

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Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

If WAA is stronger than modeled, that would be very rare. In fact it’s usually the opposite.


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5 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

The mountain tops will always warm faster and Crossville is a pretty prime spot for warming because it's comparitively flat. But they still were fprecast to get down to 27 tonight.  On the west side, Cookeville is forecast to hit 32 but they've warmed to 37. 

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