showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good morning all. 6z GFS gives us a little love Wednesday. I’ll stick with what the Euro has been selling... The 06Z GFS actually took a good step towards the Euro. If the GEFS follows suite we should see an uptick with the snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 LWX still not sold on a big total: LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Alberta clipper will cross the area Tue-Tue night with snow showers possible. The low and associated cdfnt will move offshore by 12Z Wed. A mid-upper level trough over the Great Lks Tue will sharpen as it crosses the mid-Atlc region Wed night. Sfc cyclogenesis has been indicated by Euro/GFS over the past few cycles with the Euro remaining the more consistent model with respect to strength, track, and timing of sfc and upper level features although on this latest cycle the Euro trended drier and faster to move the low out to sea Wed night. A period of light snow remains possible Tue night through Wed night with the best chances of accumulating snow over southeast MD and the eastern shore. Turning brisk on Thu with a warming trend expected to begin next Fri as heights begin to rise over the eastern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 And the GFS call for a storm that none of us here would want (I want the snow to disappear, GFS is calling for an inch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Eps precip maps took a noticeable step back in our area from 12z. And looking at total precip on them, I can see why HM was not gung ho for our area even after the 12z run. Frankly, everyone needs to lower expectations because this event looks sadly similar to our prior events this winter. We could get lucky, but after last week, anybody feeling lucky for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps precip maps took a noticeable step back in our area from 12z. And looking at total precip on them, I can see why HM was not gung ho for our area even after the 12z run. Frankly, everyone needs to lower expectations because this event looks sadly similar to our prior events this winter. We could get lucky, but after last week, anybody feeling lucky for snow? It's frustrating but at least this winter isn't like a lot of recent ones where we punt half the winter because of temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 This is a slight change in speed? from 0z. Don't know f it means much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: @showmethesnow is back...good to see ya...mist your input man. Yea..6z had some baby step improvements at h5 for the coastal . That's good enough for me . Not that I haven't had some interest in the possibilities it's just that I've been somewhat busy the last few days. Been keeping half an eye on the models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps precip maps took a noticeable step back in our area from 12z. And looking at total precip on them, I can see why HM was not gung ho for our area even after the 12z run. Frankly, everyone needs to lower expectations because this event looks sadly similar to our prior events this winter. We could get lucky, but after last week, anybody feeling lucky for snow? I don't think many have high expectations, I think it is more that many can see the possibilities and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Eps precip maps took a noticeable step back in our area from 12z. And looking at total precip on them, I can see why HM was not gung ho for our area even after the 12z run. Frankly, everyone needs to lower expectations because this event looks sadly similar to our prior events this winter. We could get lucky, but after last week, anybody feeling lucky for snow? I wasn't in love with the trend towards a weaker slower developing coastal. Fighting that is harder then seeing it clobber NC and just needing a north trend. I'm not blind to both this years and ninas trends. That's how it becomes another miss to the northeast if that trend continues. I much preferred seeing the heavy stuff to our south vs east and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I wasn't in love with the trend towards a weaker slower developing coastal. Fighting that is harder then seeing it clobber NC and just needing a north trend. I'm not blind to both this years and ninas trends. That's how it becomes another miss to the northeast if that trend continues. I much preferred seeing the heavy stuff to our south vs east and northeast. I was trying to tell you that yesterday when I said the 12z euro needed to be even more west. The writing is on the wall. Enjoy your trace Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The overrunning thing doesn't even seem to be that great across guidance. Sure the Euro has something but everything else is an inch or less with the GGEM showing nothing at all. This very easily could end up being a swing and a miss with nothing but a few flurries. What I'm hoping for is to maximize the overrunning and then get some precip thrown back our way from a developing slp. What will probably happen is that the overrunning dies over the mountains and the storm forms to far east and slams the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Better a swing and a miss than no swing at allSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I don't see why cold can't sustain, maybe the globe is really warm. The warm up in a week may only be brief. -AO is best pattern for snowstorms. Pacific -PNA overdone big time, not sure it makes such a big difference here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Pattern is transitory now and for next 3 days. I've found there are difference before/after modeled blocking happens, the mood and all. Maybe a long range snowstorm will show up in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 06z ICON made another shift towards the Euro. Slows down the trough and is starting to show a similar qpf max. Not a great run verbatim for the cities, but a good trend. Here are the last three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 27 minutes ago, Ji said: I was trying to tell you that yesterday when I said the 12z euro needed to be even more west. The writing is on the wall. Enjoy your trace Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I think I get what your saying but the problem isn't needing a west trend on the euro. It's that a lot of members develop late so things don't get going until northeast of us. If the euro had trended much more west of the 12z we would rain. 0z shifted east and weaker. Now we need a west trend but I don't need it west of yesterdays 12z run. Stronger quicker development yes. Given the seasonal trend it spooks me when I see it developing late and clobbering New England on some of the guidance. More then seeing it clobber RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 There is still a lot of time here. More shifts will come. Don't read too much into my concerns but I tend to analyze each threat from a "what could go wrong" pov and when I see any trend towards that I cringe. But trends can reverse every run. And none of this even matters if the euro isn't right about the deeper cutoff h5 presentation. If the other guidance is correct then there is no coastal threat anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 hours ago, yoda said: We take and run with it Here's to hoping that the Euro is back to it's kingly ways Agreed. That would be 5 times higher than any event this year out here. I would take this and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is still a lot of time here. More shifts will come. Don't read too much into my concerns but I tend to analyze each threat from a "what could go wrong" pov and when I see any trend towards that I cringe. But trends can reverse every run. And none of this even matters if the euro isn't right about the deeper cutoff h5 presentation. If the other guidance is correct then there is no coastal threat anyways. After last week (and certainly if this storm swings northeast), is it not wise to even expect anything for future threats that show up unless we see something that says "This is not likely to go northeast"...Like what would we need to prevent that in this blasted northern stream pattern orchestrated by La Niña? Just incredibly fortunate timing? (how'd we pull 1995-96 off? Lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 hours ago, Scraff said: Good morning all. 6z GFS gives us a little love Wednesday. I’ll stick with what the Euro has been selling... Looks like close to a lock to get some snow out of the front end part with the big trough moving in... around here you should be thankful for any snow you get. The 500mb has not been great yet really for the coastal.. yesterday 12z Euro looked close to good but like metro we know what that often means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: After last week (and certainly if this storm swings northeast), is it not wise to even expect anything for future threats that show up unless we see something that says "This is not likely to go northeast"...Like what would we need to prevent that in this blasted northern stream pattern orchestrated by La Niña? Just incredibly fortunate timing? (how'd we pull 1995-96 off? Lol) Live by a simple rule- all northern stream systems favor a north trend between the med and short range. Could be nw or ne but that general rule applies to all NS stuff regardless of enso. However, not all trend unfavorably. If accept that as a hard and fast rule then it will make you look bad over time. You don't need to go all the way back to 95-96 to find success. 14-15 was all north trend until it wasnt. Then it snowed mutiple times over a fairly short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Live by a simple rule- all northern stream systems favor a north trend between the med and short range. Could be nw or ne but that general rule applies to all NS stuff regardless of enso. However, not all trend unfavorably. If accept that as a hard and fast rule then it will make you look bad over time. You don't need to go all the way back to 95-96 to find success. 14-15 was all north trend until it wasnt. Then it snowed mutiple times over a fairly short period of time. The north trend is usually unbeatable except when storms are south of us. Then it's a flip of a coin at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ian said: The north trend is usually unbeatable except when storms are south of us. Then it's a flip of a coin at best. True....lol. The worst thing about next week is someone is going to get 2-3" and be very sad and mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: True....lol. The worst thing about next week is someone is going to get 2-3" and be very sad and mad. At this point, 2-3” would feel almost like 20-30”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 At this point, 2-3” would feel almost like 20-30”. If you get 2-3" and someone else gets 20-30" you won't be saying thatSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 New thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: True....lol. The worst thing about next week is someone is going to get 2-3" and be very sad and mad. Someone lol you spelled it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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